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Econometrics. Chapter 13 Heteroskedasticity. Heteroskedasticity - Chapter 13. Gauss-Markov Theorem – A3 Errors have a constant variance from observation to observation If this is Not True:
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Econometrics Chapter 13 Heteroskedasticity
Heteroskedasticity - Chapter 13 • Gauss-Markov Theorem – A3 • Errors have a constant variance from observation to observation • If this is Not True: • Some data points will be more accurate measures of the true relationships between the variables than others • This is True because:
Heteroskedasticity – continuedWhy Some Data More Accurately Reflect Relationships Among Variables • Larger random numbers have larger variances • Averages have smaller variances as the number of observations that produced the averages rises • Quality of data measurement varies • Inherent variances in the unobserved factors can cause Error Terms in our models
Heteroskedasticity – continuedConsequences of Heteroskedasticity • OLS Estimates of the Betas are Unbiased • OLS Estimates of the Betas are Consistent • OLS Estimates of the Betas become Inconsistent • OLS Estimates of the Standard Errors of the Betas become Biased and Inconsistent
Heteroskedasticity – continuedDetecting Heteroskedasticity • Graphically • “Trumpet-Shaped” Residuals • Goldfeld-Quandt Test • Different “Grouped” Regressions • GQ = SSR1 / SSR2 • If No Hetero, Then GQ = 1 • Use F-test • Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Test • Squared Residuals are Regressed on Squared LHS Variables • BPG = N x R2 should = 0 if Homoskedastic • Use Chi-Squared Test
Heteroskedasticity – continuedCorrecting For Heteroskedasticity • Transform the variables using weighted least squares method • Known form of Heteroskedasticity • White Test • Then use WLS • Used for Unknown Forms • Best Guess as To Weights • No “Good” Solution
Heteroskedasticity – continuedSummary – Chapter 13 • Heteroskedasticity: Some data points are more reliable than others – they have a smaller variance, lie closer to the true relationship between the variables in a regression, and are better indicators of what the true data generating process is
Heteroskedasticity – continuedSummary – Chapter 13 • Scale, Averaging, and Data Quality may cause Heteroskedasticity • OLS Is Unbiased and Consistent in the presence of Heteroskedasticity • OLS becomes Inefficient in the presence of Heteroskedasticity • The Estimated Standard Errors of the parameters are Biased – can’t assess the precision of estimates or test hypothesis about them
Heteroskedasticity – continuedSummary – Chapter 13 • Weighted Least Squares can be used to de-emphasize high variance observations and produce efficient estimates when Heteroskedasticity is of known form • Goldfeldt-Quandt and Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Tests can detect Heteroskedasticity • White Test can detect Heteroskedasticity of unknown form