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A Perfect Storm?

A Perfect Storm?. Andrew Pritchard Director of Policy & Infrastructure . Welfare Reform. Bedroom tax/spare room subsidy (April 2013) Benefits Cap (from July 2013) Annual increases in benefits limited to 1% Universal Credit (from October 2013)

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A Perfect Storm?

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  1. A Perfect Storm? Andrew Pritchard Director of Policy & Infrastructure

  2. Welfare Reform • Bedroom tax/spare room subsidy (April 2013) • Benefits Cap (from July 2013) • Annual increases in benefits limited to 1% • Universal Credit (from October 2013) • Localisation (& reduction) of Council Tax Benefit • Work Programme (ongoing) • Adult Social Care White Paper

  3. Housing Reform • 50% reduction in public investment in social housing • Introduction of ‘affordable rent’ (80% of market rent) • Re-invigorated right to buy • Housing Revenue Account (HRA) Reform • Greater emphasis on private rented sector

  4. Planning Reform • Abolition of regional targets for market and affordable housing and for G&T pitch provision (but not supporting evidence…) • Introduction of NPPF • Greater emphasis on ‘viability’ • Neighbourhood planning

  5. At a time of economic uncertainty… • Low GDP growth • Falling productivity • Rising unemployment • Low income growth • Relatively high inflation • Interest rates at an all time low - but access to finance still a problem

  6. How does it all add up? • Will there be sufficient accommodation for people to down-size to? • Will the benefits cap drive internal migration? • Is the affordable rent model viable everywhere? • What will happen to those who cannot pay and cannot move? • What will be the impact on local economies and housing markets? • What will be the impact on local planning - both policy and development management?

  7. Are we heading for a ‘perfect storm’?

  8. …or will it all be OK in the end?

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