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Interpreting Housing Numbers: Economic Insights and Market Trends

Dive into the latest data analysis from the ULI Terwilliger Center for Housing's Chief Economist, David Crowe. Explore the slow progress of single-family housing, high delinquency rates, credit standards, appraisal challenges, policy uncertainties, and more. Also, learn about the factors affecting house prices and the impact of regulations and elections on the housing market. For comprehensive answers and information, visit www.housingeconomics.com and eyeonhousing.wordpress.com.

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Interpreting Housing Numbers: Economic Insights and Market Trends

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  1. What Do the Numbers Tell Us? ULI Terwilliger Center for Housing David Crowe Chief Economist

  2. Comparable Progress To DateCurrent Production Relative to 2000-2002 Levels

  3. What’s taking single-family so long?

  4. Household Formations (000s)

  5. Employment Levels – Subpar increases

  6. High Delinquency Inventory But Varies Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies month’s supply at annual sales rate Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies U.S. = 8.4 months

  7. House Prices Have Yet to ReboundMeasures of house prices

  8. Credit Standards Still Very Tight FICO Scores of Closed vs Denied Conventional Purchase Loans

  9. Builders Losing a Sale Because of Appraisal

  10. Housing Permits By Current Performance - MSAs

  11. Policy Uncertainties • Dodd-Frank regulations • QM – what is a mortgage? • QRM – what is a safe mortgage? • Tax reform • Mortgage interest deduction • Marginal tax rates • Debt/deficit reduction • Less government spending.. where? • Reduced tax breaks • GSE future • When, how, what? • Election

  12. Questions?Answers: www.housingeconomics.comeyeonhousing.wordpress.com

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