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Just-in-Time Lecture Pakistan Earthquake 8 October 2005

www.pitt.edu/~super/. Just-in-Time Lecture Pakistan Earthquake 8 October 2005. Ardalan A, Kazmi Kh, LaPorte RE, Holakouie Naieni K, Dodani S, Pourmalek F, Shubnikov E, Linkov F, Russel M, & Noji EK. Mission Statement:

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Just-in-Time Lecture Pakistan Earthquake 8 October 2005

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  1. www.pitt.edu/~super/ Just-in-Time Lecture Pakistan Earthquake 8 October 2005 Ardalan A, Kazmi Kh, LaPorte RE, Holakouie Naieni K, Dodani S, Pourmalek F, Shubnikov E, Linkov F, Russel M, & Noji EK

  2. Mission Statement: The Global Health Network Disaster, Network for Earthquake is designed to translate the best possible scholarly information from leading researchers to educators worldwide.

  3. What is the Disaster Supercourse? http://www.pitt.edu/~super1

  4. What is a JIT lecture? http://www.pitt.edu/~super1

  5. Lecture objectives: • To provide the best possible scientific information about the Pakistan earthquake of 8 Oct 2005 • To teach how the science can help prepare for primary & secondary prevention of consequences of Pakistan earthquake, 8 Oct 2005

  6. What is the earthquake? The shaking of earth caused by waves moving on and below the earth's surface and causing: surface faulting, tremors vibration, liquefaction, landslides, aftershocks and/or tsunamis

  7. How the earthquake happens? • It caused by a sudden slip on a FAULT. • Stresses in the earth's outer layer push sides of fault together. • Stress builds up & rocks slips suddenly, releasing energy in waves that travel through the earth's CRUST & cause the shaking that we Feel during an earthquake.

  8. Earthquake Strength Measures I) Magnitude & II) Intensity I) Magnitude: • Definition:A measure of actual physical energy release at its source as estimated from instrumental observations. • Scale:Richter Scale • By Charles Richter, 1936 • Open-ended scale • The oldest & most widely used Noji 1997

  9. Earthquake Strength Measures I) Magnitude & II) Intensity II) Intensity: • Definition:a measure of the felt or perceived effects of an earthquake rather than the strength of the earthquake itself. • Scale:Modified Mercalli (MM) scale • 12-point scale, ranges from barelyperceptible earthquakes at MM I to near total destruction at MM XII

  10. Magnitude versus Intensity • Magnitude refers to the force of the earthquake as a whole, while intensity refers to the effects of an earthquake at a particular site. • An earthquake can have just one magnitude, while intensity is usually strongest close to the epicenter & is weaker the farther a site is from the epicenter. • The intensity of an earthquake is more germane to its public health consequences than its magnitude.

  11. Northward movement of the Indian subcontinent (40 mm/yr = 1.6 inches/yr) + Colliding with the Eurasian continent Earthquakes & active faults in Northern Pakistan & adjacent parts of India & Afghanistan USGS

  12. Seismicity of Pakistan • Concentrated in N and W of the country, along the boundary of the Indian plate & the Iranian & Afghan micro-plates • Thrust zones: • Kirthar • Sulaiman • Salt ranges • 4 faults in & around Karachi

  13. Peak Ground Acceleration (m/s2) Based on Expected Ground Acceleration, Pakistan is divided into 4 earthquake hazard zones.

  14. Seismicity of Jammu & Kashmir Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005: One of the strongest earthquakes in the area since a mammoth M7.6 in Sep 1555 with max density XII in Kashmir (Jammu & Kashmir) and India

  15. History of earthquakes in Pakistan, 1980-2004

  16. Largest earthquake in Pakistan ! • Date: 30 May 1935 • Location:Quetta / Balouchistan • Magnitude: 8.1 on the Richter scale • Time: 19:00:46.9 UTC • Epicentre: 27.39N, 88.75E • Depth: 17 Kms • Death: 30,000

  17. Pakistan’s Health Statistics: • Total population: 153,578,000 • GDP per capita (Intl $, 2002): 1,920 • Life expectancy at birth m/f (years): 62,0/62,0 • Healthy life expectancy at birth m/f (years, 2002): 54,2/52,3

  18. Pakistan’s Health Statistics: • Child mortality m/f (per 1000): 98/108 • Adult mortality m/f (per 1000): 225/199 • Total health expenditure per capita (Intl $, 2002): 62 • Total health expenditure as % of GDP (2002): 3,2

  19. Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005: • Geolocation: 34.402°N, 73.560°E • Region: Pakistani controlled Jammu & Kashmir at N of Pakistan & Punjab & Himachal Pradesh at N of India. • Countries affected: Pakistan, India, Afghanistan • Affected area: Forest-clad mountains

  20. Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005: • Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles) • Epicentre Distances from Islamabad: 90 Km NNE

  21. Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005: • Magnitude: 7.6 on the Richter scale (USGS) 7.8 on the Richter scale (JMA) • Classification: Major • Aftershock:~ 200 from 5.4 – 6.2 • Date: Saturday 8 Oct 2005 • Time: 8:50 AM at the local time

  22. Pakistan Earthquake Impacts • Death toll: ~ 50,000 • Injured: ~ 70,000 • Affected population: • Severely: 3.027.900 • Marginally: 5.260.183 • Displaced/homeless: • 3.3 million

  23. Balakot area: • The worst hit area • 20,000 causalities • 90% buildings destruction • 100% homeless • Muzaffarabad: • 80% destroyed • City of Bagh: • Totally destroyed Main affected areas

  24. Damage to health infrastructure: • Destruction of: • 26 hospitals • 3 Tuberculosis hospitals • > 600 PHC centres

  25. When disaster strikes, years of development can be wiped out in seconds The United Nations flash appeal for Pakistan to cover the relief needs for a 6 months emergency phase: US$ 312 million

  26. Relief operation obstacles: • Huge numbers of injured • Helicopters as the only means to get to cut-off villages • Logistical challenges • Rapidly deteriorating weather conditions • Continuous rains at nights • Blocking roads by landslides • Heavy clouds

  27. Critical needs of the affected population: • Winterised shelter up to 600,000 (based on 3 million needing shelter, 5 persons per family) • Medical services • Water & sanitation • Nutrition • Reaching populations in villages

  28. Health needs & concerns: • Cold temperature (<0) & hypothermia • Lack of sanitation facilities • Lack of adequate & safe drinking water • Need to water purification plants & Water tanks • Need to latrines • Problem of sanitary disposal of excreta and • Basic hygiene • Inadequate food • Unaccompanied, separated, orphaned children • Risk of diarrhoeal illnesses, pulmonary diseases & non-treatment of injured and infected open fractures & gangrenes

  29. Dead bodies do not lead to epidemics, but the bad odour is always a problem, as it is true in Pakistan and was in Bam. Solution: Spraying campaigns with chlorine

  30. A major problem in efficient service delivery to really affected people: • Increasing number of people moving into Balakot from outlying villages seeking assistance!

  31. Bam earthquake lessons learned: • We should focus on: • Incident Command System (ICS) • Inter and Intra sectoral Coordination • Emergency Health Information System (EHIS)

  32. Public Health Consequences of Earthquakes Pease see the following lectures: Part I. http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13021/index.htm Part II. http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13051/index.htm

  33. Time of Pakistan earthquake,8 Oct 2005: • Around 9 AM on Saturday & most students were at schools when the earthquake struck !!

  34. Epidemiology of fear: • I feel we need to reach out first, are schools all over Pakistan but particularly in cities like Lahore and Islamabad who experienced earthquake but fortunately escaped with out major damage. These young minds are also affected by the stories of hundreds of young students who have lost their lives in other areas.  Dr. Khawar Kazmi

  35. People need information as much as water, food, medicine or shelter. • Information can save lives, livelihoods & resources. • Lack of information can make people victims of disaster. World Disaster Report 2005 – IFRC/RCS

  36. Just-in-Time Education: Let’s teach the school children right now !

  37. Average Disaster Per Year in Pakistan UNDP

  38. Proportion of People Killed per Type of Disaster (1980-2000) % UNDP

  39. Comparison of Proportion of People Killed following Earthquakes between Pakistan & other countries (1980-2000) % UNDP

  40. Comparison of 10-year death in Pakistan between Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) & Earthquakes 30 times more death due to CVDs than earthquakes

  41. Earthquake Nature: • Almost unpredictable disaster • No early warning • No scientific prediction technology But we can protect ourselves & minimize the damage to our homes, schools & work places.

  42. What we should do/do not before, during & after the earthquake? Please read carefully at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/faq/prepare.html

  43. References

  44. We wish to express our warm thanks to GDHNet faculties and all groups that contributed their valuable materials.

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