LABOR DAY REPORT ON MONTANA’S ECONOMY: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

1. LABOR DAY REPORT ON MONTANA’S ECONOMY: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE Phil Brooks, Ph.D. Chief Economist Brad Eldredge, Ph.D. Candidate Economist Research and Analysis Bureau Workforce Services Division Montana Dept. of Labor and Industry September 2, 2004 (Latest Revision: September 17, 2004 – no change to data presented)

2. OVERVIEW • Economic (Labor) Data • Unemployment • Employment • Wages and Income • Geography • Statewide • 3 Largest Counties: Yellowstone, Missoula, Cascade • Remaining 53 Counties

3. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, MT & U.S., 1994-2005 6.5 6 5.5 MT 5 US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.5 4 3.5 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 YEAR Sources: Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry U.S. Dept. of Labor Global Insight Inc., for U.S. 2004-2005

4. INCLUDED DATA • Payroll Jobs series: • Civilian non-agricultural • All jobs, including both civilian and military • People employed series: • Civilian only • Used to estimate the labor force • Limited analysis

5. NONAG PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATES, MT & U.S., 1994-2005 5 4 3 MT 2 PAYROLL JOBS % CHANGE US 1 0 -1 -2 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 YEAR Sources: Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry U.S. Dept. of Labor Global Insight Inc, for 2004-2005 U.S. forecast

6. MONTANA NONAG CIVILIAN PAYROLLEMPLOYMENT, 1994-2005 420 410 400 390 380 Thousands NONAG PAYROLL JOBS 370 360 350 340 330 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 YEAR Source: Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry

7. MONTANA NONAG CIVILIAN PAYROLL JOB GROWTH, 2003-2005 • Total Job Change about 7,500 per year; 1.8%/yr • Healthcare & Social Services: Largest Sector Increase • 1,300, more or less • Nursing & residential care: smallest gain • Accommodations & Food Service • Roughly 1,200, mostly food service • Retail Trade • About 1,000; largest gain: general merchandise • Administrative, Support, & Waste Mgt. (600) • Construction (600-mostly related to building const) • Mining (+900 in 2004, 2005 no change)

8. MONTANA AVERAGE INCOME MEASURES • The Major Measuring Sticks: • Average Annual Wage per Job • Per Capita (per person) Personal Income • Median Household Income

9. MONTANA AVERAGE INCOME MEASURES • Average Annual Wage per Job • 2003: $26,900; 50th Rank (SD=$27,200) • Ranking Will Not Change in the Near Future • Per Capita Income • 2003: $25,900, 44th Rank; 45th for 2001-2002; 46th in 2000 before the national recession • Median Household Income: $34,000; 46th

10. MONTANA’S RECENT POVERTY DATA • Overall Poverty Rate • 14% for Montana (average 2001-2003) • 12% for U.S. (same time period) • 2 Extra Percentage Points = about 18,000 people • Montana is Tied for 11th Highest Among States • Higher States in Order: Arkansas, New Mexico, Mississippi, Louisiana, West Virginia, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, and New York • Lowest States in Order: New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maryland, Delaware, and Connecticut • Montanans in Poverty: About 130,000

11. MONTANA CIVILIAN PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, 2002-2012 • Overall Average per Year • 7,000 Jobs • Annual Growth Rate of about 1.6% • 2003 Was Below Average - 5,000 Jobs • Broad Sectors of the Economy Where Growth May Occur • Health & Social Services: Roughly 1,600 per year • Accommodation & Food Service: About 1,100 • Construction: Approximately 800

12. MONTANA CIVILIAN PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, 2002-2012 • Administrative Support and Waste Management: 600 • Retail Trade: 500 (lower than the short-term forecast overall average per year) • 2005 Short-term Forecast Includes Some Impact of the Lewis & Clark Bicentennial • Decrease in Gasoline Stations (-150/year) not in 2004-2005 (food and general merchandise stores now selling gas) • Decrease in Food Stores (-50)—Wal-Mart phenomenon • Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services: 500

13. MONTANA CIVILIAN PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT DECREASES, 2002-2012 • Production Ag. & Forestry Including Logging: -125 • Decline in production agriculture payroll jobs, many decades long • Manufacturing: -100 • Exception: increases in concrete products related to strong construction • Also true for fabricated (structural) metal products • Increase also forecast for beverage manufacturing • Mining: -75 • Oil & gas exploration short lived • No new metal mines after Montana Resources’ return to production in late 2003

14. PROJECTED FASTEST GROWING INDUSTRIES, 2002-2012

15. PROJECTED FASTEST GROWING INDUSTRIES, 2002-2012 • Waste Management & Remediation growth is Related to the Libby Asbestos Clean-up, and the Clark Fork (of the Columbia River) Clean-up • 3 Industries Related to Construction • Building construction • Special trades construction • Concrete products manufacturing • 2 Industries Related to an Aging Population • Nursing Care • Daycare, Family Services, Other Social Assistance

16. PROJECTED FASTEST DECLINING INDUSTRIES, 2002-2012

17. PROJECTED FASTEST DECLINING INDUSTRIES, 2002-2012 • 6 Manufacturing Industries (2 are small) • Stand Alone Gas Stations Category: Not Part of a Store • 2 Mining Industries • Extraction (production) of Crude Oil & Natural Gas Follows the National Historical Downward Trend and Projected to Continue • Mining Support Activities Mostly Oil/Gas Exploration • Forestry & Logging (Timber) • Related Wood Products Mfg (sawmills etc.): -1.6%

18. Montana’s Occupations, 2002-2012 State Projections available at: www.ourfactsyourfuture.org

19. The Occupational Projections Process • Industry projections based on an analysis of trends • Projections are based on a long-term view of the economy • Assumes a long-run full employment economy

20. The Occupational Projections Process Industry Employment Occupational Demand

21. Montana’s Population Will Continue to Grow 1,000,000 910,372 825,770 1992 2002 2012 Projected Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Phil Brooks

22. Montana Live Births, 1945-2002 Source: Montana Dept. of Public Health & Human Services

23. Age of Montana’s Workforce Source: Montana Unemployment Insurance Wage Data

24. Age of Montana’s Workforce Source: Montana Unemployment Insurance Wage Data

25. Montana’s Population Will Continue to Grow Annual Percentage Growth Rate 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2002-12 Projected Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Phil Brooks

26. Labor Force Growth Annual Percentage Growth Rate 3.6% 1.9% 0.8% 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 Source: Research and Analysis Bureau, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program

27. Women’s Labor Force Growth Percent Change over the Decade 23.8% 9.8% 9.6% -4.3% 1982-1992 1992-2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment

28. Women’s Share of the Labor Force 59.4 53.1 53.1 46.9 46.9 40.6 2002 1982 1992 1982 1992 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment

29. Montana’s Labor Force Participation Rate by Sex Male Total Female Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment

30. Wage and Salary Jobs Will Account for Most of the Employment Growth Number of Jobs (Thousands) 650.7 575.2 178.3 458.8 151.7 113.5 423.5 472.4 345.3 1992 2002 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (1992 and 2002 data)

31. Job Growth Can Be Viewed in Two Ways 2002-2012 Projected 884 36.8% 19.3% 110 Percentage Change Numeric Change

32. There are 22 Major Occupational Groups • Of these, 12 are projected to grow faster than average. Together, these 12 major groups: • Accounted for 41% of all employment in 2002, and • Are projected to account for 63% of all employment change from 2002-12

33. Fastest Growing Major Occupational Groups 36% 34% 32% 31% 28% 28% 25%

34. Slowest Growing Major Occupational Groups Farming, Fishing, and Forestry occupations -6.9% Production Occupations 1.1% Office and Administrative Support Occupations 7.5% Transportation and Material Moving Workers 11.1% Sales and Related Occupations 13.3% 13.4% Management Occupations Education, Training, and Library Occupations 14.1%

35. Nine Major Occupations are Expected to Gain More Than 4,000 Jobs Construction and Extraction Occupations 13,855 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 10,872 Management Occupations 9,215 Sales and Related Occupations 8,282 Healthcare Practitioner And Technical Occupations 6,214 Personal Care and Service Occupations 6,082 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 5,282 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 4,904 Installation, Maintenance And Repair Occupations 4,091

36. Job Openings From Replacement Needs Exceed Those From Net Employment Growth Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 17,298 10,872 18,922 Sales and Related Occupations 8,282 Construction and Extraction Occupations 7,657 13,855 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 16,205 5,282 9,454 Management Occupations 9,215 6,359 Personal Care and Service Occupations 6,082 4,318 Healthcare Practitioner and Technical Occupations 6214 Transportation and Material Moving Workers 6,614 3,546 Education, Training, and Library Occupations 5,982 3,995 Building, Grounds Cleaning And Maintenance Workers 4,961 4,904

37. Occupations With the Most Openings for New Entrants 6,401 Retail Salespersons 2,480 4,456 Waiters and Waitresses 2,593 2,089 Carpenters 4,094 5,181 Cashiers 551 Child Care Workers 2,957 2,052 1,690 Registered Nurses 2,624 2,041 General and Operations Managers 2,263 Combined Food Preparation and Serving workers 1,987 1,704 Janitors and Cleaners, except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1,781 1,622 1,450 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor Trailer 1,353

38. Fastest Growing Detailed Occupations (Minimum Base =100) 71.5% Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe Cleaners 68.8% Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 65.1% Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 64.8% Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 61.4% Private Detectives and Investigators Personal Financial Advisors 59.1% 57.7% Social and Human Service Assistants Roofers 55.8% 53.3% Medical Assistants 53.2% Heating, Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Mechanics and installers

39. Twenty Detailed Occupations Will Grow by More Than 1,000 Jobs Numeric Change, Projected (2002-2012) 4,094 Carpenters Registered Nurses 2,624 2,593 Waiters and Waitresses Retail Salespersons 2,480 2,263 General and Operations Managers 2,052 Child Care Workers 1,750 Construction Laborers 1,704 Fast Food Workers 1,622 Janitors and Cleaners Personal,Home Care Aids 1,578

40. Openings in High-Wage Occupations Source: Research and Analysis Bureau, Occupational and Employment Statistics Program

41. Web Sites • Research & Analysis Bureau www.ourfactsyourfuture.org • Occupational Outlook Handbook http://www.bls.gov/oco/ • Career Guide to Industries http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/ • Occupational Outlook Quarterly http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm

42. Education Pays Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

43. BLS Defines 11 Training Categories • First Professional Degree • Doctoral Degree • Master’s Degree • Bachelor’s Degree or higher with work experience in a related occupation • Bachelor’s Degree • Associate’s Degree • Postsecondary Vocational Training • Work Experience in a related occupation • Long-Term on-the-job training • Medium-Term on-the-job training • Short-Term on-the-job training

44. Educational Requirements for Montana’s Jobs • Currently, just over half of Montana’s jobs (50.7%) require only Short-Term or Medium- Term on-the-job training • In 2012, we project this number will remain essentially unchanged (50.0%) • In 2002, only 19.2% of Montana’s jobs required a Bachelor’s Degree or higher • In 2012, we project this number will remain essentially unchanged (19.7%)

45. Growth Rates by Educational Requirements First Professional Degree Doctoral Degree Master’s Degree Bachelor’s +Experience Bachelor’s Degree Associate’s Degree Vocational Training Exp. in related job Long-Term OTJ Training Med.-Term OTJ Training Short-Term OTJ Training

46. Growth Rates by Educational Requirements 15.3% First Professional Degree 28.4% Doctoral Degree 24.2% Master’s Degree 17.5% Bachelor’s Degree + Exp in Related job 21.2% Bachelor’s Degree 27.7% Associate’s Degree 22.1% Postsecondary Vocational Training 15.7% Work Exp. In a related occupation 16.3% Long-Term on-the-job training 15.1% Medium-Term on-the-job training 16.0% Short-Term on-the-job training

47. County Occupational Projections • So far, we have only done Yellowstone County (2000-2010) • Results were similar to the statewide projections • We plan to do Missoula County (summer 2005)

48. Yellowstone County High Wage Occupations(20 or More Annual Openings) Source: Research and Analysis Bureau: Occupational and Employment Statistics Program

49. Yellowstone County Top 10 Occupations

50. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, MT & CASCADE COUNTY, 1994-2005 6 5.5 MT 5 Cascade UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.5 4 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 YEAR Source: Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry