Life on the margins: the inequality of food and nutrition security AGRI-FOOD BUSINESS

1. Life on the margins: the inequality of food and nutrition securityAGRI-FOOD BUSINESS PowerPoint presentation by Médecins Sans Frontières / Doctors Without Borders (MSF) UK Schools Team: Mary Doherty and Severa von Wentzel January 2014

2. Sustainability – SUPPLY and production

3. “Goals other than improved nutrition are pursued by strong economic and political interests in both the agricultural sector and the postharvest value chain. Farmers and other economic agents in food systems aim to make money subject to reasonable levels of risk, and governments pursue policies that are compatible with the interests of politically powerful stakeholder groups. Malnourished populations are rarely among these interests.” (Per Pinstrup-Andersen “Nutrition-sensitive food systems: from rhetoric to action” http://wphna.org/v2/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/13-08-03-Food-systems-and-nutrition-Pinstrup-Andersen-Lancet.pdf)

4. Food system • “Food systems encompass all the people, institutions and processes by which agricultural products are produced, processed and brought to consumers. They also include the public officials, civil society organizations, researchers and development practitioners who design the policies, regulations, programmes and projects that shape food and agriculture” (FAO “The State of Food and Agriculture 2013 http://www.fao.org/publications/sofa/en/) • The industrial food system started with the factory system of fast food, which changed how food was produced. • The food system is complex and involves many steps.

5. Food-secure livelihoods ultimately depend on sustainable production of food. Action for students: Watch the clip on agriculture and the green economy. Discuss: What is the difference between food security for ‘us’ and sustainable food systems for all and note the key points of the discussion in your folder. http://www.farmingfirst.org/green-economy/ What is green economy? Source: http://www.greenboardcoop.com/what-is-sustainable-food/

6. Sustainability or business as usual? (1) Image on sustainability http://www.vanderbilt.edu/sustainvu/cms/files/sustainability_spheres.png; Source: Edexcel Student Guide Unit 4, Option 3; http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCE%20New%20GCE/Unit-4-Option-3-Life-on the-margins-Food-supply-problem-final.ppt;

7. Sustainability or business as usual? (2) The sustainability discourse does not accept the externalisation of costs - the negative environmental, social and economic impacts - of food provision. In a well-functioning system, criteria need to overlap and work with all stages of food production to consumption. A well-functioning system: • Improves human health and social well-being • Maintains environment and economy long-term • Builds resilience at times of shocks from natural and man-made disasters. Resilience is the ability to withstand shock. Image on sustainability http://www.vanderbilt.edu/sustainvu/cms/files/sustainability_spheres.png; Source: Edexcel Student Guide Unit 4, Option 3; http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCE%20New%20GCE/Unit-4-Option-3-Life-on the-margins-Food-supply-problem-final.ppt;

8. Food systemNutrition and sustainability • The food system is currently not ensuring basic food and nutrition security and sustainability around the world. It is interrelated with rural poverty, gender inequality and environmental degradation. If we judge food security on the basis of production alone, it is already failing given hunger. • The food system considered as a whole needs to be reconceived with more emphasis on health and consumption if it is to secure positive nutritional outcomes for all and if sustainable practices are to be implemented throughout supply chains. The links from the food system to nutritional outcomes are often indirect and food system policies and interventions rarely have nutrition as their primary objective. • While sustainable strategies are the ideal, there is also a need for non-sustainable strategies such as food aid in emergencies.

9. Agronomic practices In agri-business there has been relatively little emphasis on how to grow food without as much fossil fuel - sustainable food production goes hand in hand with sustainable energy resources. More sustainable agricultural production systems that are proven to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, entail combinations of: • Integrated pest management • Strategic application of fertilisers and irrigation water • Low-impact pesticides • Precision-farming procedures Sustainable practices require a change in agricultural practices, lifestyles and urban and rural development. There is a link between sustainability and equity (e.g., for girls and women). • No-till or • Minimum tillage • Crop diversification • Crop rotation Source: Viglizzo 2012 as found in na.unep.net/geas/getuneppagewitharticleidscript.php?article_id=81

10. Agri-business labour violations Policies are inadequate or not sufficiently enforced to improve labour standards and ensure access to social safety nets. Routine violation of internationally regulated labour standards include: • Long hours • Low wages • Poor working conditions • 170,000 deaths / year of agricultural workers, 40,000 of whom killed by pesticide poisoning (ILO) • Wide-spread child labour: 130 – 150 million child labourers in agriculture (ILO 2010) Source: FairfoodInternationlhttp://www.fairfood.org/about-us/reports-and-organisation-documents/; ILO 2010 Accelaerating action against child labour www.ilo.org/ipecinfo/product/download.do?type=document&id=13853; http://:www.ilo.org/safework/info/WCMS_110188?lang--en/index.htm

11. Unsustainable food production • The negative impacts of the Green revolution and then (genetically modified) GM crops and the global food system became more topical in the 1990s following food price hikes. International companies are recognising more and more that it could be in their interest to shift to more sustainable practices. • Like developed countries, developing countries adopting Green Revolution Technologies are facing resource constraints and similar changes to natural ecosystems and loss of biodiversity due to the scale and intensity of food production on land and in the oceans. “The existence of over 4,000 plant and animal species is threatened by agricultural intensification” (Fairfood) Source: Edexcel Student Guide Unit 4, Option 3; http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCE%20New%20GCE/Unit-4-Option-3-Life-on-the-margins-Food-supply-problem-final.ppt.; Source: UN Documents, Our Common Future - http://www.un-documents.net/ocf-05.htm; http://www.fairfood.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Fairfood-International-Strategy_Final.pdf

12. Environmental sustainability Global Footprint Network devised an indicator of environmental sustainability – the ecological footprint (EF). The issues centre on land grabs, deforestation and replacement of staple food crops by biofuels. Deforestation for cash crops- most severe impact on mountainous areas, upland watersheds and dependent ecosystems Global focus on Eco footprints and food miles (sustainability), animal welfare, fair trade and exploitation of workers Further infoon sustainability http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/17_12_07_sustainguide.pdf Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/gfn/page/footprint_basics_overview/

13. Eco footprints Action for students: It will become imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a changing climate. Read about and discuss in class if your family could follow the example of the Hawksworth family http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/breakfast/6902850.stm • Per capita footprint can be used to: • highlight inequality of resource use • educate about overconsumption • show how many lifestyles are not sustainable. K Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Human_welfare_and_ecological_footprint.jpg

14. Food supply:human and physical factors • Set natural limits to production • Can be overcome with technology • Technology is costly • Eventually the law of diminishing returns apply • Variation in food supply ≠ Variation in food security • Production of crops for export can be high, while supply for local consumption can be low. Grey area between human and physical factors Source: Edexcel Student Guide Unit 4, Option 3; http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCE%20New%20GCE/Unit-4-Option-3-Life-on-the-margins-Food-supply-problem-final.ppt.

15. Food supply factors Action for students: Using Sub-Saharan Africa as an example • Read the report on the region http://www.afhdr.org/AfHDR/documents/chapter2.pdf and refer to the World Food Programme Global Security Updates and country updates http://www.wfp.org/content/global-update-food-security-monitoring • Prepare a slide that explains food supply factors, human and physical, to a fellow student. Source: Edexcel Student Guide Unit 4, Option 3; http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCE%20New%20GCE/Unit-4-Option-3-Life-on-the-margins-Food-supply-problem-final.ppt.

16. Food supply chain Food supply defines what food is available. Food availability is influenced by production and distribution of food – in a country and household. The supply chain charts its course from primary production to retail and service.Consumption is followed by waste management. Source: http://instruct.uwo.ca/geog/556/TNCs%20&%20Global%20Food%20Chain.pdf; Digby et al “A2 Geography for Edexcel”, p 282

17. World food supply chain Farm equipment manufacturers e.g., Deere & Company Hedge funds and other investment firms

18. Losses in the food supply chain Source: http://www.farmingfirst.org/green-economy/ ; http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_R4gXlIDAvmg/TIBSGFnyhUI/AAAAAAAAEjo/sZ6mqKj6ous/s1600/figure1.jpg

19. Up to half of the food that is produced for human consumption is lost or wasted annually, around 1.3 billion tonnes. Up to 40% of food rots on the way to market in India. Americans throw away up to 40% of what they buy. (Gustavsson et al 2011; Economist September 1st 2012 “Clean Plates”) Food Miles, losses and wastage Do greater and greater distances between growers and consumers matter? Most people associate food miles with final delivery transport , which actually only accounts for 4% of food emissions. What you eat and how much you waste tends to be more important than where it comes from. K Source: http://www.extension.harvard.edu/hub/blog/extension-blog/buying-local-do-food-miles-matter In the UK one quarter of the lorries are carrying food. Source: “Food Security and Sustainability: One Can’t Make an Omelette Without Cracking Some Eggs” http://vimeo.com/24914046 K Further infoon food miles: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/mar/23/food.ethicalliving Source on food emissions: http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/food-miles

20. The UK only grows half its vegetables and 10% of its fruit; big rise in imports. Source: “Food Security and Sustainability: One Can’t Make an Omelette Without Cracking Some Eggs” http://vimeo.com/24914046

21. Growing retail and processing share Most of the economic value of food is added beyond the farm gate: food processing and retail make up significant and growing fraction of world economic activity. Source: http://www.grida.no/files/publications/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf Source: http://www.globalpolicy.org/social-and-economic-policy/world-hunger/agribusiness-companies.html

22. Powerful intermediaries (1) Large transnational corporations dominate global food supply chains and have secured premium land. The global food economy has been driven by policies favouring agro-processing, foreign investment and exports, which has weakened the link between agricultural production and access to food. Source: http://www.atkearney.com/gbpc/ideas-insights/featured-article/-/asset_publisher/0cePdOWatojD/content/recipe-for-change-can-we-feed-the-world-/10192

23. Powerful intermediaries (2) • The intermediaries (a handful of multinationals) have increased their power and control over the entire food system – not the consumers or the farmers, producers and ranchers. • Three-hundred to 500 giant corporations control the bulk – 70%. • Whether it is in India, US or UK, farmers are controlled by the debt they need to take on to keep up with the technologies and systems imposed by large transnational corporations (TNCs). • Corporations look out for their brand survival and profit. There can be issues around accountability and regulation. • International food companies have strengthened their commitment to sustainability.

24. Consolidation of thegrain trade Powerful corporations determine prices and capture the growth in income and high return on equity rates whilst farmers experience a decline in their net income due to rising cost of inputs AND stable prices for their product. , • Source: http://www.ifpri.org/blog/price-spikes-volatility-and-global-food-markets

25. From seed to supermarket Action for students: • In pairs, consider the implications of the growing dominance of a few companies and countries, where large companies control substantial shares of the international markets for grains, fertilizers, pesticides and seeds and shape governments’ policies. • Explain how they control important functions of agricultural production and the food chain through vertical and horizontal integration*, global expansion and regional, national and global trade deals among other things. • Zoom the Seed Industry structure https://www.msu.edu/~howardp/seedindustry.html • Read The Economist article “The parable of the Sower” http://www.economist.com/node/14904184and • Read the Organic Consumer Association “Consolidation in Food and Agriculture” http://www.organicconsumers.org/articles/article_416.cfm * Vertical integration defines an arrangement “from seedling to supermarket” where the same corporation owns the producing, selling and distribution of a product or service. * Horizontal integration increases a corporations scale by buying a firm at the same production of development, which leads to fewer players or monopolies

26. AGRI-FOOD-SYSTEM:The Green Revolution

27. “The agricultural systems that have been built up over the past few decades have contributed greatly to the alleviation of hunger and the raising of living standards. They have served their purposes up to a point....New realities reveal their inherent contradictions. These realities require agricultural systems that focus as much attention on people as they do on technology, as much on resources as on production, as much on the long term as on the short term. Only such systems can meet the challenge of the future.” (UN Documents, Our Common Future - http://www.un-documents.net/ocf-05.htm)

28. Ecosystem (1) Agriculture needs to be thought of as part of a larger ecosystem linked to society and human well-being and ecosystem function. In order to preserve ecosystem service, the expansion of land area for agriculture needs to be restricted. Image: http://www.micologica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Ecosystem.jpg; http://udallcenter.arizona.edu/lauralhlab/aboutecosystemservices.html

29. Ecosystem (2)

30. Agricultural terms “Commercial Farming- the growing of crops / rearing of livestock to make a profit. Common in most countries Subsistence Farming- where there is just sufficient food produced to provide for the farmer's own family Arable Farming- involves the growing of crops Pastoral Farming- involves the rearing of livestock Mixed Farming- involves a combination of arable and pastoral farming Intensive Farming - where the farm size is small in comparison with the large amount of labour, and inputs of capital, fertilisers etc. which are required. Extensive Farming - where the size of a farm is very large in comparison to the inputs of money, labour etc.. Needed Industrial agriculture – entails intensifcation, concentration and specialisation. High Yielding Variety (HYV): plant has higher yield, matures more quickly, shorter stems, narrower leaves, standard length/height and insensitive to day length. Higher yield is dependent on a combination of inputs. Agro-processing= process whereby primary agricultural products are turned into commodities for market, peanuts to peanut butter. Agribusiness - involves the large corporate organisation of farming- often farms are run for profit maximisation and economy of scale. Agribusiness often takes over two more stages of the system, e.g. inputs and processes” (Source: text taken verbatim - http://thebritishgeographer.weebly.com/spatial-patterns-of-food.html) Source: Adapted from Witherick M. And S. Warn Farming, Food and Famine; Edexcel Student Guide Unit 4, Option 3; http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCE%20New%20GCE/Unit-4-Option-3-Life-on-the-margins-Food-supply-problem-final.ppt. http://www.slideshare.net/rgamesby/7-green-revolution

31. Agriculture Food and agriculture are the world’s largest industry. Growth in agriculture has a key role in reducing hunger, malnutrition and ultra poverty, although the impact of growth is slow. Agriculture underpins the economic and social development of people in developing countries in particular. Image: : www.bae.ncsu.edu

32. Agriculture “The traditional role of agriculture in producing food and generating income is fundamental, but agriculture and the entire food system – from inputs and production, through processing, storage, transport and retailing, to consumption – can contribute much more to the eradication of malnutrition.” (FAO “The State of Food and Agriculture 2013) Feeding the world population and protecting land depend in large part on increasing yields, but high-yield varieties and resource-intensive techniques are not the only answer or a magic bullet. This emphasis comes at the cost of multiple social, political, cultural and environmental impacts and benefits. The choices we make in agriculture and consumption and the policies enacted by our representatives directly affect: • Our livelihoods; • Nutrition and development of our children; • Community health and well-being; and • Our cultural heritages and ecosystem function and services such as pollination. Source: IAASTD Factsheet http://www.globalonenessproject.org/sites/default/files/downloads/IAASTD%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf

33. Food and agriculture equation Production Land Water Inputs and transport costs Labour Technology Agrarian structure Climate change Demand Income growth Poverty and inequality Consumer behaviour Bioenergy (oil etc) Biomass (CO2) Trade and markets Information and standards Supermarkets Source: http://www.slideshare.net/jvonbraun/agriculture-for-sustainable-economic-development-a-global-rd-initiative-to-avoid-a-deep-and-complex-crisis

34. Sources of growth in crop production “There are places where too little is grown; there are places where large numbers cannot afford to buy food. And there are broad areas of the Earth, in both industrial and developing nations, where increases in food production are undermining the base for future production.” (UN Documents, Our Common Future - http://www.un-documents.net/ocf-05.htm) Source: FAO; http://www.farmingfirst.org/green-economy/

35. Agricultural curve Action for students: Agro-industrialisation erodes the comparative advantage of smallholders, raising pressure to commercialise or leave the sector. Discuss in pairs how this can lead to growing inequality. Commercial chemical farming can have higher capacity and productivity, hence, output of land and labour. Source: Adapted from Witherick M. And S. Warn Farming, Food and Famine

36. The role of innovation, science and technology (1) Image: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/003/y1860e/y1860e00.pdf

37. The role of innovation, science and technology (2) • Technology can help overcome physical factors, e.g.temperature, water and nutrient deficiencies. • Health innovations, more affordable transportation and communication in one part of the world can positively impact other parts. • Technological advances can lead to greater food supply, but some areas are also more suited to food production such as the great plains of America and Russia. Action for students: • Read the FAO article on the role of technology (biotechnology, sustainable agriculture, future research) and print and annotate the graph alongside. Discuss your annotations with a partner. Retain the graph for revision http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/y3557e/y3557e09.htm • “The Future of Food and Farming”: http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/food-and-farming/11-547-future-of-food-and-farming-summary.pdf

38. Large-scale profit motive • The world agriculture, food and nutrition situation for the poor is not sustainable on the production and consumption side. • Dominant players in agri-business have harnessed ‘modern’ technology to drive high-profit, large-scale, resource-intensive agriculture – from subsistence to surplus farming. • Agri-business aims to increase profit by removing pest weeds, reducing weeds and increasing production per area. • Agri-busines seeks to increase profit by using machinery, chemicals, antibiotics and animal / fish feed • The main beneficiaries of the technological advances such as high-yielding crop varieties, agro-chemicals and mechanisation have been TNCs and the wealthy, not the hungry or poor.

39. Food supply and technological advances • Technological advances can lead to greater food supply, but there is a law of diminishing returns. Advances can have a negative impact on the environment problems and social equity. • The undesired consequences include pollution, eutrophication, deforestation, degradation, desertification, soil erosion and salinsation, antibiotic resistance • Monoculture depletes the land of its nutrients. Source: www.relationship-economy.com Source: Edexcel Student Guide Unit 4, Option 3; http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCE%20New%20GCE/Unit-4-Option-3-Life-on-the-margins-Food-supply-problem-final.ppt.

40. Green Revolution – Technology-package approach Subsistence farming Small, extensive farms Increasing dominance oflarge agri-chemical TNCs Green Revolution Pesticides / Biocides Fertilisers Animal feeds Miracle crops Damage to rural economy, environment and ecosystem The Green revolution, the move from subsistence to large-scale farming, was indeed a revolution. Larger, intensive farms Greater yields, greater profit Rural to Urban migration Expensive schemes Irrigation and Fertilisers Loss of subsistence farming Issues with debt, control, land ownership Poorer farmers cannot compete Source: Adapted from peterelliott.net/powerpoint/Geography%20AS%20Rural.ppt

41. Large-scale, high-intensity food production Images: http://oneaction.ch/industrial-agriculture/; http://www.thinkgreenliveclean.com/2010/01/the-increased-impact-of-the-food-we-eat/

42. Green revolution - background Dr. Norman E. Borlaug Ron Sachs-Pool/Getty Images “These and other developments in agriculture contain the makings of a new revolution. It is not a violent red Revolution like that of the Soviets nor is it a White Revolution like that of the Shah of Iran. I call it the Green revolution” – William Goud, Director USAID 1968 • Green Revolution consisted of research transfer initiatives, technology and developments between 1940s and 1970 that markedly increased agricultural production starting in the 1960s in LEDC. • Global development people and power considered it essential, given population growth, to increase yields and living standards in LEDC to stave off famine and communism • Growing single crops for cash, mechanisation of farming, development and concentration of agri-economy • Largely funded by Rockefeller and Ford Foundations, which also founded the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines in 1960. • Substantial improvements in crop production in Asia and South America, India and China. India most successful experiment; Large parts of Africa have not benefitted because crops not suited to crop conditions there and other impediments to the implementation of the technology package such as transport Further info: On the success and failures of the Green Revolutionhttp://www.slideshare.net/cheergalsal/green On degraded soil and food shortages: http://passthrough.fw-notify.net/download/834312/http://www.nutritionsecurity.org/PDF/DegradedSoils.pdf Quote taken from http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/interview/earthdays-norman-borlaug/

43. CGIAR and GASFPWorld Bank The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), including the World Bank, FAO, IFAD and UNDP was one of the key actors in the Green Revolution. A worldwide network of agricultural research centres, it “was established in 1971 as part of the international response to widespread concern in the 1950s, ’60s and early ’70s that many developing countries would succumb to hunger.”(http://www.cgiarfund.org/history). It continues to support agricultural research and monitor agricultural trade to identify potential food shortages. The Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP) was established in 2010 by the World Bank at the request of the G20 as an innovative, multi-donor and multi-stakeholder approach with public and private actors, large and small scale farmers, civil society and such to address food security Further info: • On CGIARhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eP41jc8xJk8 • On GASFP http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/ResolvingFoodCrisis.pdf

44. Green Revolution Agricultural modernisation programme: large-scale, investment-heavy, industrial farming techniques; move from subsistence to commercial farming. Action for students: Use this table and relevant slides in this section to write a report: “The green revolution is not without controversy.” Discuss. Graph: The Green Revolution http://www.slideshare.net/rgamesby/7-green-revolution; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

45. Energy and food production • Energy-related expenses vary between crops and also affect livestock producers. • With the Green revolution, agriculture has become increasingly dependent on fossil fuel inputs (global oil consumption doubles every 10 years) as machines replaced farm workers, whilst world oil reserves have been dwindling and mismanagement of natural resources is common. • Intensive agriculture consumes large amounts of energy especially in the production of field crops and meat. • It is sensitive to energy prices for refined petroleum, electricity, natural gas and coal, which it requires for: - Direct energy consumption through combustion of fossil fuels for farm machinery and electricity for irrigation and other equipment. • Energy-related inputs, especially to manufacture fertiliser and pesticides and prepare seeds • Retail food prices are less affected by increased agricultural commodity prices than energy costs in food processing, distribution and marketing from the farmgate through wholesale and retail levels. USDA “Impacts of Higher Energy Prices on Agriculture and Rural Economies”, http://www.usda.gov; UNEP “The end of cheap oil: a threat to food security and an incentive to reduce fossil fuels in agriculture”, http://na.unep.net/geas/getuneppagewitharticleidscript.php?article_id=81

46. Water • Food production generally requires massive amounts of water. Examples: • 1 kg of wheat needs 1000l of water; 1 kg of rice needs 3,000l. • Producing one litre of biofuel requires 2,500 litres of water (UNESCO) • Irrigation can ensure an adequate and reliable supply of water which increases yields of most crops by up to 400%. • Although only 17% of global cropland is irrigated, it produces 40% of the world's food. • Ongoing food availability depends on increasing irrigation efficiency and limiting environment damage through salinisation, damaged aquifers or reduced soil fertility. Source: Edexcel Student Guide Unit 4, Option 3; http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCE%20New%20GCE/Unit-4-Option-3-Life-on-the-margins-Food-supply-problem-final.ppt; Graph: http://www.bunge.com/citizenship/water_world.html#; Map: http://theresilientearth.com/files/images/agricultural_water_use_world_2001.png; http://www.fao.org/nr/water/docs/wateratfao.pdf; Teacher resource slide: Agricultural production and trade

47. Source: Edexcel Student Guide Unit 4, Option 3; http://www.edexcel.com/migrationdocuments/GCE%20New%20GCE/Unit-4-Option-3-Life-on-the-margins-Food-supply-problem-final.ppt; Graph: http://www.bunge.com/citizenship/water_world.html#; Map: http://theresilientearth.com/files/images/agricultural_water_use_world_2001.png; http://www.fao.org/nr/water/docs/wateratfao.pdf; Teacher resource slide: Agricultural production and trade

48. Improving water productivity is key Water productivity can be improved through increasing yields and drip irrigation. Source: http://www.farmingfirst.org/green-economy/

49. Global Water Gap Water is critical and agriculture’s main limiting factor. Source: http://www.farmingfirst.org/green-economy/

50. World fertiliser consumption World fertiliser use has grown fivefold since 1960. The FAO predicts global fertiliser use to grow to 188 million tonnes by 2030 (IAASTD 2009) Further info: Financial Times article on “Agricultural pollution: Inputs that place huge pressure on the land”http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a06792c0-0a00-11df-8b23-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2gFmqHFVj K Source: http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/global.html