Economiccollapse

1. Economiccollapse Alejandresgannon UC Berkeley

2. Internal Links • What causes the economy to collapse matters for • The manner in which it collapse • The type of collapse • Topic internal links • US vs global economy • Jobs • Deficit spending/government debt • Specific industries • Technological development

3. Winning the impact

4. Winning the Impact • Desperate times call for desperate measures, economic collapse incentivizes wars and aggression • Opportunistic wars • Preventative wars • Rally around the flag effect • Resource wars • Strong economy means more trade and interdependence • Less of an incentive to wage war when living conditions are fine

5. Defeating the Impact • Magnitude of the internal link – what causes the economy to collapse determines the style, extent, and response to collapse • Historical examples of economic collapse • Global vs relative collapse • Resources and wars are expensive • Countries turn inwards • Recession causes integration • Turn the impact

6. Impact turn debate

7. Relevant factors for both sides • Sustainability • Now vs later • Transition wars • Ecology/environment • Possibility of long-term conflict or peace

8. Winning the impact turn • Key authors: • Ted Trainer • Chris Lewis • Glen Barry • Richard Duncan

9. 1. Sustainability • Collapse inevitable due to consumption patterns • China’s 8% growth rate and doubling every 9 years) • Collapse inevitable due to production patterns • Technology only get diminishing returns and not everything has substitutes

10. 2. Collapse now better • More we delay the harder we fall • Environment – collapse now allows it to bounce back • Mindset shift – collapse now trigger by consumption/production cycles causes shift a cultural norms for sustainable living

11. 3. Transition wars • Won’t happen because there aren’t any resources • Shift will be peaceful because pitted against globalization and industrialization • Current consumption patterns means people inclined to accept living on less and consuming less • Guns vs butter

12. 4. Ecology • Growth rewards environmental destruction, profit motive means being less concerned with the global commons • Encourages wasteful use of resources • 3rd world displacement • Technology can’t solve species extinction and so far as failed us against warming • Technology doesn’t change consumption patterns which is necessary in the long term

13. 5. Possibility of conflict • Decreases because countries turn inwards • Nuclear war won’t cause extinction but environmental collapse does

14. Defeating the impact turn

15. 1) Sustainability • Technology – poor economy draws entrepreneurs to think of solutions which makes ecologically sustainable living easier • Motivations – self-correcting factors change investor calculations because survival is profitable • Resources growing more abundant • Humans switch to more economically sustainable resources

16. 2) Collapse now worse • Collapse is not inevitable • Source or cause of collapse matters • Low consumption makes the collapse sever and that’s what’s happening with the current collapse • Lack of jobs means rally around the flag effect

17. 3) Transition wars • Countries lashout • Billions still die…and that’s bad • Short-term internal link turn to all their impacts

18. 4) Ecology • Environmental Kuznet’s Curve • Investment goes towards countries that have environmental regulations because poor countries are too preoccupied with survival

19. 5) Possibility of conflict • That’s above • Economic collapse causes wars and wars turn and outweigh environmental concerns