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EMME Users’ Group Meeting Recent t oll patronage forecasting using EMME 27 May 2011

EMME Users’ Group Meeting Recent t oll patronage forecasting using EMME 27 May 2011. Toll choice model is typically an “add-on ” Traffic Assignment : Vehicle demand from other models More detailed route assessment One or more toll facilities Can be project specific

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EMME Users’ Group Meeting Recent t oll patronage forecasting using EMME 27 May 2011

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  1. EMME Users’ Group MeetingRecent toll patronage forecasting using EMME27 May 2011

  2. Toll choice model is typically an “add-on” Traffic Assignment : Vehicle demand from other models More detailed route assessment One or more toll facilities Can be project specific Projections for average weekday Demands expanded externally for annual revenue and patronage Two general approaches: Logit demand segmentation Distributed VOT MC equilibrium assignment General Modelling Methodology

  3. Route combinations B T4 T3 Tolled Segment Access Route (untolled) Egress Route (untolled) T3 Full Toll Route Possible Alternative Routes T2 T1 A

  4. Logit-based demand segmentation model

  5. Benefits of logit based demand segmentation assignment: Most common method in Australian context Strong financial market acceptability Can address toll capping or user budget limits Disbenefitsof the logit based demand segmentation assignment: Skimming and assignment to toll routes can be complex and error prone Limitations on toll route and vehicle class markets combinations Often used project specific application Difficult to adopt for general city wide use or use for many toll facilities Logitbased demand segmentation

  6. Distributed VOT MC Assignment

  7. Benefits of Distributed VOT multi‐class equilibrium assignment approach: All possible toll route combinations are assessed at similar level of detail. Use of transport software built‐in equilibrium assignment algorithms Potential for reduced model run times and more stable outputs Can address many toll roads together Model could be applicable for general planning use Less potential for user specification error Disbenefits of Distributed VOT multi‐class equilibrium assignment approach: Less commonly used and possibly not as well accepted Cannot handle toll capping easily Number of classes may limit VOT segmentation Requires more innovative SP/RP survey analysis Distributed VoT multi-class assignment

  8. Conclusions • Toll roads are an increasing feature of large Australian city road networks • Methods for patronage forecasting (i.e. for bid teams) have been complex and unwieldy • Distributed VOT MC assignment techniques may be adaptable for general planning agency use

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