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Global Cotton Market Outlook

Global Cotton Market Outlook. Zeki Sahin BCI Istanbul – 13.10.14. Topics : Paul Reinhart AG Supply / Demand situation Technical analysis Outlook. About us: Reinhart is a leading worldwide cotton merchant founded in 1788 H eadquarter in Winterthur / Switzerland

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Global Cotton Market Outlook

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  1. Global Cotton Market Outlook Zeki Sahin BCI Istanbul – 13.10.14

  2. Topics: • Paul Reinhart AG • Supply / Demand situation • Technical analysis • Outlook

  3. About us: • Reinhart is a leading worldwide cotton merchant founded in 1788 • Headquarter in Winterthur / Switzerland • Family ownedcompany (7th Generation) • Annual turnover about 500’000ts (lint) • Involved in sustainablyproducedcotton (BCI, CMIA, Fair Trade, Organic) / 4–5 % of turnover

  4. US Dollar Index, daily, 1 year back

  5. Cotton futuresmostactivemonthcontinuation, monthly, 30 years back

  6. Cotton futuresmostactivemonthcontinuation, weekly, 5 years back

  7. Cotton futuresmostactivemonthcontinuation, daily, 1 year back

  8. Market Outlook season 2014/15: • China: watch the governmentpolicy, imports will bereduced, lessquotasavailable, supportpriceforfarmersremains high, competitiveness of millsremainschallenging. • Producers do not like currentpricesandseekforgovernmentalsupport (China, India (MSP), USA (USDA Loanprogram), Greece (EU subsidy), Brazil andothers). Prices areclosetoproductioncost. • Recordendingworldstocks, see Supply and Demand table. • Speculatorsareslightlyshort. Theycanchangeposition fast (theyprefer the longside). • Exteriorfactors: - health of global economy?, - stronger US Dollar, - end of zerointerestpolicy? - Commoditypricesunderpressure, - war in Syria, Irak. Mainly negative…

  9. Cotton Prices for 2014/15 • Expectmorepressure on prices in general • Expect a narrowrange of pricefluctuation • Expect an increase in global cottonconsumption • Harvestingandginningaccelerates in the comingweeks, which will increaseavailability • Support program of governmentsforfarmersmaytake off temporarysupply of raw material • Hand tomouthbuyingformillswill continue • Watch plantingintentions in spring 2015 • BCI cotton will increasemarketshare…

  10. THANK YOU! http://www.reinhart.com

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