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Being Policed? Or Just Pleasing Themselves?. Electoral Rewards and Punishment for Legislative Behaviour in an Era of Localized Campaigning Effects: The Case of the UK in 2005. Why?. Dealigned Increasingly localised Increasing information ‘Safe’ to protest voting So Now Who Do We Vote For?
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Being Policed? Or Just Pleasing Themselves? Electoral Rewards and Punishment for Legislative Behaviour in an Era of Localized Campaigning Effects: The Case of the UK in 2005
Why? • Dealigned • Increasingly localised • Increasing information • ‘Safe’ to protest voting • So Now Who Do We Vote For? • Plenty of issues • Plenty of variance
Backbench rebellions, 2001-2005 • highest rate of rebellion since 1945 • more in first session, Labour • most in final session since 1945 • the largest Labour health rebellion • the largest Labour education rebellion • the (joint) largest rebellion at a Bill’s Second Reading since 1945 • the two largest rebellions by MPs of all parties for over 150 years.
Overall correlation between rebellion and electoral performance -0.06
Why things are complicated: Higher Education Bill • Second Reading – on the principle of the Bill as then constituted. • Report Stage - to remove clauses relating to top up fees. • Third Reading – the vote on the Bill as finally constituted.