Irish Party Support Poll - Fine Gael Leads, Fianna Fail and Labour Decline

1. Vote IntentionOpinion Poll Jan 2011

2. MUST BE INCLUDEDMethodology and Weighting RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 4th – 6th January 2011. A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered. Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two. Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote. In all respects the poll was completed to the guidelines set down by both ESOMAR and AIMRO.

3. Key Findings - I • Fine Gael extend their lead as the party with most support in Ireland, securing 35% of the first preference vote and as such continuing the upward trend of support seen in polls over the end of 2010. • Support for the party is strongest among men (40%), younger 18-34 year old voters (39%), more upmarket voters (37%) and those in Munster (38%) • Labour’s share is down somewhat on that seen in 2010, with the party securing 21% of the first preference vote overall. This appears to be due to a fall in support in Dublin, where the party now only matches Fine Gael levels of support having dominated in the past, support is also lower for the party in Connaught and Ulster. • Fianna Fail support also falls again to very low levels, with just 14% suggesting they would give the party their first preference vote, almost matching the lowest level of support for the party seen in 2010. Only 10% of those in Dublin now suggest they will vote for the party in this poll. • Sinn Fein consolidate support at the higher level they have enjoyed since the Donegal by-election, and match Fianna Fail by also securing 14% of the first preference vote. Their vote is much stronger in Connaught and Ulster at 20%, and also among less well off manual workers at 18%. • The Green Party see something of a rise in fortunes, with support for the party at 4%, the highest seen since the party tried to arrange a national consensus among all the parties before the bailout. • Support for Independents is also high at 12%, a level they have not seen since 2009.

4. Key Findings - II • When the Spiral of Silence is taken into account Fianna Fail support does rise back up slightly to 16%, with Fine Gael and Sinn Fein dropping 1% each. • However, when loyalty of claimed first preference vote intention is looked at, just 9% say they will definitely give their first preference to Fianna Fail; while 56% state they definitely wont give their first preference to the party. • Fine Gael appears to be in the strongest position, with 18% saying they will definitely, give their first preference to the party, and a further 22% saying they are likely to. With a strong campaign this suggests that the party could maximise its share to a possible 40% of the first preference vote. • Labour are not that far behind this, with 14% definite, but again a large pool of 22% suggesting they may well give their first preference to Labour. This suggest there is a battle ahead between the Fine Gael and Labour in order to secure those who are not 100% loyal at this stage. • Eamonn Gilmore is still seen as the best Taoiseach in today's poll, with 37% supporting him, but this is lower than seen towards the end of 2010. Enda Kenny improves his level of support somewhat, with 27% saying they believe he would make the best Taoiseach. • Almost the same number believe Gerry Adams would make the best Taoiseach as Brian Cowen, with 10% supporting Cowen and 9% Adams.

5. Key Findings - III • Despite his parties fortunes, Brian Lenihan is still seen as the best choice for Minister of Finance with 19% support. He is followed by Richard Bruton at 18%, who comes in ahead of the current spokesperson for finance at Fine Gael, Michael Noonan with 16%. Joan Burton, the spokesperson on finance in the Labour party, receives just 9% support. • Most voters (62%) believe that the current government should have stood down ages ago, with even more than half of those who voted for Fianna Fail at the last election (54%) agreeing that this is the case. • Connected to this is the fact that half of all voters (51%) suggest they will never vote for Fianna Fail again, including almost 2 in 5 (39%) of those who voted for the party in 2007. • The majority of voters also appear to be fed up by the political system in Ireland today altogether. Two thirds (66%) agree that they have less trust in politicians than ever before, with the mid aged 35-44 years olds most likely to be disillusioned (73%). • While at the same time 3 in 5 (61%) agree that a new political party is needed to make real changes to politics in Ireland today – this is particularly the case among women and those in younger age groups. • Voters also appear to be keen on seeing a younger leader of a political party, with 57% agreement – strangely enough agreement is higher among older age groups. • Finally just under half (45%) agree that we should have defaulted on loans rather than bring in the IMF and EU, but a large proportion do not know (27%).

6. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Green Party Independents/ Other

7. Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) The Spiral of Silence Assumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” or “shy” to admit that they will vote for them. To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election. We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time. Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other

8. 1st Preference vote x Demographics(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

9. Attitude towards giving 1st Preference Vote to this Party at Next General Election (Base: All Adults Likely to Vote – 900) FG % Labour % FF % % % Definitely Will Likely To Might Do Probably Won’t Definitely Won’t D/K Refused

10. Best Taoiseach after Next General Election Q. Irrespective of which party you support, which of the main party leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland after the next general election? (Base: All Adults 18+ Years – 1,000) % Eamonn Gilmore Enda Kenny Brian Cowen Gerry Adams None of these Don’t know

11. Best Minister for Finance after Next General Election Q. Irrespective of which party you support, which of the following do you believe would make the best Minister for Finance after the next general election? (Base: All Adults 18+ Years – 1,000) % Brian Lenihan Richard Bruton Michael Noonan Joan Burton Pat Rabbitte Eamonn Gilmore Leo Varadkar None of these Don’t know

12. Attitudes to Potential Coalitions after the General Election (Base: All Adults 18+ Years – 1,000) Fine Gael & Labour Labour, Sinn Fein & Independents Labour & Fianna Fail Fine Gael & Fianna Fail None of these/ Don’t know

13. Attitude to politics in Ireland todayHow much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (Base: All Adults aged 18+ 1,003) Agree Disagree D/K I will never vote Fianna Fail again after the last year % I have less trust in politicians than ever before % We should have defaulted on loans rather than bring in the IMF and EU % I would like to see a younger leader of a political party % A new political party is needed to make a real change to politics in Ireland % The government should have stood down ages ago %

14. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? “The government should have stood down ages ago” (Base: All adults 18+) % AGREE TOTAL Male Gender Female 18-24 Age 25-34 35-44 45-54 62% Agree 55-64 65+ ABC1 Social Class C2DE Dublin Region ROL 14% Disagree Munster Conn/Ulster Party Support at last GE Fianna Fáil Fine Gael 14% Don’t know Labour Sinn Fein

15. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? “I will never vote Fianna Fail again after the last year” (Base: All adults 18+) % AGREE TOTAL Male Gender Female 18-24 Age 25-34 35-44 45-54 51% Agree 55-64 65+ ABC1 Social Class C2DE Dublin Region ROL 27% Disagree Munster Conn/Ulster Party Support at last GE Fianna Fáil Fine Gael 22% Don’t know Labour Sinn Fein

16. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? “I have less trust in politicians than ever before” (Base: All adults 18+) % AGREE TOTAL Male Gender Female 18-24 Age 25-34 35-44 45-54 66% Agree 55-64 65+ ABC1 Social Class C2DE Dublin Region ROL 18% Disagree Munster Conn/Ulster Party Support at last GE Fianna Fáil Fine Gael 16% Don’t know Labour Sinn Fein

17. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? “We should have defaulted on loans rather than bring in the IMF and EU” (Base: All adults 18+) % AGREE TOTAL Male Gender Female 18-24 Age 25-34 35-44 45-54 45% Agree 55-64 65+ ABC1 Social Class C2DE Dublin Region ROL 28% Disagree Munster Conn/Ulster Party Support at last GE Fianna Fáil Fine Gael 27% Don’t know Labour Sinn Fein

18. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? “I would like to see a younger leader of a political party” (Base: All adults 18+) % AGREE TOTAL Male Gender Female 18-24 Age 25-34 35-44 45-54 57% Agree 55-64 65+ ABC1 Social Class C2DE Dublin Region ROL 19% Disagree Munster Conn/Ulster Party Support at last GE Fianna Fáil Fine Gael 24% Don’t know Labour Sinn Fein

19. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? “A new political party is needed to make a real change to politics in Ireland” (Base: All adults 18+) % AGREE TOTAL Male Gender Female 18-24 Age 25-34 35-44 61% Agree 45-54 55-64 65+ ABC1 Social Class C2DE Dublin Region 25% ROL Disagree Munster Conn/Ulster Party Support at last GE Fianna Fáil Fine Gael 14% Don’t know Labour Sinn Fein