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Energy Efficiency Assumptions in the WIRAB Low Carbon Case

Energy Efficiency Assumptions in the WIRAB Low Carbon Case. Thomas Carr Western Interstate Energy Board July 30, 2008 Studies Work Group Meeting Portland, OR. Overview. Purpose : Model 20% energy efficiency (EE) consistent with the WGA’s Clean and Diversified Energy Initiative

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Energy Efficiency Assumptions in the WIRAB Low Carbon Case

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  1. Energy Efficiency Assumptions in theWIRAB Low Carbon Case Thomas Carr Western Interstate Energy Board July 30, 2008 Studies Work Group Meeting Portland, OR

  2. Overview Purpose: Model 20% energy efficiency (EE) consistent with the WGA’s Clean and Diversified Energy Initiative • Identify the aggregate WECC-wide annual energy (GWh) path with 20% EE incorporating existing and future EE gains. • Allocate the annual energy EE impacts for the load bubbles in the TEPPC model consistent with the aggregate WECC-wide 20% EE target. • Represent EE impacts on load profiles.

  3. Studies Reviewed • CDEAC Energy Efficiency Task Force Report, Jan. 2006 • CDEAC Transmission Task Force Report, May 2006. • California Energy Commission, Scenario Analyses of California’s Electricity System, June 2007. • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Energy Efficiency in Western Utility Resource Plans, Aug. 2006.

  4. 1. Identify the aggregate WECC-wide annual energy (GWh) path with 20% EE incorporating existing and future EE gains.

  5. CDEAC Energy Efficiency Task Force • Analyzed the potential for attaining the WGA goal of 20% energy efficiency by 2020 • WGA 18-state footprint larger than the Western Interconnection • Evaluated EE impacts using EIA’s NEMS model

  6. CDEAC EE TF Scenarios • Reference scenario: EIA’s 2005 Reference Case, applied to WGA states, modified by: • 2005 Federal energy bill and EPA’s Energy Star programs • Current Activities scenario: accounts for estimated impacts of ongoing and recently enacted policies and programs at the state, regional and utility levels. • Estimated savings from current or committed policies, i.e. DSM programs, building codes, appliance standards • Best Practices scenario: assumes adoption of “best practices” in the 18 WGA states • Survey of best EE programs and policies in 18 WGA states • Estimated savings from each of the “best practices” • Derived total savings if adopted across all 18 WGA states

  7. CDEAC Energy Efficiency Task Force

  8. Apply CDEAC EE Task Force Scenarios to WECC Loads

  9. Allocate the annual energy EE impacts for the load bubbles in the TEPPC model consistent with the aggregate WECC-wide 20% EE target. => 919,660 GWh in 2017

  10. CDEAC Transmission TF modeled the High EE Case from SSG-WI Ref Case

  11. CEC Scenarios Analysis • Scenarios of high EE • Case 1B = existing requirements • Case 3A = high EE in CA • Case 3B = high EE in rest of WECC • Features • Detailed analysis of EE potential in CA IOUs, adjustment for POUs. Itron Study • CDEAC EE assumed for rest of WECC with proportional adjustment for all areas

  12. CEC Analysis of EE Potential in California

  13. CEC Analysis of EE by IOUs & POUs

  14. Apply EE% Targets to TEPPC Load Areas

  15. LBNL: EE in Western Utility IRPs • Analysis of 14 western IOUs treatment of energy efficiency resources in integrated resource plans (IRPs) • Evaluate how this information can be used to measure the progress of the WGA EE goal

  16. 3. Represent EE impacts on load profiles. • Promod • Adjustment mechanism to adjust load profile • CEC approach • Detailed profiles derived for EE changes • CEC represented EE as supply resource

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