FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: October 31, 2008

1. FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title PageRevised: October 31, 2008 • Title: Aviation Weather Hazards • Project Type: Product Development • Status: Renewal • Duration: 2 year • Leads: • Ken Pryor (SMCD/OPDB)‏ • Other Participants: • Andrew Bailey (IMSG)‏

2. 2. Project Summary • Develop and evaluate potential new products or techniques, or improve existing products, derived from GOES to improve detection and short range forecasting of aviation hazards including: • Fog and low clouds • Aircraft icing • Volcanic ash clouds • Convective downburst winds • Turbulence • Coordinate with CIMSS in the following product areas: • Fog and low cloud detection (Mike Pavolonis) • Volcanic ash detection (Mike Pavolonis) • Turbulence (Wayne Feltz)

3. 3. Motivation/Justification • Aviation Weather Products support NOAA Mission Goal(s): • Weather and Water • Serve society's needs for weather and water information. • Microbursts present a threat to public safety with potential damage to both natural and man-made structures. • Web-based GOES sounder microburst products have demonstrated effectiveness and utility in the short-term prediction and warning of severe convective winds. • Promoted through VISIT lesson • Several NWS offices use web-based products exclusively or have implemented into AWIPS via local applications. • Commerce and Transportation • Support the Nation's commerce with information for safe, efficient and environmentally sound transportation. • Microbursts and Turbulence (CAT) have the potential to damage or crash aircraft as evidenced by the number of accidents since the 1970s. • Microbursts pose hazards to small water craft that could be capsized.

4. 4. Methodology • Identify relevant parameters and construct multi-variable index algorithms based on conceptual models • Fog/low cloud, icing and volcanic ash products are based on GOES imager multi-channel algorithms • Microburst products are based on multi-parameter indices that utilize GOES sounding profile data • Visualize index algorithm output with McIDAS; Generate product images using realtime GOES sounder and imager data; and NWP model data • Display experimental images and archive on WWW • Complete validation of products against observations • Fog/low cloud, microburst products: Direct comparison between output and METAR/mesonet (surface) observations • Turbulence, icing products: Direct comparison between output and PIREPS • Develop regression relationships based on statistical analysis • Present validation results in research/conference papers • Complete refinements to products based on user feedback and validation results

5. 5. Expected Outcomes • Operational implementation of GOES-imager based Low Cloud, Volcanic Ash (GOES-W TVAP), and Icing products via NWS AWIPS OB schedule. • Operational implementation of GOES-sounder based, multi-parameter downburst potential forecasting technique via local applications (i.e. NWS, DOD)‏ • Results presented in research/conference papers • User training via VISIT

6. 6. Progress in FY08 Milestones • FY08 • Convective Downbursts: Completed first phase of validation of multi-parameter forecast technique, presented preliminary results in GOES Users Conference paper, completed user training via VISIT • Fog/Low Clouds: The GOES Low Cloud Base Height (LCB) product was implemented into Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) OB 8.2 in January, 2008. Completed user training via VISIT • Turbulence: Completed validation of boundary layer turbulence products, presented results in research paper

7. Milestone: Downburst Potential • Completed first phase of testing and validation of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Microburst Windspeed Potential Index (MWPI) product. The first phase of validation of the MWPI product was completed in September 2007 and yielded favorable results: • A strong correlation (r=.77) between MWPI values and observed surface convective wind gusts. • Statistical significance of the correlation at the 97% confidence level. • Results presented in conference paper: • An Initial Assessment of the GOES Microburst Windspeed Potential Index.   • The MWPI algorithm incorporates relevant parameters for thunderstorm wind potential, including convective available potential energy (CAPE) and lower atmospheric vertical temperature and humidity gradients. A Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Microburst Windspeed Potential Index (MWPI) product image at 0000 UTC June 16, 2008 over western Texas and Oklahoma. Apparent in the product image is a cluster of convective storms that propagated through northwestern Oklahoma between 0000 and 0300 UTC June 16. Downburst wind gusts of 55 and 46 knots were recorded at Camargo and Putnam, Oklahoma Mesonet stations near 0300 UTC. Note that the stronger downburst occurred in close proximity to the highest MWPI value over western Oklahoma (62). Thus, the MWPI product effectively indicated the potential for severe wind gusts of 50 to 64 knots, based on previously derived statistical relationships.

8. Milestone: GOES Low Cloud Base Product • The GOES Low Cloud Base (LCB) product has been found to be effective at distinguishing between cloud ceilings above and below 1000 feet. Cloud ceilings below 1000 feet are considered to be hazardous for aviation and require pilots to navigate strictly by instrument guidance. • The GOES LCB product was implemented into Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) OB 8.2 in January 2008. Slide courtesy of K. Pryor

9. Milestone: Boundary Layer Turbulence • Vallidation for the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) boundary layer turbulence product (Turbulent Kinetic Energy, TKE) has been completed. The validation effort entailed direct comparison of TKE index values to wind speed observations for significant wind events that occurred at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) between December, 2007 and February, 2008. • Favorable results include a high correlation (r = .79) between index values and observed surface wind gusts with a confidence level near 100%. The high confidence level quantifies the robustness of the correlation between turbulence and wind gusts. • Validation results have been published in Arxiv.org: http://arxiv.org/abs/0803.3945 The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) three-hour forecast valid1900 UTC July 10, 2008. The TKE image displayed a maximum in index values over the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) complex (near locations “G” and “S” marked in TKE image). Peak wind gusts of 55 knots were recorded in the INL complex between 1905 and 2035 UTC. The TKE product effectively indicated the presence of intense solar heating and strong vertical wind shear in the boundary layer that resulted in turbulent eddy circulations and the strong wind gusts observed over southeastern Idaho.

10. Clear-Air Turbulence RUC DTI 0000 UTC 26 July 2008 RUC TI 0000 UTC 26 July 2008 TI = DEF x VWS DTI= DEF x VWS + DVT

11. Milestone: Conference Attendance and Papers • 5th GOES Users Conference: Attended the 5th GOES Users' Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana on 23 and 24 January 2008. Presented posters titled “An Initial Assessment of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Microburst Windspeed Potential Index” and “GOES-R Applications for the Assessment of Aviation Hazards” at the 23 January poster session. • The following conference paper was published: • Pryor, K. L., 2008: An Initial Assessment of the GOES Microburst Windspeed Potential Index.  Preprints, 5th GOES Users' Conf., New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. • Attendance and Presentation at Severe Storms Symposium: Attended the Seventh Southeast Severe Storms Symposium held at Mississippi State University on 4 and 5 April 2008. Presented a lecture titled “Forecasting Convective Downburst Potential Using GOES Sounder Derived Products” The presentation is available at the following URL: • http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/kpryor/mburst/mb7sssskp.pdf

12. Milestone: VISIT Teletraining • Seven Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training (VISIT) lesson “Forecasting Convective Downburst Potential Using GOES Sounder Derived Products” were conducted. The objective of the lesson is to provide better understanding of techniques for predicting the risk of convective downbursts utilizing Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) sounder derived data. The lesson was attended by 44 personnel from twelve National Weather Service offices and First Energy Corporation. The guide for the lesson is available at the following web address: • http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/downburst.html . • Six Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training (VISIT) lessons titled “The GOES Low Cloud Base Product” were conducted. The objective of the lesson is to provide a better understanding of the techniques for assessing the risk of Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) conditions associated with low clouds and fog, utilizing Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imager data. In attendance were 80 personnel from 20 National Weather Service Offices. The guide for the lesson is available at the following web address: • http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/lcb.html

13. 7. FY09 Milestones • FY09 • Convective Downbursts: Complete second phase of validation of multi-parameter forecast technique, present results in conference paper, continue user training via VISIT • Fog/Low Clouds: Continue user training via VISIT • Volcanic Ash, Fog/Low Clouds, Icing: Support NWS AWIPS implementation as needed. GOES PSDI proposal will be submitted for AWIPS implementation of GOES-W Volcanic Ash product, if requested by NWS. • Turbulence: Validation of modified jet stream turbulence product, present results in conference paper

14. 8. Funding Profile (K) Summary of leveraged funding NESDIS base funding support for K. Pryor 14

15. 9. Expected Purchase Items • $30,000 FY09 Total Project Budget • $28,000 STAR Software Contractor, April 2009 • 1 person at 1/4 time from Apr 09 to Mar 10 • Provide documentation and technical guidance in support of implementation of GOES Volcanic Ash product into AWIPS • $2000 Federal Travel • $2000 K. Pryor Jan. 2009, travel to Phoenix, AZ for AMS annual meeting to present results of GOES Microburst product development