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PI: Mojib Latif With contribution from: Wonsun Park, Thomas Martin , Fritz Krüger , Jin Ba

The AMOC in the Kiel Climate Model WP 3.1 Suitability of the ocean observation system components for initialization. PI: Mojib Latif With contribution from: Wonsun Park, Thomas Martin , Fritz Krüger , Jin Ba. NACLIM Kickoff Meeting 5- 9 November, 2012. Motivation.

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PI: Mojib Latif With contribution from: Wonsun Park, Thomas Martin , Fritz Krüger , Jin Ba

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  1. The AMOC in the Kiel Climate ModelWP 3.1 Suitability of the ocean observation system components for initialization PI: Mojib Latif With contribution from: Wonsun Park, Thomas Martin, Fritz Krüger, Jin Ba NACLIM Kickoff Meeting 5- 9 November, 2012

  2. Motivation • Modes of variability / time scales and forcing • Dynamics of the multi-decadal mode • Predictability and initialization • Observation

  3. AMOC: RAPID array (26.5°N) http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk Transport timeseries obtained from the first 3.5 years of observations at 26.5°N. The different curves show the MOC (red line) and its constituents, i.e. the transport through the Florida Straits (blue line), the Ekman transport (black line), and the density driven transport obtained from the mooring data (pink line). The transport units are Sverdrups (Sv, 1Sv = 106m3s-1). The mean and standard deviations for the different transports are 18.5 ±4.9Sv (MOC), 31.7 ±2.8Sv (Florida Straits), 3.5 ±3.4Sv (Ekman), and -16.6 ±3.2Sv (transport from mooring densities).

  4. Natural variability in Kiel Climate Model(4200 year control simulation) Park and Latif 2012

  5. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Kiel Climate Model Park and Latif 2008

  6. Three time scales: MCV (300-400a), QCV (~100a), MDV (~60a) Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) Park and Latif 2012

  7. Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (~60a) SST: (POP1:42% PDV; POP2: 20% AMV) NH SST [°C] Principal Oscillation Pattern: … -> Preal -> -Pimag -> -Preal -> Pimag -> … Park and Latif 2010

  8. Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (~60a) (regression patterns) SST SLP SSH Park and Latif 2010

  9. Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (~60a) (regression patterns) SST SLP SSH Park and Latif 2010

  10. AMV and AMOC Ba et al. submitted 60yr

  11. Salinity leads the AMOC Ba et al. submitted

  12. Restored Salinity: variability goes down Ba et al. submitted

  13. State-of-the-art ocean observing system http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/About_Argo.html

  14. Satellite data SMOS SSH -Trend SSH: Regional trends Derived from multi-missions Ssalto/Duacs Period:1992-2010 ICDC, ZMAW; Germany

  15. Scientific work plan • Perfect model approach • Initialization: sampling according to existing ocean observing system components • Hindcasts with reduced set of initial conditions • Quantification contribution of different components of ocean observing system • Investigate potential observational needs to enhance decadal prediction • Comparison with other models (e.g. KCMwith MPI-ESM)

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