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What do we know about cash payments? IACA’s Global Payments Survey Project

What do we know about cash payments? IACA’s Global Payments Survey Project. Third International Conference Cash Circulation: Models, Standards, Tendencies Moscow, November 2009 Eugenie Foster. Agenda. The International Association of Currency Affairs (IACA) Global Payments Survey Project

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What do we know about cash payments? IACA’s Global Payments Survey Project

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  1. What do we know about cash payments?IACA’s Global Payments Survey Project Third International Conference Cash Circulation: Models, Standards, Tendencies Moscow, November 2009 Eugenie Foster

  2. Agenda • The International Association of Currency Affairs (IACA) Global Payments Survey Project • Literature review • Forecasts • Central Bank Forum on Payment Surveys Eugenie Foster LLC

  3. IACA • IACA: International Association of Currency Affairs • Not for profit organization that provides opportunities for stakeholders in the cash cycle to share information and collaborate Eugenie Foster LLC

  4. GPSP • Global Payment Survey Project: • Cash cycle stakeholders need robust and unbiased payments data • IACA is working to develop an overview of global payments trends, with emphasis on cash payments data • IACA’s view of the issue is international Eugenie Foster LLC

  5. Existing Payments Data • Central banks collect extensive data series on noncash instruments • There are no standard data series for cash, so central banks survey or model to estimate cash payments • Retail, banking, payment card, post, and other national organizations may collect payment data and/or conduct surveys • Commercial organizations that collect payment data generally do not publish widely. Their surveys may be less robust than the central banks’ Eugenie Foster LLC

  6. GPSP literature review • IACA funded a review of payments research published by central banks and other significant national organizations • Emphasis is on the period after 2003, with several earlier studies that had wide influence • Data reported here comes from central bank literature unless otherwise identified Eugenie Foster LLC

  7. Literature Review Results Eugenie Foster LLC

  8. Trends Eugenie Foster LLC

  9. Payment Surveys Eugenie Foster LLC

  10. Retail Payments Trends Eugenie Foster LLC

  11. Austria Eugenie Foster LLC Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank

  12. Austria Eugenie Foster LLC Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank

  13. Austria Eugenie Foster LLC Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank

  14. United States Consumer Preferences Eugenie Foster LLC Source: BAI/Hitachi

  15. Australia Eugenie Foster LLC

  16. Costs Eugenie Foster LLC

  17. Cost Analyses Eugenie Foster LLC Cost calculation methodologies vary

  18. Belgium: Breakeven Points Eugenie Foster LLC

  19. Consumer Preferences Eugenie Foster LLC

  20. Reasons for using cash Eugenie Foster LLC

  21. Reasons for using cards Eugenie Foster LLC

  22. Forecasts Eugenie Foster LLC

  23. Cash Payment Forecasts Eugenie Foster LLC

  24. Payments Timeline Eugenie Foster LLC

  25. Russia Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation Eugenie Foster LLC

  26. Non Cash Transactions Eugenie Foster LLC Capgemini World Payments Report 2009

  27. Currency in Circulation United States Russia Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation Eugenie Foster LLC

  28. Observations Eugenie Foster LLC

  29. Literature Review Observations • More than 13 central banks and national organizations have published results of payments surveys since 2003 • There are no agreed methodologies for payment surveys • While specific details vary by country, the general retail payments trends are moving in similar directions Eugenie Foster LLC

  30. What the research says about the future of cash • No other payment instrument provides all of the functionality of cash • Cash demand and use for payments will continue for the foreseeable future • Currency in circulation will grow (or contract) with the economy • Currency will be used for small value payments and as a store of value • Debit card use is the strongest growth trend • Other payment instruments may emerge Eugenie Foster LLC

  31. Central Bank Forum on Payment Surveys Eugenie Foster LLC

  32. Central Bank Forum on Payment Surveys • In March 2008, IACA hosted economists and cash experts from 8 central banks to share their experiences with consumer payments surveys • Presentations on 5 surveys • Participants agreed on the value of exchanging views • Identified a glossary of payment survey terms as a first step Eugenie Foster LLC

  33. GPSP Next Steps • IACA is funding development of a glossary of payment survey terms • IACA will continue to host central bank dialogue on payment surveys • Proposed second Central Bank Forum on Payment Surveys in May 2010 in Buenos Aires, Argentina • Forum focus will be on the glossary and standards for future payment surveys Eugenie Foster LLC

  34. Thank you for your attention Eugenie Foster LLC

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