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Can Migration Work for All in Europe?

This conference explores the global picture of migration to OECD countries, with a focus on the challenges and opportunities for Europe. Topics covered include permanent and temporary migration, asylum applications, geopolitical crises, economic contributions, unemployment gaps, fiscal impact, social cohesion, integration, and skills utilization.

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Can Migration Work for All in Europe?

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  1. CAN MIGRATION WORK FOR ALL IN EUROPE? BRUEGEL / IMF CONFERENCE 9 JANUARY 2017 – BRUSSELS Stefano Scarpetta Director for Employment, Labour and SocialAffairsOECD

  2. The global picture: Sharp increase of permanent migration flows to OECD countries in 2015 – but refugees are only a part of the picture Evolution of permanent migration inflows to OECD countries Source International Migration Outlook, (OECD, 2016) Distribution of permanent flows to OECD countries by category in 2014 Source: International Migration Outlook (OECD, 2016)

  3. Permanent migration as a share of population ranges from 4 to 40 per thousand Permanent migration to OECD countries by category as a percentage of the population, 2014 Source International Migration Outlook, (OECD, 2016) • Permanent migration from third countries to the EU is comparable to that of the US

  4. Temporary (labour) migration is increasing fast as well Temporary labour migration flows, 2014 Source International Migration Outlook, (OECD, 2016)

  5. An unprecedented number of asylum applications in 2015 & persisting high levels in 2016 Evolution of the number of new asylum seekers, 1980-2016 2015 2016 Source: UNHCR, Eurostat, OECD calculations.

  6. Multiple unsettled crises Several conflicts/crises in parallel in countries – close to Europe – with little prospect for improvement in the near future => Persisting and looming geopolitical crises Strong concentration of asylum seekers in just a handful of entry points and destination countries which raises the issue of burden sharing; Large unmet needs for supporting refugees globally => A solidarity and coordination crisis Increasing tensions at EU external borders with active smuggling networks and migrants taking increasing risks; possible intrusions of terrorists => A security crisis Key building blocks of the European migration & asylum framework are challenged (e.g. Schengen, Dublin) => Risks of an institutional crisis Part of the public opinion in several European countries is hostile to further migration flows, including refugees =>A trust crisis Welcoming and integration systems are under strong pressure and concerns regarding the integration of refugees and their children are at the highest => A forthcoming integration crisis?

  7. The economiccontribution of migrants and refugees

  8. Migration made a key contribution to employment growth in the past 10 years • Immigrants represented 47/70% of the increase in the labour force in the US and EU, and 21/14%, respectively, of the increase in the highly-educated labour force. • New immigrants represented 15% of entries into strongly growing occupations in Europe and 22% in the United States … • … but they also account for about 25% of entries into strongly declining occupations. Demographic components of net occupational change by occupation growth quintile, 2000-2010 Source: « Renewing the skills of ageingworkforces: the role of migration», OECD International Migration Outlook (2012)http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/migr_outlook-2012-en

  9. Persisting large unemployment gaps in EuropeUnemployment rates by place of birth in the EU and the USA, 2008-2014 Quarterly unemployment rate evolution by place of birth, EU28 and United States, 2008-2015 6.3pp 4.9pp 4.4pp

  10. Persisting gaps in terms of employmentnotably for the tertiaryeducated in Europe Employment rates by place of birth and educational attainment, 2015 Percentage of population 25-64 Sources: United States: Current Population Surveys; other countries: Labour Force Surveys.

  11. The estimated overall impact of migration on the budget is around zero on average Estimated net fiscal impact of immigrants, average over 27 OECD countries • Employmentisthemaindriverofthefiscalimpact, andraisingimmigrantemploymentlevelstothoseofthe native-born cancreate large fiscalbenefitsof +0.5% of GDP ormore in countries like Belgium, France and Sweden. • But immigrantshave a lowernetfiscalcontribution – whichisdrivenbylowertaxesand not byhigherbenefittake-up. • Refugeestend to have lessfavourableimpactthanothergroups. Source: OECD International Migration Outlook (2013), The fiscal impact of immigration in OECD countries http://10.1787/migr_outlook-2013-en

  12. The change in direct fiscal impact, 2006/2008 to 2010/2012

  13. Key challenges for migration and social cohesion in Europe

  14. Rebuilding public confidence on migration issues Concerns about immigration Source: Transatlantic Trends: Mobility, Migration and Integration 2014

  15. Fostering the integration of migrants and theirchildren Employment rate by immigrant categories and duration of stay European OECD countries, 2014 Source : EU-OECD (2016), How are refugees faring on the labour market in Europe? A first evaluation based on the 2014 EU labour force survey ad hoc module, DG EMPL Working Paper 1/2016.

  16. Making better use of migrants’ skills Over-qualification rates for tertiary-educated immigrants compared with native-born; by origin of qualifications Source : A. Damas de Matos and T. Liebig, The qualifications of immigrants and their value in the labour market: A comparison of Europe and the United States in (OECD-EU 2014 ) Matching economic migration with labour market needs

  17. Improving the educational performance of children of immigrants Mean PISA reading scores of 15-year-old students by migration background, 2012 Source: OECD/European Union (2015), Indicators of Immigrant Integration 2015

  18. Thank you Stefano.scarpetta@oecd.org www.oecd.org/migration

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