1 / 41

ZAMBIA COUNTRY REPORT

ZAMBIA COUNTRY REPORT. Republic of Zambia Central Statistical Office. BASIC ECONOMIC STATISTICS WORKSHOP 23-26 JULY, 2007 PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA SHEBO NALISHEBO. Presentation Outline. Overview of Zambia Organisational structure of the CSO Economic Statistics Division National Accounts

williamsjerry
Download Presentation

ZAMBIA COUNTRY REPORT

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ZAMBIA COUNTRY REPORT Republic of Zambia Central Statistical Office BASIC ECONOMIC STATISTICS WORKSHOP 23-26 JULY, 2007 PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA SHEBO NALISHEBO

  2. Presentation Outline • Overview of Zambia • Organisational structure of the CSO • Economic Statistics Division • National Accounts • Industrial Production • External Trade and Balance of Payments • Living Conditions Monitoring • Prices and Consumption Studies • Public Finance • Sources & Estimation Methods • Dissemination of economic statistics • Short comings • Constraints

  3. Zambia - Geography

  4. Zambia - Demographics • Surrounded by 8 other countries • Total area: 752, 000 km2 • Populated by 12 million people • Copper remains the main export (80 %) • Per capita GDP: US$910 (2006 prelim.) • Economic growth rate: 5.9 % (2006 prelim.) • Inflation rate: 11.1 % (June 2007)

  5. Organizational Structure of the CSO • The Central Statistical Office is one of the TEN Departments under the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP) • Mandated under the Census and Statistics Act of the Laws of Zambia to produce official national statistics • These include: • Population and housing census (conducted every ten years) • Economic Census (to be carried out every five years) • Census of Agriculture • Other periodical national social and economic surveys • The CSO consists of the Head Office in Lusaka and provincial offices in each of the nine provinces of Zambia • Headed by a Director and is divided into four divisions each headed by a Deputy Director

  6. Organizational set up

  7. Economic Statistics Division

  8. National Accounts Branch • Responsible for the compilation of GDP on an annual basis • Co-ordinate the conducting of the Economic Census (on-going) • Carry out establishment-based income accounting surveys (National Income Inquiry)

  9. External Trade and BoP • Responsible for the processing and analysis, compilation of merchandize trade statistics with the rest of the world. This is done on a monthly basis with a one-month time lag. • Also supplies trade data to National accounts branch for purposes of production of expenditure GDP. • Balance of Payments statistics, however, are compiled at the Central Bank [‘Gentleman's’ Agreement]

  10. Industrial Production Branch • Responsible for the compilation of the quarterly Index of Industrial Production • Covers mining, manufacturing and electricity • Census of Industrial Production

  11. Prices Branch • Responsible for the compilation of the Consumer Price Index used to calculate inflation • Compiled on a monthly basis • Most timely-produced economic indicator: disseminated every last Thursday of the reference month • Provides indices for use in the deflation of GDP

  12. Public Finance Branch • Responsible for the compilation of Government and quasi-government Financial Statistics • Functional and economic classification of general government expenditure • Secondary collection and compilation of monetary statistics

  13. Living Conditions Monitoring Branch • Conducts the Living Conditions monitoring survey every other year • Used for computation of poverty estimates and poverty maps • Updating of CPI weights • Direct measurement of Household Final Consumption Expenditure

  14. Data Sources • National Accounts Branch • The primary sources of data for the compilation of GDP include: • Census of Agriculture • Census of industrial production covering mining, manufacturing and electricity • Census of Construction • National Income Inquiry covering the services sector • The Government accounts for community, social and personal services and government final consumption expenditure. • The 1993/1994 Household Budget Survey (HBS) for estimating household final consumption expenditure and the informal sector. • Imports and exports from the External Trade statistics and transactions with the rest of the world from Balance of Payments statistics.

  15. Data Sources • Secondary sources for GDP compilation: use of volume and price indicators • Annual crop forecast and post-harvest surveys • Quarterly index of industrial production • Consumer Price Index • Turnover from VAT register

  16. Data Sources • External Trade statistics • Main data source is customs data from the customs and exercise division. • Non-Customs sources (e.g. electricity and crude oil) • Monthly survey of major importers and exporters for data verification • Industrial Production statistics • Data obtained directly from a sample of establishments in 4 provinces (for the quarterly Index of Industrial Production)

  17. Data Sources • Prices statistics • About 15, 000 price quotations obtained on a monthly basis from nearly 2, 000 retail outlets throughout the country • Public Finance statistics • Data obtained from annual financial reports on income and expenditure of government, and quasi-government institutions

  18. Data Sources • Living Conditions Statistics • Data obtained directly from household surveys • Indicator monitoring survey conducted every two years • Longitudinal survey with HBS module to be conducted every five years

  19. Compilation methods • Economic statistics compilation based on internationally recognized methodologies • 1968 & 1993 SNA, BPM5, 2001 GFS Manual, etc. • Classifications used include: • ISIC Rev. 3, HS, SITC Rev. 3, COFOG, COICOP • Plans are underway to implement ISIC Rev. 4 for the upcoming Economic Census, COICOP for CPI

  20. Dissemination • The Monthly bulletin, released every last Thursday of the month through a press briefing • Monthly CPI press releases • Website: www.zamstats.gov.zm • Publications: External Trade, National Accounts • Soft copies by request

  21. Users • Users are invited to dissemination for a • User-producer workshops held before surveys are carried out to take their concerns on board • Mixed reactions • Some users are very supportive • Statistics may still be misunderstood, so some express dissatisfaction

  22. Shortcomings in NA compilation • Remote benchmark year (1994) • Outdated weights for deflators • No appropriate volume indicators for trade, business and personal services • There are a lot of small-scale operators in these industries • Coverage of informal sector was only at the benchmark year • No current price estimates for private consumption; derived residually

  23. Shortcomings • For External Trade: • Quantity data from customs sources poor • No Trade indices produced (e.g. unit value indices, unit price indices) due to poor quantity/price data. • Industrial Production • Census of Industrial Production not conducted regularly • Outdated weights • Public Finance • Poor coverage of local government sector

  24. Shortcomings • Prices: • Outdated weights (1994)

  25. Industry • The classification used for industries is the ISIC rev. 2 • Rev. 3 was implemented when the 2003 enterprise surveys were carried out [yet to be incorporated] • For the Economic Census, rev. 4 will be used

  26. Industry • GDP is reported using three major sectors: • Primary • Secondary, and • Tertiary • Under the primary sector: • Agriculture, forestry and fishing • Mining and quarrying

  27. Industry • Under the secondary sector • Manufacturing • Construction • Under the tertiary sector • Trade • Hotels, bars and restaurants • Transport and communications • Financial intermediation and insurance • Real estate and business services • Community, social and personal services

  28. Agriculture • Primary data source: Census of Agriculture • Secondary data source: Annual Crop forecasting survey & Post harvest survey • Agriculture season: Oct 1 – 30th Sep • Output recorded in the year of harvest • Broken down into crops, livestock and vegetables & fruits • Weights: Crops (60%); livestock (30%); fruits & vegetables (10%)

  29. Forestry & Fishing • Data on forestry obtained from the Department of Forestry • Number of logs in cubic metres • Alternate sources: Forestry establishments • Data on fish catches in metric tonnes obtained from 11 major fishing areas across the country

  30. Mining and quarrying • Industry broken down into metal mining and Other mining and quarrying • Metal mining consists of copper and cobalt production • Other mining includes coal mining and stone quarrying • Mineral export index used as deflator

  31. Manufacturing • Data obtained from Census of Industrial Production and the quarterly Index of Industrial Production • Scope: • Food, beverages and tobacco • Textiles, clothing & footwear • Wood and wood products • Paper & paper products • Chemicals, rubber & plastics • Non-metallic mineral products • Basic metal products • Fabricated metal products

  32. Electricity & Water • KWh of electricity generated by ZESCO-owned & Lunsemfwa hydro power stations • Main, mini-hydro and diesel stations • Hydro stations generate 99 % of total electricity • Water data from NWASCO (Water regulatory body)

  33. Construction • Primary data source: Census of Construction • Secondary indicators: Input indicators used to estimate output • Cement sales • Stone quarrying • Index of building materials used for deflation

  34. Trade, Business & Personal Services • No direct indicators used for these sectors • Trade industry assumes output from Agriculture, manufacturing and imports of consumption goods are disposed of through trade • Business services follows the same trend as Trade • Personal services follow the same trend as Business Services

  35. Hotels & Restaurants • Bed occupancy rates used; obtained from the Ministry of Tourism • Bars and restaurant data obtained indirectly from the Food, Beverages and Tobacco sub-sector under Manufacturing

  36. Transport & Communications • Transport broken down into: • Rail transport (data on number of passengers & tonnage of haulage obtained from 2 firms) • Road and pipeline transport (passenger & cargo hauled; registered public service vehicles) • Air transport (passengers embarking & disembarking at the 4 main airports) • Postal and telecommunications services

  37. Financial institutions & Insurance • Employment • FISIM • Number of policies issued

  38. Real estate & business services • Real estate: urban population growth rates • Business services: assumed to have the same trends as Retail Trade

  39. Community, social & personal services • Data mainly for government sector • Uses costs (Intermediate consumption, compensation of employees) to estimate output • Data obtained from Public Finance unit which gets it from Budget Office • Personal services assumed to follow the movements of Business Services

  40. Constraints • Budgetary constraints in other government agencies affects production of statistics (e.g. tourism, fisheries, local authorities) • Poor quality customs quantity data • Outdated and Weak Statistics Act

  41. End of Presentation Thank You For Your Attention

More Related