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INCOME INVESTING IN A GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS

INCOME INVESTING IN A GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS. ROGER S. CONRAD AAII WASHINGTON 2012. WHERE WE STAND. INVEST FOR 2012, NOT 1932 NO INFLATION US ECONOMY GROWING SLOWLY SENTIMENT BETTER BUT SKITTISH STRONG WILL SURGE, WEAK WILL STUMBLE. CHEAP MONEY. STOCKS FIRST. ONLY LIVABLE YIELDS

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INCOME INVESTING IN A GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS

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  1. INCOME INVESTING IN A GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS ROGER S. CONRAD AAII WASHINGTON 2012

  2. WHERE WE STAND • INVEST FOR 2012, NOT 1932 • NO INFLATION • US ECONOMY GROWING SLOWLY • SENTIMENT BETTER BUT SKITTISH • STRONG WILL SURGE, WEAK WILL STUMBLE

  3. CHEAP MONEY

  4. STOCKS FIRST • ONLY LIVABLE YIELDS • DIVIDEND GROWTH ACCELERATES • CONSERVATIVE IS COOL • DIVERSIFICATION AND BALANCE OFFSET RISKS • MUST LIVE WITH VOLATILITY

  5. ECONOMIC SENSITIVE • NOT FOLLOWING INTEREST RATES • RE-PRICING RISK TO DIVIDENDS • RALLY BEGAN IN OCTOBER: NOT EVERYTHING IS A BARGAIN NOW • WATCH REVENUE RELIABILITY, NEAR-TERM DEBT

  6. HOW THEY RATE • BUY THE BUSINESS • PAYOUT RATIO: WHAT IS PROFIT? • DEBT: WHAT’S COMING DUE? • REVENUE: RELIABLE AND TRANSPARENT • VALUE AT PRICE

  7. WHERE THE BUYS ARE • UTILITY BEDROCK • MLPS: PROFIT IN PIPES • HIGH YIELD COMMUNICATIONS • CONSERVATIVE CANADA • BARGAINS DOWN UNDER • BIG YIELD HUNTING

  8. MLP PROFITS • ,MASSIVE DEMAND FOR SHALE • A LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE • CHEAP CAPITAL • INVESTMENT = DIVIDEND GROWTH • BEST: GEL, ETP, BPL, NS • WATCH THE PRICE: EPD, KMP • A WORD ON TAXES

  9. UTILITY BEDROCK • CAPITAL SPENDING + REGULATORY SUPPORT = HIGHER PROFITS, DIVIDENDS, SHARE PRICES • BEST: EXC, D, WTR • KEY RISK: WATCH THE REGULATORS

  10. THE DATA EXPLOSION

  11. BETTING ON CONNECTIVITY • GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY BOOM • BIG PLAYERS BENEFIT MOST • HIGH YIELDS ABOUND • T, VZ, WIN • KEY RISK: TRANSITION FROM 20TH CENTURY WIRES

  12. CANADIAN YIELDS • LEGACY OF INCOME TRUSTS = THE DISCIPLINE OF DIVIDENDS • SOLID COUNTRY/SOLID CURRENCY • RETURN TO DIVIDEND GROWTH • COMING TO NEW YORK • AT, JE, STB, PWE • PBNPF, BRPFF

  13. BARGAINS DOWN UNDER • SOLID COUNTRY/SOLID CURRENCY • DIVIDEND FRIENDLY/RESOURCE RICH • APA (APAJF), TLS (TLSYY) • A WORD ON FOREIGN DIVIDEND TAXES

  14. BIG YIELD HUNTING • RISK PERCEPTION DRIVES PRICE • RISK CAN BE OVER-PRICED • BARGAINS BEST WHEN GLOOM IS GREATEST • TEF, NMM

  15. AVOIDING BLOWUPS • AVOID CARRIED INTEREST MLPS, LONG MATURITIES, BLACK BOXES • KEEP UP WITH YOUR COMPANIES • LEAVE EMOTION OUT OF IT: NO POLITICS, NO AVERAGING DOWN, NO STOPS • CUT LOSSES

  16. FOR MORE INFORMATION • www.utilityforecaster.com • www.canadianedge.com • www.mlpprofits.com • www.australianedge.com • www.pfnewsletter.com • www.RogConrad.com • hoodie, fever

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