2011

1. 2011 2011 Day 2 Day 2 By: Aakriti, Gloria, Cynthia, Theresa

2. Daily Plan GDP Unemployment Full employment Activities Homework

3. Hall of GDP

4. The GDP Deflator • The GDP deflator • measures price changes for all goods and services produced in the economy and weights them in terms of the economy’s total output (GDP). • includes quantities that change each year • compares prices in the current year with those in a base year

5. The values for the GDP deflator are not as quickly available as values for CPI. Therefore it receives less publicity than then CPI. The results of the two indicators (GDP deflator and CPI) give similar but not identical estimates of inflation.

6. Nominal Versus Real GDP • Nominal GDP • is expressed in current dollars • Real GDP • is expressed in base-year dollars • Gives an indication of the purchasing power of an entire economy

7. Nominal GDP Real GDP (real output in terms of dollars from some reference year) = Current value of the GDP Deflator (expressed in hundredths) Current value of the GDP Deflator (expressed in hundredths)

8. Inflation’s Effects (a) • If household ↑ but Inflation ↑ at a higher rate, then household’s purchasing power ↓. • If household ↑ and inflation rate ↑ proportionally, then household maintains purchasing power. • Cost – of – living adjustment clauses (COLA)  Provisions for income adjustment to accommodate changes in price level, which are included in wage contracts.

9. Inflation redistributes purchasing power in arbitrary ways because of various types of indexation full indexation (nominal income rises at the inflation rate) partial indexation (nominal income rises at less than the inflation rate) fixed incomes (nominal income stays constant)

10. Inflation’s Effects (b) • Nominal Interest rate: The interest rate expressed in money terms. - in 2010, A borrows $2000 at 7% per annum, 7% is the nominal interest rate, he has to pay $140 ($2000 * 7%) interest to the bank. • Real interest rate: The nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation. - in 2010, if the inflation rate is 3%, then the real interest rate is: 7% - 3% = 4%, so the bank only receives $80 ($2000 * 4%) in real interest.

11. Inflation premium: a percentage built into a nominal interest rate to anticipate the rate of inflation for the loan period. Lenders, therefore, determine what real interest rate they desire and add an inflation premium to determine the nominal interest rate. • Nominal interest rate = desired real interest rate + inflation premium.

12. Nominal interest rate desired real interest rate inflation premium = + 5% 2% 7% If the inflation rate turns out to be higher, suppose, the inflation rate is actually 4%, then the real interest rate is 3% (7% - 4%), which is lower than the desired real interest rate, which is 5%. Therefore, the lenders are worse off, while borrowers are better off.

13. Inflation can also redistribute purchasing power between borrowers and lenders • borrowers win if actual inflation > anticipated inflation • lenders win if actual inflation < anticipated inflation • borrowers and lenders are unaffected if actual inflation = anticipated inflation

14. Practice Questions (1) • The GDP deflator is the following ratio multiplied by 100: a. reference-year quantities valued at reference-year prices, divided by reference-year quantities valued at current-year prices. b. reference-year quantities valued at current-year prices, divided by reference-year quantities valued at base-year prices. c. current-year quantities valued at reference-year prices, divided by current-year quantities valued at current-year prices. d. current-year quantities valued at current-year prices, divided by current-year quantities valued at reference-year prices.

15. Practice Questions (2) • Which of the following groups is most hurt by unexpected inflation? a. those with fixed incomes b. those with partially indexed incomes c. those with fully indexed incomes d. Borrowers

16. UNEMPLOYMENT THEATRE

17. THE LABOUR FORCE SURVEY • The labour force survey, conducted by Statistics tracks a randomly selected sample of 53 000 Canadian households • The survey measures • the labour force population, which includes Canadians 15 years of age or over, with specific exclusions • the labour force, which includes all those who either have a job or are actively seeking employment • the participation rate, which is the percentage of the labour force population that makes up the labour force • the official unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployed people in the labour force as a percentage of the entire labour force

18. PARTICIPATION RATES NOTE: participation rate for women has increase steadily until early 1990s and has remained stable since Decline in participation rate of men (due to early retirement) increase in participation of young people since 1975 (students work part time)

19. CALCULATIONS Official Unemployment Rate Unemployment rate = Unemployment in labour force X 100 Labour force = 1 277 600 x 100 16 689 400 = 7.7% Participation rate Participation rate = Labour force X 100 = 16 689 400 X 100 = 66.9% Labour force population 24 945 100

20. DRAWBACKS OF THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (A) • The unemployment rate may overstate or understate the true level of unemployment because of the way its calculated • This is caused by three factors • Underemployment • it does not include underemployed workers who are underutilized either as part-time workers or by working at jobs not appropriate to their skills or education • The official rate sometimes understates un employment by ignoring underemployed workers

21. DRAWBACKS OF THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (B) • Discouraged workers • It excludes discouraged workers who are unemployed and have given up looking for work • Since they are not actively seeking employment they should not be included in the labor force • This sometimes caused the official rate to understate unemployment

22. DRAWBACKS OF THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (C) • Dishonesty • People may give dishonest responses during the labour market survey (may say they are actively looking for work when they are not) • This makes it possible for the official rate to overstate unemployment

23. TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT (A) • There are four types of unemployment 1. Frictional unemployment = unemployment due to being temporarily between jobs or looking for a first job • Ex. Recent collage graduate looking for job, and a person who has voluntarily left one job to look for another

24. TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT (B) 2. Structural unemployment= unemployment due to a mismatch between people and jobs. • It is caused by gradual changes in the economy such as adjustments in what items are produced, how they are produced, and where they are produced • Workers gaining new skills, moving to obtain work elsewhere and the development of new industries in a region can all take time, thus structural unemployment can persist for long periods • Ex. Worker loses job in manufacturing because of automation

25. TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT (C) 3. Cyclical unemployment= unemployment due to fluctuations in output and spending • Ex. Auto worker may work overtime in periods of strong consumer demand for cars and be laid off in leaner times 4. Seasonal unemployment= unemployment due to the seasonal nature of some occupations and industries • Seasonal unemployment is significant in Canada because of its climate and the importance of its primary resource industries • Ex. Agriculture, construction and tourism industries

26. FULL EMPLOMENT CABIN

27. Full Employment • Full employment • is the highest reasonable expectation of employment for the economy as a whole • is defined in terms of the natural unemployment rate, which includes frictional and at least some structural unemployment • in Canada is presently associated with an unemployment rate between 6% and 7%

28. The Rise in the Natural Unemployment Rate • In recent decades Canada’s estimated natural unemployment rate rose because of several main trends • structural change, with shrinking manufacturing and expanding services • past reforms to unemployment insurance (some of which have been reversed) • higher minimum wages in many provinces

29. STRUCTURAL CHANGE • structural adjustments in an economy occur when there are changes regarding what products are produced and how they are produced. • The change in Canadian economy and the removal of international trade barriers can displace workers and increase long term structural unemployment

30. UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE • Unemployment insurance can be a factor in increasing the unemployment rate. • This can be a factor that increases the unemployment rate between 0.5 to 2 percent • The government has change this to employee insurance and have made it more difficult to claim benefits

31. MINIMUM WAGES Wage increases and employment have an inverse relationship because if a 10 percent increase in minimum wage it reduces employment by 1 percent in males and 2.7 percent in females

32. The Costs of Unemployment • High unemployment hurts individuals and the Canadian economy as a whole • To measure the cost of unemployment for the entire economy is to calculating the potential output. • Potential output is the real output or gross domestic product associated with full employment. • To measure the real output follows Okun’s law-----for every percentage point the unemployment rate exceeds the natural unemployment rate, the gap between the potential output and the actual output is 2.5 percent。

33. Practice Questions (5&6) • True or False • Full employment is the same as zero unemployment • Unemployment insurance can be a factor in increasing the unemployment rate • Full employment is defined in terms of the natural unemployment rate, which includes frictional unemployment. • What are the factors that effect natural and actual unemployment trends?

34. Boom Bust & Echo (a) David Foot suggests that our ages can give us insights into our economic futures the baby boom generation (born between 1947 and 1966) which includes Generation X (born between 1960 and 1966) the baby bust generation (born between 1967 and 1979) the baby boom echo (born between 1980 and 1995) which includes Generation X-II (born between 1990 and 1995)

35. Boom Bust & Echo (b) According to Foot economic conditions are easiest for the baby bust generation and the first parts of the baby boom generation and baby boom echo economic conditions are hardest for Generation X and Generation X-II

36. Female Male 90 80 70 60 50 Age 40 30 20 10 0 300 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Population in thousands Canada’s Population Pyramids P244