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A Regional Chemical Reanalysis Prototype

A Regional Chemical Reanalysis Prototype. Pius Lee 1 , Greg Carmichael 2 , Tianfeng Chai 3 , Rick Saylor 4 , Li Pan 3 ,Hyuncheol Kim 3 , Daniel Tong 3 , Ariel Stein 1 , and Yongtao Hu 5 1 Air Resources Lab., NOAA, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD

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A Regional Chemical Reanalysis Prototype

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  1. A Regional Chemical Reanalysis Prototype Pius Lee1, Greg Carmichael2, Tianfeng Chai3, Rick Saylor4, Li Pan3,Hyuncheol Kim3, Daniel Tong3, Ariel Stein1, and Yongtao Hu5 1Air Resources Lab., NOAA, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD 2Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 3Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellite, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 4Air Resources Lab., NOAA, Oak Ridge, TN 5School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  2. OUTLINE • Chemical Reanalysis objective: Integration of obs and model • Regional prototype: met-model, Data assimilation, and CTM • Real Time intermittent sources accounted: HMS wild fires • Dynamic LBC from RAQM: OMI O3 and MODIS AOD, wild fires • Observations ingested: MODIS AOD, AIRNow PM2.5 • DISCOVER-AQ 2011 case study: Show stepwise improvement • Example end-user: SIP modeling initialized by reanalysis 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  3. Global Assimilation Satellite Products Upcoming AQAST Project: Air Quality Reanalysis Greg Carmichael + others (Translating Research to Services) + AQ Assessments +State Implementation Plan Modeling + Rapid deployment of on-demand + Rapid-respond forecasting; e.g., Methane leakage from fracking + Demonstration of the impact of observations on AQ distributions Constrained http://acmg.seas.harvard.edu/aqast/projects.html 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  4. Challenge: Achieving A Closer Integration Of Observations And Models Poster: Aijun Xiu: “GOES DA in WRF model Courtesy: Carmichael, Keynote speech IWAQFR 2011, Nov 29 – Dec 1 2011, D.C. 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  5. Goal: A user friendly downloadable archive • This study aims to build a prototype • User friendliness and reliability are keys to success: e.g.. 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  6. Building a chemical reanalysis prototype & its testing: Incremental ingestion of observations CMAQ PM MODIS AIRNow *Poster: Tao Zeng: “Calibration using burn permits” 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  7. MODIS AOD & AIRNow PM2.5 ingestion 12Z 15Z 18Z 21Z 00Z 06Z 12Z 15Z 17Z 20Z 17Z 18Z Forecast by CTM constrained by IC adjustment NCEP NDAS full cycling Forward model with obs ingested by OI feeds next cycle OI: MODIS total AOD OI: AIRNow PM2.5 This is set up not ideal: Working towards ingesting AIRNow 6 hourly, and 4 cycles per day. 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  8. O3 verification statistics over CONUS with NAM-CMAQ for August 1-5 2006. (Tang et al. 2008 Environ. Fluid Mech.) 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  9. Emission should include Exo- and intra-domain wild fires Agricultural burning prevails in the months of March and April in Mexico 5x HMS wildfire detections during Apr. 2010 Talk: Stephen Reid: “HRes MODIS AOD for large fires 11:00 am tomorrow 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  10. MODIS AOD Assimilation MODIS obs CMAQ base Difference map: Analysis minus Base 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  11. Methodology of OI: Take account for background input; Obs; and physical processes from model Observation Input OI Background Input Analysis output 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  12. HMS detected large swath of smoke in EUS on July 2 2011 MODIS AOD CMAQ Base Analysis - Base CMAQ Analysis 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  13. Base case: CMAQ4.7.1 without any data assimilation OI forecast: CMAQ results after assimilating previous day AOD observations OI Analysis: CMAQ results after assimilating same day AOD, for next day forecast Total AOD assimilation tests 17Z 20Z 18Z Fine mode AOD assimilation Total AOD assimilation OI: MODIS total AOD 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  14. 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  15. CO (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: AOD_DA case vs. Obs 200 P3 Three and a half loops: Beltsville Padonia Fairhill Aldino Edgewood Essex Chesapeake Bay 100 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  16. O3 (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: AOD_DA case vs. Obs HCHO (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: AOD_DA case vs. Obs 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  17. O3 (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: various cases vs. Obs NOy (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: various cases vs. Obs 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  18. GA Tech as end user of product of re-analysis fields • WRF 3.2.1 for meteorological fields • NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) 32-km resolution inputs • NCEP ADP surface and soundings observational data • MODIS landuse data for most recent land cover status • 3-D and surface nudging, Noah land-surface model • SMOKE 2.6 for CMAQ ready gridded emissions • NEI inventory projected to 2011 using EGAS growth and existing control strategies • BEIS3 biogenic emissions based on BELD3 database • GOES biomass burning emissions: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/EPA/GBBEP/ • CMAQ 5.0 • •SAPRC99 mechanism, AERO5, ISORROPIA thermodynamic, Mass conservation • Initialization of chemical fields for 4 km domain • •From 12 km reanalysis field provided by ARL/NOAA • LBC for chemical fields for 4 km domain • •From 12 km reanalysis field provided by ARL/NOAA DISCOVER-AQ GA_Tech 4 km IC/BC of Base and AOD_DA cases 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  19. 24 h PM2.5 on 07/02/2011 : (a) Base, (b) AOD_DA for DISCOVER-AQ GA Tech 4 km (a) (b) 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  20. 24 h PM2.5 on 07/07/2011 : (a) Base, (b) AOD_DA for DISCOVER-AQ GA Tech 4 km (a) (b) 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  21. CONUS 12 km NE 12 km DISCOVER-AQ GA_Tech 4 km 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  22. Push towards higher resolution at NCEP Poster: Pat Dolwick: “Comparison of CMAQ performance as a funciton of grid resolution for 2007” Talk: Jason Ching: “km scale mesoscale Met modeling 1:20pm tomorrow for AQ simulations” Talk: Mark Estes: “Regional background O3 for Houston, 11:20am tomorrow Texas.” 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  23. Prototype: • Started on ARL and AQAST initiated Chemical Reanalysis • Expandable and updatable to capture chemical state of the • Troposphere hourly in 12 km resolution • Prototype modeling system comprised of: • CTM: CMAQ4.7.1 and • D.A. algorithm: Optimal Interpolation (OI) • Observation assimilated: • HMS wild fire • MODIS total AOD twice daily • AIRNow PM2.5 6 hourly. • Next Step: • Assimilate GOES clouds to constrain photolytic rates • Transition OI to GSI protocol for operational implementation 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  24. EXTRA SLIDES Poster: Hyuncheol Kim: “GOME2, OMI NO2 Talk 10:20 am tomorrow Contact: Pius.Lee@noaa.gov http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ 24 12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

  25. Thank you for voicing support to NAQFC • “I am writing to comment on the • Proposed Termination of NWS Ozone Air Quality Predictions … • The NAQFC is the only numerical forecast model that is available every day, • is fully documented, accessible for evaluation, and shows good forecast skill. • It should be retained”. (November 1 2012, Bill Ryan, PSU) • On “The proposal to shelve the $5.4 million National Air Quality Forecasting • Capability in March has drawn protests from public health officials…” • (January 26 2013, Dan Vergano, USA Today) November 2012, MDE as Oppose_1

  26. Will AOD assimilation improve PM2.5?Which one is better, fine mode or total? http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/spb/aq

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