Human Spaceflight to Mars as a Self-Organized Critical System

1. Human Spaceflight to Mars as a Self-Organized Critical System Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2017 International Mars Society Convention

2. Preview US Economy attracted toward Critical States 2x per century, inc nonlinear “Avalanches” (physicist Per Bak’s metaphor) • Early geopolitical avalanches in the form of a Sputnik Moment and/or Cuban Missile Crisis focus the public • Economic avalanches include a major economic boom that’s preceded by a financial panic, a clear precursor of the new Maslow Window • The Boom provides capital for Great Explorations/MEPs, and creates an “ebullient” public as many ascend the Maslow hierarchy and their worldviews expand • Great Human Explorations (e.g., Apollo) and MEP’s (e.g., Panama Canal) rapidly follow

3. JFK’s 50th Moon Anniversary May 25, 1961: “…this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth. Freeman Dyson, ISDC 2010: ‘Why have we been stuck in LEO for 40 Years?’

4. The Way We Were…

5. The Way We Will Be

6. The Big Picture • Apollo & last 200 years of Great Explorations explainedby twice per century“critical states” known as Maslow Windows • Growth, technology, geopolitics, the triggers • Early self-sufficiency in deep space avoids another 40+ yr hiatus Apollo’s timing not an accident; New Apollo-level, international Space Age expected this ~decade. • ~

7. The Maslow Window Model • Rhythmic, twice-per-century JFK-style booms occur -- “Super-Cycle” • Widespread affluence -- the “Great Prosperity” • Many ascend Maslow’s Hierarchy -- “Ebullience” • Some do not ascend MH – “Animal Spirits” Expanded worldviews support Apollo-style initiatives

8. Complex Systems are Behind Apollo-level Space Initiatives

9. Why No Humans to the Moon for 40+ Years? • Lack of interest • JFK’s goal was reached • International competition declined • No plans for follow-on exploration Or maybe something else…?

10. Complex Systems are Attracted Toward Critical States • Many interacting components; e.g., businesses, individuals, countries • Interactions are “non-linear”; not just the sum of their parts; reminiscent of the “Butterfly Effect” • Organize themselves toward “critical states” where large changes are possible; i.e., as in the “Bak Sandpile” • Results in pulsed activity separated by decades of relative quiet

11. Bak’s Metaphor for Critical States is Falling Grains of Sand & Avalanches

12. The United States Economy (USE) is a complex system About 2x per century, the USE self-organizes into a Critical State known as a Maslow Window

13. Clues that Suggest Pulsed Activity Over the last 200+ years… Twice-Per-Century Clusters of these exist: • Great Explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark) • Macro-Engineering Projects (e.g., Panama Canal) • Major Wars (e.g., World War I)

14. Disney and Von BraunThe 1960sweretransformative…

15. 1960s “Ebullience”

16. The 1960s As a “Critical State” • Sputnik (1957) • Cuban Missile Crisis • Peace Corps • Apollo Moon Program • Civil Rights Movement • Vietnam Yale Sociologist Gary Brewer: During Apollo, NASA was “a perfect place.”

17. Compelling Clusters Energy Booms1801 1857 1913 1969 Great Lewis & Clark/ Livingstone/ Peary/ Apollo/ Explorations N. America Africa Polar Moon Macro-Engineering (Erie Canal) Suez Canal Panama Canal Apollo Projects (MEP) Major Wars Napoleanic Wars/ Civil War W.W. I Vietnam/ War of 1812 Cold War

18. The 56 Yr Energy/Boom Cycle From Hugh B. Stewart (1989), Recollecting the Future, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, IL, pp. 64. Replotted in Theodore Modis (1992) Predictions, Simon & Schuster, New York, pp. 148.

19. Standard Chartered Bank’s “Super-Cycles”

20. It’s 1987. Why the smiles?

21. Forecasts and Issues

22. Chronology of a Maslow Window Near-Critical Potential Signatures Include: • Geopolitical Tensions/Conflicts; e.g., Sputnik, Cuban Missile Crisis, North Korea/Iran • Financial Panics/Great Recessions; e.g., Panics of 1893, 2008… • Major Economic Booms; e.g., 1899, JFK Boom, 2017 (?)… • Great Human Explorations, MEPs; e.g., Lewis & Clark, Panama Canal, Apollo

23. Greatest Global Boom – 7/23/07

24. A Maslow Case Study: 1890-1913

25. The Remaining Step: A JFK-style Boom • The Energy Boom • Creativity –Universities, Business • Huge Amounts of Capital • Growing Optimism – Markets, Surveys • New Technologies/Manufacturing Depth “America’s success isn’t preordained. But the technological innovations circa 2012 are profound. They will engender sweeping changes to our society and our economy. All the forces are in place. It’s just a matter of when.”

26. The Trajectory of Great Explorations Lewis and Clark/NW U.S. Dr. Livingstone/Eq Africa Peary/Amundsen/Poles Apollo/Moon What’s Next? Or ?

27. Mr. Bridenstine and NASA?

28. Our new “Sputnik Moment”? Defn: A public space-related event that couples major surprise with fear, relating to U.S. national security. • Lunar polar ices as a “strategic resource” • Today’s “Cuban missile crisis in slow motion.” (i.e., NoKo) • China…others? • Perhaps none?

29. Summary • 2015-2025: analog of the transformative1960s/1900s “critical states” • The key: earlyself-sufficiency in deep space – to avoid another 40-year hiatus • Maslow patterns are robust through 2 world wars, the Great Depression, several financial panics • After 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – 2081. Can Humanity Afford to Wait?