Can Any Theory of Intelligent Design be A True Scientific Theory?

1. Can Any Theory of Intelligent Design be A True Scientific Theory? Sean D. Pitman, M.D. April 2006 www.DetectingDesign.com

2. Both Could Have Been Deliberately Designed Only One Had to Have Been Deliberately Designed

3. The Scientific Method • Make an observation • Use that observation to make a falsifiable prediction as to what will happen in the future • Test the prediction to see if it successfully avoids falsification • If the prediction avoids falsification, the hypothesis gains predictive value • It is more likely that this prediction will continue to hold true with more testing • If the prediction fails, the hypothesis must be either modified or discarded completely in favor of a new hypothesis

4. Karl Popper, one of the most influential philosophers of the 20th century: “Any hypothesis that does not make falsifiable predictions is simply not science. Such a hypothesis may be useful or valuable, but it cannot be said to be science.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy_of_science

5. Popper began considering the importance of falsification in science after attending a lecture by Einstein • Noticed that Einstein’s theories were much different than those of Marx or Freud • Einstein Theories were extremely risky while those of Marx and Freud were not in that they “explain too much”, often with completely opposing explanations for observations that could not be decisively disproved

6. Non-Scientific Prediction? • Observation: Dinosaurs and Birds share several features • Hypothesis: Dinosaurs and Birds have a common ancestor • Prediction: A link between dinosaurs and birds will be found sharing additional features – like a feathered dinosaur • This prediction is not falsifiable, it is only verifiable • If feathered dinosaurs are never found, the hypothesis still isn’t falsified • It therefore does not meet Popper’s criteria as a true scientific prediction – however useful it may be

7. A Scientific Prediction? • While in Las Vegas I observe that I roll double sixes every time after I scratched my nose . . . 3 times so far! • Through inductive reasoning, I hypothesize that scratching my nose causes me to roll double sixes • I therefore predict that every time I scratch my nose I will roll double sixes • If I continue to roll double sixes after scratching my nose, my hypothesis gains predictive value • If I end up rolling anything else after scratching my nose, just once, my hypothesis looses predictive value

8. Designed Things • Do things of known design have any predictable characteristics that can be used to predict design when such characteristic are found in other things?

9. Everything and Nothing • It is a common saying among many evolutionists that ID explains everything and therefore nothing • Is this “true”? Can ID explain everything? • Can anyone name anything that could not be deliberately formed given enough knowledge, power and creativity? • If ID can explain everything, does this mean it explains nothing?

10. ID Explains Nothing? • ID does seem to be able to explain everything • ID is “limited” in explanatory power only by the limits of the proposed designer • Mindless “Nature” is used to explain everything as well – and therefore nothing? • If ID and non-deliberate natural processes are both equally limitless in potential creative ability, how can one tell the difference? • One or the other must be limited in the ability to produce certain characteristics over a certain span of time

11. Non-Deliberate Forces • Which one is more limited, intelligent or non-intelligent activity – given access to the same amount of energy, basic building blocks and time? • Oh, but given enough time, can’t non-deliberate forces do everything that highly intelligent forces can do? • Sure, but how much time do you have?

12.      “Time is the hero of the plot. The time with which we have to deal is of the order of two billion years... Given so much time the 'impossible' becomes possible, the possible probable, and the probable virtually certain. One has only to wait: time itself performs miracles.” • George Wald (1967 Nobel Prize winner in Medicine), "The Origin of Life," Scientific American, vol. 191 1954, p. 46; reprinted on p. 307-320, A Treasury of Science, Fourth Revised Edition, Harlow Shapley et al., eds., Harper and Brothers Publishers, 1958. p 309.

13. Deliberate or non-deliberate?

15. Non-deliberate?

18. What Limits Non-Deliberate Processes? • All known non-deliberate processes interact in an apparently “random” way when it comes to certain features of certain materials • Apparently random or chaotic activity has a certain fairly predictable “look” • Can’t predict heads or tails of a particular coin toss better than 50/50, but I can predict that the ratio will almost certainly be 50%H/50%T after 1 million tosses – if the tossing is truly “random”

19. Kolmogorov/Chaitin “Complexity” "Although randomness can be precisely defined and can even be measured, a given number cannot be proved to be random. This enigma establishes a limit to what is possible in mathematics." – Gregory Chaitin, Scientific American, 1975

20. A non-random process, like ID or Pi, can produce non-random and random-looking “looks” • A truly random process, coin tossing, can also produce non-random and random-looking “looks” • Given enough time it is possible for a million monkeys typing away at random to produce all the works of Shakespeare • What good are the concepts of “random” and “non-random” processes if there is no detectable difference between what one can do vs. what the other can do? • Some things just seem so “intuitively” random while other things seem so non-random • Is there a detectable difference?

21. Gregory Chaitin Explains “Almost everyone has an intuitive notion of what a random number is. For example, consider these two series of binary digits: 01010101010101010101 01101100110111100010

22. 01010101010101010101 “The first is obviously constructed according to a simple rule; it consists of the number 01 repeated ten times. If one were asked to speculate on how the series might continue, one could predict with considerable confidence that the next two digits would be 0 and 1. Inspection of the second series of digits yields no such comprehensive pattern. There is no obvious rule governing the formation of the number, and there is no rational way to guess the succeeding digits. The arrangement seems haphazard; in other words, the sequence appears to be a random assortment of 0's and 1's.”

23. 01101100110111100010 “. . . The second series of binary digits was generated by flipping a coin 20 times and writing a 1 if the outcome was heads and a 0 if it was tails. Tossing a coin is a classical procedure for producing a random number, and one might think at first that the provenance of the series alone would certify that it is random. This is not so. Tossing a coin 20 times can produce any one of 220 (or a little more than a million) binary series [potential sequences in sequence space], and each of them has exactly the same probability. Thus it should be no more surprising to obtain the series with an obvious pattern than to obtain the one that seems to be random; each represents an event with a probability of 2−20.”

24. “If origin in a probabilistic event were made the sole criterion of randomness, then both series would have to be considered random, and indeed so would all others, since the same mechanism can generate all the possible series. This conclusion is singularly unhelpful in distinguishing the random from the orderly. A more sensible definition of randomness is required, one that does not contradict the intuitive concept of a ‘patternless’ number.” Gregory J. Chaitin, Randomness and Mathematical Proof, Scientific American, 232, No. 5 (May 1975),  pp. 47-52

25. A Patternless Pattern • Patternlessness is based on the pattern itself without any regard to its actual origin • Patternlessness = Complexity (KCC) • KCC = Measure of Compressibility • Given the ability to recognize symmetry or repeating patterns, a sequence with greater internal symmetry has greater compressibility (Low KCC)

26. What about Pi? • 3.1415926535897932384626433832795 . . . . No simple, repeating patterns longer than 10 digits (out of 200 million digits) • Yet, this apparently infinite patternless sequence is very compressible/reproducible with a very simple formula of Pi • the ratio of the circumference to the diameter of a perfect circle

27. Patternlessness cannot be absolutely known this side of absolute knowledge • An unknown “compressor”, like Pi, may come along and compress a very long apparently random sequence into a very small expression or formula • Something with apparently high KCC in reality has a low KCC • So, what good is the concept of KCC?

28. Apparent Randomness or “Chaos” • Chaos Theory arose out of trying to predict the weather (Edward Lorenz) • It’s kinda like playing pool: Perfect knowledge of position, direction, velocity and several other features of each pool ball on a perfectly frictionless table would give exact predictability over time • Slightly non-perfect knowledge results in exponentially worse and worse predictability over time • i.e. The Butterfly Effect

30. Even a slight lack of knowledge of the starting parameters results in an appearance of randomness/non-compressibility or high KCC • The actual rules governing the starting parameters may have been very simple (low KCC) and very reproducible - if they could be perfectly known • Problem: certain apparently simple “formulas” cannot be known to perfection by us humans • i.e., the current starting points, velocities, and trajectories of all particles involved in next years weather patterns • Such things will therefore predictably produce an apparently “random” pattern with high KCC

31. The Predictable Random Look • Imagine a 10 x 10 meter very smooth/polished highly symmetrical granite cube • Now, imagine that it gets exposed to intense “natural” weathering for 10,000 years • What is it going to look like? • What are the odds that the resulting irregularities of one half will look identical to the other half? • Will the irregularities show any significant symmetry? – this side of repeating this experiment a near infinite number of times?

32. or Complex? Simple? What About “Random” Etchings?

33. Entropy and “Disorder” • Non-Deliberate processes tend toward “Complexity” and away from “Simplicity” – Right? • “Complexity”, in this common understanding of the word, actually means “Randomness” or “Chaos” • Greater “Complexity equals greater KCC, which equals greater Entropy (Algorithmic Entropy (AE)) • Like Thermodynamic Entropy (TE), AE heads toward its maximum value over time • Highly symmetrical irregularities have lower overall AE

34. From “Complex” to “Simple” • Mindless Nature can turn “Complex” to “Simple” • Some materials can turn apparently “random” forces into non-random highly ordered activities with very predictable outcomes • Crystals like quartz, salt, snowflakes, pyrite, etc. • Humans, dogs, cats, iguanas, trees, bacteria, etc. • Based on the pre-established internal “order” of the subparts of such systems

35. Where are the Limits? • If nature can create both complexity and simplicity, where are the “limits”? • It depends on the material in question • There are types of materials where all known non-deliberate forces have pretty much the same limitations when it comes to producing certain features – like symmetry • Granite, marble, flint, clay, French-style gardens etc.

36. When to “Stop Looking” • Science doesn’t demand 100% certainty • If all potential ways of falsification were ruled out completely, 100%, there would be no more need for science • Science is needed because of limited knowledge – A “gap” in knowledge • Science is an effort to determine the odds that a particular possibility is not filling the gap • What do statisticians do at Las Vegas? – You draw 4 Aces 10 times in one night, you’re never going back! • What if Schwarzenegger wins the CA Lottery 5 times in a row? – keep looking for a non-deliberate process?

37. Einstein: “A beautiful theory can always be destroyed by one ugly fact!” • Gaps will always be there, but the odds that a falsifiable hypothesis or theory is actually “wrong” become less and less with more and more testing that the limits are what they are • The odds that anything other than an intelligent agent can fill certain gaps, within a certain period of time or number of occurrences, can be statistically calculated • What are the odds that mindless Nature could produce a near perfect symmetrical polished 10 m granite cube with 3 different complex etchings identically reproduced on opposing faces this side of 1 trillion years? • 1 trillion to one? If true, should I keep looking for a “Natural” cause? – or accept ID as being most likely?

38. All scientists actually do accept the “truth” of their hypotheses well shy of 100% certainty . . . even when it comes to the notion of ID - Except if the ID hypothesis has something to do with the origin of life or different kinds of life.

39. James Gibson’s List of Seven Criticisms of ID Theory 1. Intelligent Design Inhibits Scientific Inquiry: • “Attributing a phenomenon to design is to remove motivation for further study, and/or to make it impossible to reach any conclusion because we cannot know the intentions of the designer” • How long does one have to look for a non-deliberate cause of a French-style garden or a similar highly symmetrical pattern drawn in the sands of Mars before one should loose the motivation for such a fruitless pursuit?

40. 2. Intelligent Design is a Sterile Idea • “Intelligent design does not provide any questions to explore scientifically, hence it is useless for science, whether true or not.” • Gibson argues: “Intelligent design may not be a hypothesis to test, but it may provide a ‘metaphysical research programme’ in which hypotheses may be generated and tested • Is this really true? – that ID cannot be based on any testable hypothesis?

41. If I hypothesize that all known non-deliberate forces have a limit with regard to a certain feature, like symmetry in gardens or granite, beyond which they cannot go this side of a practical eternity of time, what happens to my hypothesis if some non-deliberate apparently random force does happen to cross this line?

42. What if there is a “limit” to Natural Selection? • Gibson himself quotes Darwin: • “If it could be demonstrated that any complex organ existed [that] could not possibly have been formed by numerous successive, slight modifications, my theory would absolutely break down”. • Hypothetical: If such a demonstration could be done, what would be left besides ID as the most reasonable scientific explanation for such an organ system? • Is the “Mindless Nature Can Do It” Hypothesis falsifiable this side of a practical eternity? – or is it only “verifiable”?

43. 3. Intelligent Design is an Appeal from Ignorance • “Design is invoked when we don’t understand something. It is the same kind of argument as the ‘god-of-the-gaps’ argument of former ages. As science advances, our understanding will increase, and the number of mysteries will decrease. Thus, what appears as designed today will eventually be shown to be the result of chance and natural law.” • Science is based on a lack of perfect knowledge • It is science that is invoked when we don’t fully understand • The ID Theory is not based on a complete lack of evidence or knowledge, but on an extensive data base concerning the very similar limits of all known non-deliberate forces, with regard to certain features, like symmetry, acting on certain materials – like granite, gardens, and even biosystems (I’ll explain the biolimits shortly)

44. 4. Design is Religiously Motivated and Inappropriate in Science • Is the detection of design in forensic science religiously motivated? • How about SETI? • How about detecting cheaters in Las Vegas? • Are these sciences “Religions” just because they propose to detect design? • It seems to me like the “Religion Card” is played only when deliberate design is theorized as a valid origin for certain aspects of living things

45. 5. Any Designer Would Also Have to be Responsible for Evil • What about the creation of true “freedom”? • What about the possibility of multiple designers? • What about the possibility of a truly evil designer who indented to create just what we see around us? - as it is? • ID Theory only shows that design happened as a cause for certain aspects of certain things • ID Theory does not detect who or why or how

46. “Such a Wide Range of IDists” • Those who enter under the umbrella of Darwinian-style evolution are also just as wide ranging in their beliefs regarding “evolution” • The range of those who accept an idea is not evidence that is it ill-defined and therefore invalid as a good scientific idea

47. 6. Design is Superfluous Because Natural Selection is Adequate • “Natural selection is an adequate mechanism to explain the apparent design of living things. This has been demonstrated by computer analogies such as the Tierra program, in which computer images are subjected to a series of modifications and selection, resulting in unexpected complexity and creativity. Design is an unnecessary and untestable hypothesis.” • If natural selection were an adequate mechanism, ID would not be detectable in living things • Problem: Random mutation and natural selection only give rise to different systems that are at very low levels of Functional Complexity

48. Tierra evolution • Starts out with program codes that reproduce themselves • Gain reproductive advantages if they reproduce faster • Result: paracytic-type programs that are actually smaller than their original programs • These smaller programs leach off the functional aspects of larger programs • Because of this leaching effect, the population eventually stalls out and usually goes extinct • No higher-level systems of function evolve beyond what the population started with

49. Biosystem Evolution • A higher Level of functional complexity requires a greater minimum sequence size and specificity • Antibiotic Resistance (can evolve, basically unlimited) • Most forms require a loss or interference with a pre-established function (antibiotic-target interaction) • Much easier to break something than to make it again, because there are so many more ways to break than to fix • Nylonase: Minimum of ~ 300 AA (can evolve, limited) • Lactase: Minimum of ~ 400 AA (can evolve, limited) • Ratios in language systems: • cat – hat – bat – bad – dad – did – dig – dog • Try it with longer sequences – gets exponentially harder and harder to do because of an exponential decline in the ratio of potentially beneficial vs. potentially non-beneficial • Odds that a large book will have the sequence “cat” preformed somewhere? – what about supracalafragalisticexpialedocious?

50. Higher level biosystems • Flagellar Motility system: > 10,000 AA (>30,000 bp of genetic real estate) • Evolution never makes it past systems with a minimum requirement of more than a few hundred fairly specified AA ( < 3,000 bp of genetic real estate ) • A system requiring a minimum of just 4 or 5 K bp of genetic real estate would require literally trillions upon trillions of years to evolve – on average • A God-of-the-Gaps argument? – Certainly! • What else besides a very high level of ID could fill such a gap with an average time less than trillions upon trillions of years?