johnthescone

1. Technologies of Climate Change Mitigation Climate Parliament Forum, May 26, 2011Prof. Dr. Thomas Bruckner Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management (IIRM)University of Leipzig, Germany The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) johnthescone

2. Renewable Energies in the 4th Assessment Report Volume III of the IPCC AR4 comprises 850 pages; only 8 pages are explicitly devoted to renewable energies (RE).

3. The IPCC SRREN The IPCC Panel approved the development of the IPCC SRRENat its 28th Session, held in Budapest on April 9-10, 2008.

4. The IPCC SRREN The Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) was approved on May 9, 2011.The electronic version of the entire report will be published on May 31, 2011.

5. Current share of RE in the primary energy supply The current global energy system is fossil fuel dominated.

6. Recent increase of RE in the primary energy supply RE show a rapid growth in the provision of primary energy supply. 150 GW of new RE power plant capacity was built in 2008-2009. This equals approximately 50% of all power plants built during that period.

7. RE and climate change mitigation Climate stabilization goal Share of renewable energies in the provision of primary energy supply CO2 concentration limit • Selection of a portfolio based on: • Economic competition • Environmental impacts • Security aspects • Societal aspects Carbon budget (limit on cumulative emissions) CO2-emissions trajectory Freely emitting fossil fuels Zero- or low-carbon energies: RE, nuclear, CCS Energy efficiency “Scale”: Energy services and resulting energy needs

8. RE and climate change mitigation Source: IPCC, AR4, Synthesis Report, p. 20

9. RE and climate change mitigation

10. Global RE primary energy supply from 164 long-term scenarios versus fossil and industrial CO2 emissions. RE and climate change mitigation

11. RE deployment increases in scenarios with lower greenhouse gas concentration stabilization levels. RE and climate change mitigation

12. Technical potential The global technical potential of RE sources will not limit continued growth in the use of RE.

13. Current costs The levelized cost of energy for many RE technologies is currently higher than existing energy prices, though in various settings RE is already economically competitive.

14. Current costs

15. RE costs have declined in the past and further declines can be expected in the future. Historic cost trends

16. Integration characteristics of RE technologies As infrastructure and energy systems develop, in spite of the complexities, there are few, if any, fundamental technological limits to integrating a portfolio of RE technologies to meet a majority share of total energy demand in locations where suitable RE resources exist or can be supplied.

17. Lifecycle GHG emissions of RE technologies

18. Lifecycle GHG emissions of RE technologies

19. Direct GHG emissions from modern bioenergy chains (excluding land use change effects) • The sustainability of bioenergy, in particular in terms of life cycle GHG emissions, is influenced by land and biomass resource management practices. • The greenhouse gas balance of biofuels can be affected by direct and indirect land-use changes. • Proper governance of land use, zoning, and choice of biomass production systems are key challenges for policy makers.

20. RE and sustainable development • Economic development: Historically, economic development has been strongly correlated with increasing energy use and growth of GHG emissions. RE can help decouple that correlation, contributing to sustainable development (SD). • Energy access: RE can accelerate access to energy, particularly for the 1.4 billion people without access to electricity and the additional 1.3 billion people using traditional biomass. • Energy security: RE deployment can reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions and market volatility. • Accident risks: In general, renewable energy technologies have low fatality rates. • Co-benefits (environmental and health benefits): Maximizing these benefits depends on the specific technology, management, and site characteristics associated with each RE project.

21. RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies2004 Policy support and enabling conditions

22. RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies 2011 Policy support and enabling conditions

23. Policy support for RE • An increasing number and variety of RE policies have promoted an increase in RE capacity installations, especially, by helping to overcome various barriers. • Public R&D investments are most effective when complemented by other policy instruments, particularly deployment policies that simultaneously enhance demand for new technologies. • Some policies have been shown to be effective and efficient in rapidly increasing RE deployment. However, there is no one-size-fits-all policy. • In addition to GHG pricing policies (e.g., emission trading), RE specific policies may be appropriate from an economic point of view if opportunities for technological development are to be addressed (or if other goals beyond climate mitigation are pursued). • ‘Enabling’ policies support RE development and deployment.

24. Mitigation costs

25. Contact: Prof. Dr. Thomas Bruckner Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management (IIRM)University of Leipzig, Germanybruckner@wifa.uni-leipzig.dehttp://www.uni-leipzig.de/energiemanagement/ The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) johnthescone

26. RE and climate change mitigation Source: IPCC, AR4, Synthesis Report, p. 20

27. Historic and prospective use of fossil fuels Potential emissions from remaining fossil resources could result in GHG concentration levels far above 600ppm.

28. … for instance growth in size of typical commercial wind turbines. Future technological trends