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Projecting supply and demand related to bioenergy

Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI. Projecting supply and demand related to bioenergy. Topics: 2010 RPA Forest Assessment U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs .

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Projecting supply and demand related to bioenergy

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  1. Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI Projecting supply and demand related to bioenergy

  2. Topics: 2010 RPA Forest Assessment U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs

  3. The U.S. Forest Service produces 50-year projections of forest resource trends in the RPA Assessment reports every five years: Recent RPA Assessment Reports (2002, 2007) 2010 RPA Forest Assessment

  4. P S RPA research includes long-range modeling of trends in wood supply and demand D 2010 RPA Forest Assessment Q

  5. Developing Long-Range • Forest Product Market • Projections for the 2010 • RPA Assessment . . . • Approach: • Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) • U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) • RPA Scenarios (based on IPCC SRES) • Linkages to other RPA Models . . .

  6. 2010 RPA Models and Scenario Analysis IPCC Global Scenarios Socioeconomic Variables Bioenergy Forecasts Climate Forecasts Global Forest Products Model US Forest Products Module (USFPM) Translation / Downscaling Translation / Downscaling Timber harvest & supply Domestic Macroeconomics and Demographics Forecasts Forest Dynamics Model Forest area supply Land Use Model Forecasted Forest Conditions and Land Use Forecasted Wood Products and Timber Outputs and prices Carbon Accounting Ecosystem Services Wildlife, Water, Recreation, Forage Landscape Structure

  7. For the 2010 RPA Assessment, we developed the “U.S. Forest Products Module” (USFPM) within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM): 2010 RPA Forest Assessment

  8. Rationale for global model & linkages: • Globalization of forest product markets • Global expansion of biomass energy • Forest impacts of global climate change • Global forest & market interactions 2010 RPA Forest Assessment

  9. RPA Assessment Objectives: To Provide Long-Range Information (50-year projections) about the Status and Trends of the Nation’s Renewable Resources on Forests and Grasslands ----------------------------------------------- Special focus of 2010 RPA Assessment • IPCC Global Socioeconomic and Climate Scenarios . . . with global bioenergy outlook 2010 RPA Forest Assessment

  10. Some basics about USFPM • (U.S. Forest Products Module for 2010 RPA): • We built USFPM to run inside the GFPM (when we run USFPM we also run the global analysis) • USFPM expands what was originally a single region in the GFPM (USA among 180 other countries) • USFPM models timber supply, timber harvest, and forest product production in the three U.S. subregions (North, South, West):

  11. We model U.S. wood supply and demand at several market levels in USFPM . . . Harvest Mills Timber Product Outputs (delivered logs & chips) Timber (standing trees, or stumpage) Forest Product s

  12. We model “wood fuel feedstock” demand = harvested fuelwood and fuel residues. . . Harvest Mills TPO Timber Fuelwood Harvest Fuel Residues Wood Fuel Feedstock

  13. Compared to the GFPM, USFPM has a much more complete regional supply structure for wood and wood fiber, with base year (2006) timber supplies calibrated precisely to Forest Service regional FIA data and TPO data by species group: GFPM Industrial Roundwood Fuelwood Other Indust. Rndwd. Other Fiber Pulp Wastepaper USFPM Softwood Sawtimber Hardwood Sawtimber Softwood Non-Sawtimber Hardwood Non-Sawtimber Other Fiber Pulp Recovered Paper Softwood Ag. SRWC Hardwood Ag. SRWC Mill Residues Sawlogs/Veneer logs Other Indust. Rndwd Harvest Residue Fuel Feedstock Pulpwood/Comp.

  14. FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM (corresponding to data in RPA “Forest Resources” report, GTR-WO-78 ): • Sawtimber & Non-Sawtimber harvests (HW/SW) • Timber Product Outputs per unit of timber harvest • Harvest Residues per unit of timber harvest • Fuel & Fiber (Mill) Residue outputs (HW/SW) • Forest Inventories & Net Annual Growth (HW/SW) (GTR-WO-78)

  15. Sawlogs Pulpwood/Composite Logging Residue Fiber Residue Fuel Residue Fuel Feedstock USFPM also allows “cascading” economic substitution of raw materials into fiber or energy products based on prices and costs – i.e. if demand or prices for fuel or pulpwood become high enough, they can consume higher value inputs: Agric. SRWC 60% of logging residue can be recovered and used for fuel feedstock, but this requires a price higher than current fuelwood price, to pay for residue recovery expense

  16. FIA/TPO data relevant to bioenergy in USFPM include . . . Fuelwood Harvest & Logging Residue supplies, modeled as “by-products” of timber harvest activities in USFPM Fuel Residue (mill residue) supply, modeled in USFPM as “by-products” of forest product production activities Fuel Feedstock demand = Total wood demand for energy including fuelwood, fuel residues, and “cascading” supplies of pulpwood, SRWC, logging residues, etc. Projecting supply and demand related to bioenergy

  17. Summary USFPM model developed for 2010 RPA using FIA/TPO fuelwood harvest, fuel residue and logging residue data USFPM also models potential “cascading” use of logging residues, pulpwood, Ag. SRWC, and even sawlogs for energy (but only if economical to do so) The “Fuel Feedstock Demand” encompasses all wood demands for energy (not differentiated by end use) Projecting supply and demand related to bioenergy

  18. RPA Wood Energy Scenarios (IPCC)

  19. According to IPCC (and RPA scenarios), the peaking of global petroleum output will occur within the next couple of decades . . .

  20. {

  21. ~6X ~5X ~2X Projections calibrated to 6 EJ primary biomass energy in 2000 (as in B2 scenario)

  22. Massive (~6X) increase in U.S. wood fuel feedstock demand (2010-2060) is a feature of A1B scenario. Energy demands eat into pulpwood, mill residues & harvest residues . . .

  23. Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) more than triples(!) in A1 scenario, with expanding wood energy & net exports:

  24. Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) is lower in the A2 scenario, with lower wood energy and lower net exports:

  25. Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) is lowest in the B2 scenario, with not quite a doubling in harvest by 2060:

  26. Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs USFPM calibrated to current FIA/TPO data (WO-GTR-78) does not require additional wood bioenergy data However, if bioenergy use expands, future RPA models (2015 RPA?) may need more detailed wood energy data, such as harvest and residue volumes by more detailed wood energy categories (conventional fuelwood, wood for fuel pellets, wood biomass burned for electric power, wood biomass for liquid fuels, etc.) Projecting supply and demand related to bioenergy

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