Preparing For Decision Support

1. Preparing For Decision Support Where We Are Today – And How We Can Prepare For Tomorrow John Brost NWS Amarillo

2. Where Are We Going? NOAA’s National Weather Service Strategic Plan 2010 Page 6 (Under “The Plan” Section): “Operationally impact‐based decision support means our forecasters will require an expanded understanding of the weather‐related decisions users must make. Forecasters will focus less on improving increasingly accurate model output and more on maintaining continuous situational awareness, interpreting information and providing decision support for high‐impact events.”

3. Where Are We Now? • Created a simple and short survey to get feedback • 5 questions with 4 “follow up” questions • Focused on skills relating to decision support services • Uses a “comfort scale” from 1 to 10 • Online and Anonymous • ~190 responses from SR • (Survey not yet approved for the entire NWS )

6. Additional Comments/Suggestions • Prefer video briefings (SKYPE, Google) • Difficulty in knowing what to brief if they do not know what decisions are being made • Toastmasters (public speaking group) and ROC a huge help

9. Additional Comments/Suggestions • Controlling background noise • “I don’t know who I’m talking to” – causes uncertainty/nervousness • Briefings mainly conducted by MIC/WCM due to shift work time constraints • Confident in participating – not as confident leading the call

12. Additional Comments/Suggestions • Not so much GoToMeeting but creating the Power Point presentation/graphics that are challenging – hard to get graphics from AWIPS to P.C. • Don’t forget about HMT’s!!! • GoToMeeting is rarely used for briefings OR we use GoTo once a week • Computer lock ups/poor internet connectivity are a concern • Had to learn to use it ourselves

15. Additional Comments/Suggestions • Training and Time (frequently mentioned) • Using NWS Laptops is a pain due to security software issues • This is a rare (if any) request OR we get this request often • Staffing concerns if 1 or 2 people leave operations to provide support • IMET or Management provide this service

16. Time Training Mindset Relationships None

17. Additional Comments/Suggestions • Resources and staffing (frequently mentioned) • Advanced Planning a key • Communication/outreach – partners are unaware that we can do this – we need to listen more • Asked to make decisions rather than provide information – “I resent being put in that decision” • “The scientific expert is increasingly left behind in the new NWS DS era” • “Accuweather will answer the phone after 4 PM” • Inexperienced forecasters do not have opportunities to provide these infrequent services

18. The Hereford Experiment Dean Turney (EM of Deaf Smith Co.) – "Our biggest fear is a bioterrorist attack on the cattle industry here or a major chemical release. We have approximately 1 million head of cattle within a 30 mile radius of Hereford. It would scare you to know what chemicals come through the area on trains and trucks everyday."

19. Cattle Feedyards Hereford Railroad Tracks

20. Fun Cow Facts • Average sale price of cow is ~ $0.80 to $1.00 per pound • Average weight of feeder cow ~ 500 to 1,200 lbs (call it an even 1,000) • Average sale price of a cow ~ $1,000.00 • 1 Million Cows at $1,000.00 = $1 Billion(A few hundred thousand cows in Hereford feed yards every day) Based on the distribution of the expenditure on food, it is estimated that for every dollar lost in disasters by a farmer, the allied industries (labor, packaging, transportation, and advertising) lose an additional four dollars, on average. FEMA/USDA

21. Let’s Play “What If” • Major train derailment in Hereford dumps hazardous chemicals into the air • What is the first priority for responders? • PEOPLE! • That means thousands if not hundreds of thousands of cows will either die from chemical poisoning – or become sick enough that they can not be sold

22. Are We Prepared • What if this happens at 3 am? Do we call in the guy/gal who is good at on-site support? • We waste precious time if we are not ALL adequately prepared/trained – including understanding the science! • Is this scenario even plausible and worth worrying about?

24. Weather Causes Ag Impacts Too! • Hurricane Floyd that swept across parts of North Carolina in 1999. • As a result of floods approximately 28,000 hogs, 2.1 million chickens, and 800,000 turkeys drowned. (FEMA/USDA) • Young animals with minimal fur are extremely vulnerable to freezing conditions.

25. Looks Plausible To Me • Maybe it won’t happen in Hereford, but it will happen somewhere • Maybe it’s not a Chem release. Could be fires, weather disaster, terrorist … etc. • How Do We Prepare?

26. DS = Decision Support Wheel O’ Preparedness – Adapted From Mark Fox and NASA Adopt County / Outreach DS Binder Incident Action Plan Table Tops Decision Support Symposium Partner Feedback/Table Tops Technology (How to use equipment) ICS Courses Service Assessments Societal Impacts (WAS*IS) Post Mortems Comet/LMS Courses Post Storm Eval Team DS WES Case Local Support From WFO EM On-Site Drills/Simulations Watches/Warnings/Advisories/Forecasts Multi-Media Briefs Local Office Sims Conference Calls/GoToMeeting Support for Prescribed Burns On-Site Support

27. What About The Challenges • 67% said Time is a challenge • Largest response must be addressed • How? ER Mets? Reducing Products? 1 Forecaster per shift? • 65% said Training is a challenge • 57% said Mindset is a challenge • 39% said Relationships are a challenge

28. Let’s Focus on Mindset? • How do we convince people to provide Decision Support Services? • I have 3 ideas: • Directives (Written - or Verbal from MIC) • Changes behavior – not minds (can have reverse effect) • Education • Effective but takes time to do research/develop training (WAS*IS?) • University Students – get them while they are young! • Relationships • Very Effective – but relationship building can be difficult

29. Adopt County / Outreach DS Binder Incident Action Plan Table Tops Decision Support Symposium Customer Feedback/Table Tops Technology (How to use equipment) ICS Courses Service Assessments Societal Impacts (WAS*IS) Post Mortems Comet/LMS Courses Post Storm Eval Team DS WES Case Local Support From WFO EM On-Site Drills/Simulations Watches/Warnings/Advisories/Forecasts Local Office Sims Conference Calls/GoToMeeting Support for Prescribed Burns On-Site Support

30. How Does This Help? • Because “Why” is important to scientists • “Why are we doing this?” • Relationships lead to empathy • “I want to help you because I know what you do is important”

31. The Purpose • Knowing Why • Relationship • Accomplishing the Mission

32. Thank You! John.Brost@noaa.gov