UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP (UCACN) Setting the Stage

1. UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP (UCACN) Setting the Stage Dennis W. Staley Executive Officer, NCEP

2. Outline • NOAA/NWS/NCEP Update • NAS/NAPA Report Summary • Disaster Recovery Act: Sandy Supplemental • FY13 Accomplishments • FY14: A Look Ahead • Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations from January 2013 Report *

3. NOAA/NWS/NCEP Update • Dr. Bill M. Lapenta Announced as New NCEP Director on January 6, 2014 • Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Takes Reigns as NWS Director in February 2013 • NWS Director Top Priorities • Develop a Transparent and Credible Budget and Planning Process (New Budget Structure; HQ Reorganization) • Ensure NWS Remains a Viable Science-Based, Service Delivery Organization (Integrated Field Structure; Consistency) • Committed to Weather Ready Nation Strategic Outcome and Six NWS Strategic Goals *

4. NWS Strategic PlanGoals • Improve Weather Decision Services for Events that Threaten Lives and Livelihoods (IDSS) • Deliver a Broad Suite of Improved Water Forecasting Services to Support Management of the Nation’s Water Supply (Water) • Enhance Climate Services to Help Communities, Businesses and Governments Understand and Adapt to Climate Related Risks (Climate) • Improve Sector-Relevant Information in Support of Economic Productivity (Enable Economy) • Enable Integrated Environmental Forecast Services Supporting Healthy Communities and Ecosystems (Healthy Ecosystems) • Sustain a Highly Skilled, Professional Workforce Equipped with the Training, Tools and Infrastructure to Meet Our Mission (Workforce) • Foundation for Moving Forward • Stakeholder & Employee Buy-in *

5. NOAA/NWS/NCEP Update • Challenging Year with Sequestration Impacts (and Government Shutdown) • 5% Across the Board Reduction • NOAA Hiring Freeze • Travel Restrictions • However, Optimism Growing with Passing of Final Congressional Budget (Omnibus Bill Provides $100+M Over FY14 Full Year Continuing Resolution for NWS) • Sandy Supplemental Provides Opportunity for Quantum Leap in All Aspects of End-to-End Forecast Process *

6. Key HQ Activities • Established New Planning and Budgeting Process (More Transparent/Credible) - Both Internally (Employees) and Externally (Key Stakeholders) • Centered around Functions of the End-to-End Forecast Process (Obs, Central Processing, Analyze Forecast and Support, Dissemination, Science and Technology Integration) • New Budget Structure Supported up to OMB Level • Go Live in FY15 • Finalizing New HQ Reorganization • Established New Water Center in Alabama *

7. NWS Budget Restructuring Programs Portfolios Surface, Ocean & Upper Air Observations, Aircraft Obs, Radiosondes, NEXRAD, ASOS, Buoys, Snow Surveys, Profilers, National Mesonet, Observations Support Observations John Murphy Data Collection/Display, AWIPS, Model Implementations, Supercomputing, Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System Central Processing Ben Kyger Analyze, Forecast, Support WFO Forecasts & Warnings, National Service Centers, River Forecast Centers, Tsunami Services, Decision Support Services, WCM Program Andy Stern IT & Dissemination Systems; Telecommunications Gateway, NOAA Weather Radio; NEXTGEN, Ground Readiness, NOMADS Disseminate Luis Cano Science & Technology Integration Research/Development/Assess, Environmental Modeling Center, Test and Demonstration, WRN Pilot Projects, Testbeds, Training, CSTAR, Education & Outreach * Ming Ji

8. NAS/NAPA Summary (Key Drivers for NWS Future) • National Academy of Science (NAS) Report: ‘Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None” • National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) Report: “Forecast for the Future” • Foundation for Moving NWS/NCEP Forward • Both Reports Endorsed Weather Ready Nation Concept and Six (6) NWS Strategic Goals • Both Identified Recommendations in Computing, Modeling, R2O *

9. NAPA Report: Forecast for the Future *Restructured/transparent budget follows function *New NWSEO relationship *

10. NAPA Report:Grand Challenges • Pace of Change:Orderly Process vs. Immediate Savings • Budget Restructuring:Aligning budget to function and linking to performance • Managing Innovation:Engaging all stakeholders and avoiding hidden costs • Consistent Services: Timely, Accurate, Reliable Services Consistent Across the Nation • Labor / Management Relations: Building a strategic partnership *

11. Sandy Supplemental • Provides $466M to NOAA to Address Sandy Mitigation ($87M to NWS) • Key Areas: • Observations • Computing Capacity • Model Upgrades • Dissemination: Ground Readiness • Storm Surge Enhancements • Training; Including Social Science • JPSS Gap Mitigation • Facilities Repairs • A “Game Changer” for Enhancing the Entire Forecast Process • Offers Opportunity to Accelerate Major Advancements to the Operational Computer and Model Infrastructure • Monthly Tracking and Reporting Required (Over 30 Different Projects Being Tracked and Reported up to Congress) *

12. Sandy Supplemental Projects *

13. Sandy Supplemental 1900 208 208 73 *

14. FY14 Omnibus Bill • Provides $1.07B to NWS: $119M Increase Over the FY14 Full Year Continuing Resolution • Highlights: • Labor and Operations - $23M • Expand and Accelerate Weather Forecasting R2O - $14.8M • Strengthen U. S. Tsunami Warning Network - $5.9M • National Mesonet Network - $6.5M • Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services - $4.0M • Aviation Weather - $5.7M • Weather & Climate Supercomputing - $9.4M • WFO Construction - $5M • Restores Previous Sequestration Reductions *

15. FY14 Omnibus Bill(Expand and Accelerate R2O - $14.8M) 5-Year Goals/Strategy • Improve Forecast Guidance By Building the Next Generation Global Prediction System • Build a Robust “Catchers Mitt” to Apply Research Advances to Operational Modeling Needs • Coordinated Community Technology Systems to Improve Effective Transition of Research into Operations • Expanded Developmental Testing Center to Facilitate Broad External Participation • Closely Coordinated Planning and Execution by Federal R&D Community Partners • Small Grants to Address Known Science Issues That Will Rapidly Improve Regional/Local Forecasts • Building the Next Generation Warning/Forecast Paradigm to Support Impact-Based Decision Support Services *

16. FY14 Omnibus Bill(Expand and Accelerate R2O - $14.8M) • Major Components • Model Improvmeents • CSTAR • Travel (Professional Conferences) • Training • Testbed Experiments (Field Participation of Spring, Winter Wx, Flash Flood experiments) • Test Bed Proving Ground • Storm surge (ET surge, incl. social science) • Next generation warning/forecast paradigm • Verification • Fire Wx *

17. FY13 Accomplishments • Excellent Performance During Extreme Events: Hurricane Sandy; May Tornado Outbreaks; January Arctic Outbreak • SANDY SUPPLEMENTAL!! • Implemented New Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputer System • Implemented Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model Upgrade (Includes Hybrid 3DVAR Data Assimilation Scheme and Tail Doppler Radar Data from NOAA P-3 Aircraft) • Implemented New Operational Satellite Datasets to Global Data Assimilation System (CrIS, METOP-B AMSU-A/MHS/GRAS and SEVIRI from Meteosat-10) *

18. FY13 Accomplishments • HPC Name Change to Weather Prediction Center (WPC) • Generated Full Suite of WPC Medium-Range Products Twice Per Day • Began Issuing QPF Forecasts Year Round for Days 6/7 – Every Six Hours • SPC Began issuing New Fire Weather Outlook Products • AWC Certified as ISO Compliant for Quality Management Systems • Conducted First Ever Aviation Winter Weather Experiment • Hosted and Trained 24 Visiting Scientists at International Desks • Participated in Key Outreach Events: Space Wx Week/National Severe Weather Workshop *

19. FY14: A Look Ahead • Continue Sandy Supplemental Projects • Begin to Get Healthy – Promising Omnibus Bill • Fill Critical Vacancies • Restore Training/Travel/Equipment Sequestration Reductions • Accelerate R2O • Award Contract and Deliver New Supercomputer (Phase 2) • Implement Operational Model Upgrades: GFS, HRRR, HWRF • Integrate NWS Field Participation into Test Bed Experiments (Winter Weather Experiment, HWT Spring Experiment, Flash Flood Experiment, Summer Aviation Experiment • Many Others (can be discussed in Center break-out sessions) *

20. Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations from January 2013 Report *

21. Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations from January 2013 Report *

22. Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations from January 2013 Report *

23. Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations from January 2013 Report *

24. Summary • Sandy Supplemental Will be A Game Changer • 2014/2015 Budget Outlook is Brighter • HQ Changes Will Impact NCEP (Budget Structure/Reorg) • New NCEP Leadership Committed to Continuing Relationship with UCACN – Advice and Guidance from Review Committee is Important to NCEP *

25. UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP (UCACN) Members • Allan Blumberg: Stevens Institute of Technology • Lance Bosart: State University of New York (NHC, WPC, SPC) • Gilbert Brunet: UKMet Office (EMC, OD) • Fred Carr (Co-Chair): University of Oklahoma (AWC, EMC, WPC, NHC, OS, SPC) • John Dutton: Prescient Weather (CPC, OD) • Jim Kinter (Co-Chair): COLA & George Mason University (CPC, EMC, NCO, OD, OPC, SWPC) • Bill Kuo: NCAR/DTC (EMC, OD) • Garry Lackmann: North Carolina State University (WPC, SPC) • Tsengdar Lee: NASA (NCO, EMC) • Len Pietrafesa: North Carolina State University (OPC, EMC, NHC) • Warren Qualley: Harris Corps. (AWC) • Karen Shelton-Mur: FAA (SWPC, AWC) • Steven Smith: Accuweather, Inc (NCO) • Steve Woodard: FEMA (NHC, SPC) *

26. NCEP Directors • Bill Lapenta – NCEP Director • Bill Lapenta – Acting EMC Director • Ben Kyger – NCO Director • Kevin McCarthy – Acting WPC Director • Ming Ji – OPC Director • Mike Halpert – Acting CPC Director • Russ Schneider – SPC Director • Bob Maxson – AWC Director • Rick Knabb – NHC Director • Bill Lapenta – Acting SWPC Director • Brent Gordon – Acting SWPC Deputy Director *