Emission and fate of lead in the European environment, 1958-1995

1. Emission and fate of lead in the European environment, 1958-1995 Hans von Storch Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht 4. December 2012 - Case Studies in Environmental Chemistry, KemiskInstitut, KøbenhavnUniversitet

2. Hans von Storch Klimaforsker Speciale: kystklima, dvs storme, stormfloder, bølger, Vesterhavet, Østersøen, Nordatlanten Kooperation også med socialvidenskabsfolk Direktør af Institut for Kystforskning ved Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Medlem af KlimaCampus „CliSAP“ Hamburg

3. AnonymtsurveymedTurningTechnology Jeg vil genere høre hvad I sznes om aktuelle spørgsmål vedrørende klima forsckning of klimapolitik Hver får sådan en afstemmingsdims I skal ikke tænde dimsen. Når I ænsker at afstemme, bare trykker den apssende nummer. Hvis du ikke ønsker at deltage, lad være. Når afstemmningen er færdige, vil resultatet vises på skærmen Det er en anonym afstellning. Det er ikke mulitgt at finde ud hvem har afstemt hvordan – vi ved ikke hvem har brugt hvilket dims.

4. Inforstået med Undersøgelsen? • Jo • Nej • Ligeglad.

5. Menneskeskabt Klimaforandringer? • Jeg er overbevist om, at vi i øjeblikket oplever primært menneskeskabte klimaforandringer. • Jeg har alvorlige tvivl om, at vi har at gøre med primært menneskeskabte klimaforandringer. • Ingen udtalelse.

6. Energipolitik • Jeg støtter energipolitikken som sænker grug af olie og kul med mindst x % indtil 2030 (Hedegaard planen) • Jeg finde sødan en plan umodne og forbundet med for høje omkostninger. • Jeg sznes ikke, at den videnskaelige vides kan legitimere sådan en energipolitik. • Jeg foretrækker en anden klimapolitik, f.x., tilpassning, kortvarig justering efter behov eller geoengineering • Ingen udtalelse

7. Extreme vejrhændelser • Jeg opfatter i det sidste årti enf forstærkning af regionale stormbegivenheder. • Vores storme har altid været farligt, men en systematisk ændring i retning af mere eller kraftigere storme kan jeg ikke afgøre. • Ingen udltalese.

8. Videnskabensrolle • Videnskaben bør gøre politiske anbefalinger til at håndtere problemer, hvis første tegn er synlige, at der er et alvorligt problem. • Videnskaben bør gøre politiske anbefalinger til at håndtere problemer, hvis en konsensus er lavet i videnskaben om emnet. • Videnskaben bør ikke være nogen anbefalinger, men kun beskrive problemet og mulige løsningsstrategier. • Ingen udtalelse

9. Om bly I miliøet • Det var et problem. • Der var og stadigvæk er et problem. • Ved ikke.

10. Miljøbelastning med anthropogene stoffer Eksempel „bly“, emissioner og deponering i Europa, 1958- 1995 Hans von StorchInstitut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum Kemisk Institut, København, 29.April 2004

11. Motivation • Prototypical example of a reconstructing of flow and deposition of anthropogenic matter on the regional scale (50 - 1000 km). • Lead is chosen because the substance is during its aerial transport almost inert – that is, the problem is technically less challenging than with, say, mercury or POPs. • Lead is also chosen because of the highly variable emissions, with an unabated increase until about 1970 and several political regulations in the 1970s and 1980s, which ended with the out-phasing of lead in gasoline.

12. Lead emission Total gasoline sale Consumption of gasoline in Germany (mio.litres) and associated lead emissions (tons) Political regulation in 1971, 1975 and 1985.

13. Overview • General analysis of lead pollution • Accumulation in eco-systems and humans • Reconstructed emissions • Simulation of transport and deposition of emitted lead, 1958-1997 • Conclusions

14. ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS OF LEAD IN EUROPE 1955–1990 Petersen (1998)

16. Costa-Cabral, 2001 Sources of lead emissions, 1955-1995

18. General overview of lead pollution Hagner, C., 2000: European Regulations for Reducing Lead Emissions from Automobiles - Did they have an Economic Impact on the German Gasoline and Automobile Markets? Regional Environmental Change 1: 135-152

19. Atmospheric Lead Concentration in German Urban and Rural Areas 1970-1989 Source: Umweltbundesamt 2001

20. Atmospheric Lead Concentrations in German Conurbation and Rural Areas 1986 –1995 Data source: Pb – monitoring of the German Environmental Ministry (1998) and Landesamt Nordrhein –Westfalen(1998).

21. Accumulation in eco-systems and man • Hagner, C., 2000: Regional and long-term patterns of lead concentrations influvial, marine and terrestrial systems and humans in Europe. Water, Soil and Air Pollution, in press.

22. Blood-lead levels (mg/l) from various studies in Germany, 1979–1997 Data source: Heinzow 1998

23. Lead concentrations (mg/g) in spruce (Picea abies) sprouts and poplar (Populus nigra) leaves in urban areas in Saarland, 1985-1996 Data source: Umweltprobenbank 1999b

24. Lead concentration in annual beech leaves in German forest areas 1989-1997 Data source: Umweltprobenbank, Research Center Karlsruhe, 1999

25. Lead concentration (mg/kg) in Blue Mussels (Mytilus Edulis) in the North Sea, 1982-1997 * Sample stations: Bantsbalje ( 53°34’/ 7°01’); Borkum ( 53°35.4’/ 6°47.84’); Cuxhaven Leitdamm ( 53°53.05’/ 8°41.03’); Elmshörn Rinne ( 53°29.05’/ 6°54.00’); Mellumbalje ( 53°41.09’/ 8 °08.08’) Data source: Ministry of Ecology of Niedersachsen 1999

26. muscles livers Lead concentrations in muscles and livers of Breams.

27. Space/time details of Emissions Pacyna, J.M., and E.G. Pacyna, 2000: Atmospheric emissions of anthropogenic lead in Europe: Improvements, updates, historical data and projections. GKSS report 2000/31.

28. European Gasoline Lead Content Regulations • Initial Regulations • Germany • – 1971, the ”German Environmental Programm” was passed • Increasing automobile emissions were considered to be a latent danger for humans, animals and plants • – 1972, legal max. lead content of gasoline: 0.4 g Pb/l • – 1976, legal max. lead content of gasoline: 0.15 g Pb/l • European Union • – 1978, the first EU-regulation of lead in gasoline was adopted: • – Gasoline with more than 0.4 g Pb/l was banned on EU-markets • Further Regulations • Germany • – 1984, unleaded gasoline was introduced on the German market, complemented by tax incentives • – Justified by widespread damage to forests due to NOx, CO and CxHy • – 1988, low-emission cars become obligatory • European Union • – 1989, obligation to offer super-unleaded gasoline in all member states • – lead in gasoline should be reduced to max. 0.15 g Pb/l

29. Annual Lead Emissions in Different EU–Nations 1980 –1996 Data source: German Environmental Ministry ,1998

30. 1955 1965 Emissions

31. 1975 1985 Emissions

32. 1990 1995 Emissions

33. Simulation of Transport and Deposition of Emitted Lead, 1958-1995 Costa-Cabral, M. C., TUBES: An exact solution to advective transport of trace species in a two-dimensional discretized flow field using flow tubes, submitted

34. Atmospheric concentration

35. 1995 Calculated depositions deposition

36. Validation

37. Mean annual Pb air concentration at Schauinsland, Germany.

40. Analysis

41. model estimate

42. Chemical / ecological dimension

45. Overland transport Schulte-Rentrop, A., M.Costa-Cabral, R. Vink, 2005: Modelling the overland transport of lead deposited from the atmosphere in the elbe catchment over four decades (1958-1995), Water , Air and Soil Pollution, Vol. 160, 1-4, pp.271-291

47. Estimated deposition of lead in the Elbe catchment

48. total Direct deposition erosion runoff Flux of lead into the Elbe, 1958-1997

49. Change from 1958-1995 Estimated lead concentration in the soil

50. Lead concentration in the Elbe water