PRESENTATION

1. Scenarios & Forward studies a brief overviewTeresa RibeiroHead of GroupEIONET seminar: Forward-looking information in environmental assessments19-20 May 2008

2. PRESENTATION • I – Terminology & definitions: an introduction • II – When are scenarios/outlooks used (environment) • III – Main recent assessments: scenarios archetypes • IV – How to improve the use of scenarios: no simple recipe • V- EEA Scenarios & forward studies: main areas of work

3. I • I – Terminology & definitions: • an introduction

4. I –What is a Scenario? • A projection? (EU Electricity demand in 2020) • An outlook? ( NL Sustainability Outlook) • The numerical results of mathematical model (s)? • An Assessment? ( M A Scenario Assessment report?) • “Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures. They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will come into play. (UNEP, 2002)

5. I –What is a Scenario? • 3 Main ‘schools of though’ on “scenarios” • US military strategy (Cold war/ Rand corporation) • French School of La Prospective (A vision for society) • Environmental Sciences (mathematical, system analysis modelling)

6. I - Typology of „scenarios“ (1) • Qualitative scenarios • are narrative descriptions of future developments • (i.e. presented as storylines, diagrams, images, etc.). • Quantitative (scenarios, outlooks, projections) • are numerical estimates of future developments • (i.e. presented as tables, graphs, maps, etc.) • usually based on available data, past trends and/or mathematical models. Combination of qualitative and quantitative information SAS- Story & Simulation (EEA 2001) (PRELUDE, IPCC, MA, GEO,…)

7. I - Typology of environmental scenarios (2) • Baseline vs Alternative Scenarios • baseline scenarios (also ‘reference’ scenarios) • describe a future development / state in which no new policies or measures are implemented apart from those already adopted or agreed upon • alternative scenarios (also ‘policy’ scenarios) • take into account new policies or measures additional to those already adopted or agreed upon and/or that assumptions on key driving forces diverge from those depicted in a baseline scenario.

8. I - Typology of environmental scenarios (3) • Exploratory vs Anticipatory Scenarios exploratory scenarios • present -> future • to explore uncertainties/driving forces/developments • to test impacts of implementing specific policies anticipatory scenarios (also ‘normative’ scenarios) • present <- future • to investigate how specific end state can be reached • to show how to achieve environmental targets

9. I - EEA definitions (Glossary) • Scenarios • … (a set of ) plausible descriptions of how the future may unfold based on a set of 'if-then' propositions. • Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts. • Outlook(s) • … (a set of) estimates of future developments usually based on available data, past trends and/or models.

10. II • II – When are scenarios/outlooks used (environment)

11. II – When are ”scenarios” used (complexity & Uncertainty) Authors: Monica Zurich and Thomas Henrichs

12. II – Use of “Scenarios” in the policy cycle Outlooks Scenarios Problem recognised Measures taken Problem controlled Problem signalled Public awareness / Policy attention

13. Scenarios to strategies Scenarios, tipping points, surprises, discontinuities Emerging issues Early warnings Distance to target analyses Projections Uncertainties analyses Scenarios (policy options) Forward-looking component in IS Scenarios –options, goals, measures

14. II - When are “scenarios” used • 1) Support strategic planning/ decision making by: • illustrating options for the future • supporting robust decisisons by analysing related uncertainties, drivers and surprises • Can we prevent some problemsby collection early warnings and acting early (or precautionary)? • 2) Improve the information base and relevance: • Are we measuring /monitoring relevant issues? • . Will we met the targets/ goals • 3) Science – Research • Support long term programmes

15. III • III Recent “SCENARIOS” STUDIES/ASSESSMENTS • PRELUDE • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment • Main Arketypes • GEO • OECD • Agricultural • Etc, etc. ( Jan Bakkes)

16. III – Recent “SCENARIOS” STUDIES/ASSESSMENTSPRELUDE www.eea.europa.eu/prelude

17. Driver assumptions Great Escape Environmentalconcern High Mid Low Solidarity & equity Technology& Innovation Agriculturaloptimisation Governance & intervention Clustered Networks Lettuce Surprise U Evolved Society Big Crisis

18. Landscape changes Now BC GE ES LSU CN Scenario comparison 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25

19. III – Recent “SCENARIOS” STUDIES/ASSESSMENTS ‚Millennium Ecosystem Assessment‘ Scenarios • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment • To present a range of scenarios for how the quantity and quality of ecosystem goods and services may change in coming decades. • Four scenarios Technogarden Global Orchestration Global Coop AdaptiveMosaic Order fromStrength Regional Coop Proactive Reactive Source: Personal Communication (2003)

20. III – Recent “SCENARIOS” STUDIES/ASSESSMENTS – Arquetypes of scenarios • Conventional Markets • GReat EScape (PRELLUDE) • ‘Belgrade report’ (EEA) • Markets First (GEO-3/4) • SRES A1 (IPCC) • most ‘Baselines’’ • Reformed Markets • Europe of Structure (Prelude) • Global Orchestration (MA) • Policy First (GEO-3/4) • SRES B1 (IPCC) • Global Sustainability • Europe of Cohesion (Prelude) • TechnoGarden (MA) • Sustainability First (GEO-3/4) • SRES B1 (IPCC) • Regional Competition • Europe of Contrast (Prelude) • Order from Strength (MA) • Security First (GEO-3/4) • SRES A2 (IPCC) • Regional Sustainability • Europe of Harmony (Prelude) • Adapting Mosaic (MA) • SRES B2 (IPCC) Author: Thomas Henrichs

21. IV • IV- How can we improve the useof “scenarios”: no simple recipe • Develop more targeted and sound forward-looking assessments at appropriate geographical scale!

22. IV- How can we improve the useofscenarios: no simple recipe • How can we improve the use(fulness) offorward-looking studies? • Improve concepts,aproach & methods ... • b) Improve governance and institutional setting

23. a) Improve the approach • Each scenario exercise needs to be tailor-made approach. • ...and should meet the goal of the exercise • Develop more targeted and sound forward-looking assessments at appropriate geographical scale! • Identify the goal of the exercise • Education & information; investigation & research; or action/strategy/decision support • 2. Identify the focal question/issue • 3.Choose the adequate approach to the goal and focal issues at stake Using qualitative (e.g. narratives) or quantitative approaches (e.g. modelling) or a combinition of both.

24. b)Improve the governance/ institutional setting • 1. Include future perspective routinely in regular environment reporting activities and systems • 2. Strenthennational and regional leadership in producing forward-looking assessments to support policy processes • 3. Strengthen institutional capacity at all levels to perform forward looking assessments

25. V • V - EEA Scenarios & forward studies: • main areas of work

26. V – EEA Scenarios & Forward Studies Group: Main areas of work • I) Undertaking forward looking assessments • Improving the information system (IS) • III) Cooperation and capacity building

27. V – EEA Scenarios & Forward Studies Group: Main areas of work • I) Undertaking forward looking assessments • SOER - EO2005 • PRELUDE (5 land-use scenarios) • Glimpses ( analysing uncertainties) • Taking stock, methodology developments • Scoping study (CASE, BLOSSOM)

28. V – EEA Scenarios & Forward Studies Group: Main areas of work • II) Improving the information system (IS) • Review relevant available models at EU level • Developing outlook indicators for EU/EEA • Gathering, analysing and assessing available outlooks indicators ( Belgrade) • IMS (Future) catalogue.

29. V – EEA Scenarios & Forward Studies Group: Main areas of work • III) Cooperation and Capacity building • UNEP – GEO & Ecosystem manual • MA • Research Networks • Countries • Regions ( EU, EECCA, ASIA/EU, SEE, …)

30. Scenarios & Forwardstudies a brief overview • The END! • (More detailed presentation of activities tomorrow) • More information at: • http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/scenarios

33. Countries presentations • Before the break: • Two broad strategic presentations: • Sweden - Using scenarios for strategic policy-making • Germany - Improving the use and usefulness of FS • After the break: • 3 different case-studies • Netherlands –Second Sustainability Outlooks • Austria – GHGs and Air pollutants:idenfiying policy measures • Sweden – Tool to test Air Pollutants emission estimates

34. QUESTIONS for Break out groups • Which topics should be most relevant to take up in forward-looking environment assessments in the next 5 years on the European level? • How should we develop in the next 5 years our information system with forward-looking components? • Which capacities and networking do we need to build with EIONET and cooperating countries to respond to the above identified needs?

35. Approaches to scenarios • Intutitive vs Formalised Methods intuitive methods • qualitative: stakeholders, experts-> pictures, storylines, diagrams, ... • quantitative: expert questionaire, trend extrapolation -> numerical estimates, … formalized methods • qualitative: rule-based models, inference models-> diagrams, flow-charts, … • quantitative: mathematical modelling -> numerical estimates, spatial data

36. Improve communication with stakeholders by: • Establishing common platform for joint discussion of different communities • Stakeholder participation from the beginning of decision-making processes • Educate and teach students, citizens, pupils • Raise awareness of policy makers and stakeholders Examples of the use of scenarios: climate change (IPPC) fund allocations (EIB)

37. The EEA approaches • Distance-to-Target • policy simulation / evaluation • what-if …?, trend analyses • Driving forces analyses • quantitative analyses • Scenario Analysis • 2002- • policy agenda setting • uncertainty analyses • driving forces analyses • emerging issues, surprises • qualitative analyses • Experts, Data & • Modelling Experts & Stakeholders SAS Combination of both Scenarios (long-term) Projections (short-term) ☺ Issue … European Land Use Change Scenarios The main driving forces behind land use change are climate change, population growth and technical and economic development, particularly of the transport and agriculture sectors.

38. I –What is a Scenario? • Many different definitions exist... • “A scenario is a sequence of events especially when imagined; especially: an account or synopsis of a possible course of action or events”(Merriam-Webster Dictionary On-line, 2003) • “Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focussing attention on causal processes and decision points.” (Kahn and Wiener, 1967) • “Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures. They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will come into play. (UNEP, 2002)