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Observations Drawn from the NCHEMS Feasibility and Demand Study

National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251. Observations Drawn from the NCHEMS Feasibility and Demand Study. Presented to the AZ AIR Prescott, Arizona April 4, 2008. Activities of the Project.

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Observations Drawn from the NCHEMS Feasibility and Demand Study

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  1. National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251 Observations Drawn from the NCHEMS Feasibility and Demand Study Presented to the AZ AIR Prescott, Arizona April 4, 2008

  2. Activities of the Project • Data Analysis • Regional Forums • Simulation Models

  3. Arizona Is Behind the U.S. in the Education Attainment Levels of Its Young Adult Population And It Is Losing Ground Rapidly.

  4. Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group—Arizona, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries, 2004 Source: Education at a Glance 2005, Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

  5. Percent of Adults with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Age Group—Arizona, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries, 2004 Source: Education at a Glance 2005, OECD

  6. Difference in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults—United States, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey (ACS) and ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File

  7. South Carolina New Mexico Connecticut Washington Oklahoma California Colorado Vermont Arizona Nevada Oregon Alaska Florida Hawaii Maine Texas Idaho Percentage Differences Between Younger (Age 25-34) and Older (Age 45-54) Populations with College Degrees, Associate and Higher, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

  8. 77.7% 84.2% 9.0% 26.3% 9.2% Educational Attainment and Rank Among States—Arizona, 2005 (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

  9. The Gap in Education Attainment Is Reflected in Per Capita Incomes

  10. Per Capita Personal Income, 2005 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  11. U.S. Average Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average—Arizona, 1960-2005 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce

  12. Becoming Internationally Competitive Would Require a Large Increase in Annual Degree Production. Part of This Increase Would Have to Come from “Re-Entry” Students.

  13. 140,533 131,749 94,162 Massachusetts North Dakota Rhode Island New York Nebraska Colorado Iowa Utah The “Gap”—Difference in Annual Degrees Currently Produced and Annual Degrees Needed to Meet Benchmark Accounting for Migration Arizona’s 29,290 = 101% Increase (Assuming All Growth in Public Sector) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS and Population Projections, IPEDS Completions Survey 2004-05

  14. 1,333,645 Closing the Gap in the Educational Pipeline In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states cannot close the gap with even current best performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline—getting older adults back into the education system and on track to attaining college degrees. Source: “Making Opportunity Affordable” project (Lumina, Jobs for the Future, NCHEMS), Summer 2007

  15. Increase required without migration Increase required with current levels of migration Increase in Certificates and Degrees Produced, 2007-25 (In Addition to Number Currently Produced)

  16. Projected Increase in Population Arizona Is Projected to Have a Large Increase in Population that Will: • Be Concentrated in Three Counties • Consist Primarily of Subpopulations that Historically Have not Been Well Served by Higher Education

  17. 93.3 85.8 -3.3 Projected Percent Change in Total Population, 2000-2025 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  18. 1,992,244 -76 Projected Change in Total Arizona Population By County, 2006-2025 Source: Arizona Dept. of Commerce, Arizona Dept. of Economic Security

  19. 393.3 Projected Change in Arizona Population by Age Group and County, 2006-2025 Source: Arizona Dept. of Commerce, Arizona Dept. of Economic Security

  20. 180,841 107,467 Projected Change in Arizona Population Age 15-24 By Race/Ethnicity and County, 2006-2025 Source: Arizona Dept. of Commerce, Arizona Dept. of Economic Security

  21. Native American/ Asian/ WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/Latino Alaska Native Pacific Islander Males Males Males Males Males Females Females Females Females Females Top Country (Canada) Top Country (Norway) U.S. Index = 72% U.S. Index = 81% Percent Educational Attainment of Arizona’s Young Workforce (Age 25-34)—Indexed to Most Educated Country, 2005 All College Degrees (Associate or Higher) Bachelor's Degree or Higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD

  22. Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)

  23. 56,988 90,210 Increases in Enrollment by 2025 Based on Population Growth and Participation Rates by County

  24. Arizona Historically Has Relied on In-Migration for Much of Its Workforce

  25. Less than HS High School Some College Associate Bachelor’s Graduate/Prof. Total Arizona Net Gain of Residents by Degree Level and Age Group, 1995-2000 22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files

  26. NCHEMS Analytical Framework (Draft) • Arizona in a National and International Context • Educational Attainment • Performance Within the Educational System • Population Characteristics` • Economic Competitiveness • Etc. • Race/Ethnic and Regional Differences Within the State • A Model that Will Take Into Account Potential Future Changes in: • Population Growth • High School Graduation Rates • College-Going and Participation Rates • Persistence and Completion Rates • Closing Race/Ethnic Gaps • Closing Regional Gaps • The Cost Per FTE Student - "Business as Usual" • Supply vs. Demand in Key High-Demand Occupations (Present and Future) • Healthcare Occupations • Teaching • High Tech Occupations • (Regional Differences for the Above) • Educational Requirements and Degrees Needed to Meet Demand in and Expand the 12 "Industries of Opportunity" The Variation in Which the Above Issues Apply Regionally The Role and Ability of the Local Institutions in Addressing the Issues The Relationship Between Local Institutions and Local Workforce Demand and Economic Development • Final Report • Highlighting the Findings from Above • Policy Options • Cost Implications Data and Information Project Activity Outcomes Consensus on the Most Important Issues Facing the State Creating a Framework for the Regional Meetings and the Final Report Comparative Data Analysis • A Planning Tool that Can Be Used for: • Assessing the Impact of Achieving a Variety of Goals on Enrollment and Degree Production • Which Improvements Would Yield the Greatest Impact • Costs Associated with Meeting Performance Goals • Cost Savings Associated with Improved Efficiency • Cost Savings Associated with Alternative Methods of Delivery (e.g. 2+2, Distance Learning, etc.) Student Flow Simulation Model A Model that Will Estimate the Amount of Need-Based Grant Aid Needed to Ensure Affordability at the Public Institutions Grounded Conceptually on the Principle that Students and Their Families, the Federal Government and the State Bear Primary Responsibility for Making College Affordable Student Financial Aid Simulation Model A Planning Tool for Estimating the Investment Needed from the State According to Shared Responsibility • To Gain a Better Sense of: • The Shortages In Key Occupations - the Gaps Between Supply and Demand • Regional Differences - and the Institutions Positioned to Address the Gaps • Degrees Needed to Expand Key Industries of Opportunity Assessment of Workforce Needs Garnering Consensus on the Key Issues Around the State More Insight Into How Potential Strategies Should Play Out Regionally Regional Visits

  27. Simulation Models • Student Flow Model • Enrollment Projection Model • Occupation Projection Model

  28. Student Flow Model—A Tool to Help Guide Policy Decisions Policy Parameters • High School Graduation • College-Going • Participation Rates of Non-Traditional Adults • First-Year Retention Rates • Transfer from Two- to Four-Year Institutions • Graduation Rates • Population Growth (Impacting All of the Above) (continued)

  29. Student Flow Model—A Tool to Help Guide Policy Decisions (continued) • Change in Annual Enrollment • Change in Certificates/Degrees Awarded • Cost to State and Students—“Business as Usual” Model Outputs

  30. Enrollment Projection Model • Model Inputs • Enrollment of First-Time Students by Age Group and County of Origin • Population Projections by Age Group and County of Origin • Model Outputs • Institutional Undergraduate Enrollment Changes from 2005 to 2025 • Additional Undergraduate Enrollments with Increased Participation Rates Assumption: Regional Patterns of Enrollment Stay the Same—i.e., Institutions Continue to Draw Their Students from the Same Counties at the Same Rates

  31. Occupation Model—A Tool to Help Gauge Which Occupations Will Have the Greatest Shortages Model Inputs • Projected Annual Openings by Occupation from 2000 to 2025 (Provided by DES) • Current Annual Degree Production by the Fields Associated with Occupations Above—Carried Out to 2025 (Provided by NCES) (continued)

  32. Occupation Model—A Tool to Help Gauge Which Occupations Will Have the Greatest Shortages (continued) Model Outputs • Additional Workers Needed • Additional Workers Needed (with College Degrees) • Projected Annual Openings (Growth + Turnover) • Projected Annual Surplus or Shortage (Degree Production, Fewer Openings) • Impact of All of the Above on the 12 Industries of Opportunity

  33. Regional Forums

  34. Building a State-Wide Public Agenda “SWOT”

  35. Strengths • Traction • Governor’s Attention • Culture of Change

  36. Weaknesses • Data System – availability to move quickly on technical issues • Lack of an Established Public Entity to Lead a State-Wide Public Agenda Over Time

  37. Opportunities • Chartering “Unchartered Territory” – the chance to set a precedent for the nation • Improving Performance of Certain Race/Ethnic Populations • Creative Program Delivery • Lack of an Established Public Entity that Has a Long-Established History of Doing the Wrong Things

  38. Threats • Sustainability • Retreating Away from the Concept of “Collective Action”

  39. Developing a Statewide Accountability System

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