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An Analysis of Weather Models During Winter Months at Duluth Minnesota

An Analysis of Weather Models During Winter Months at Duluth Minnesota . A look at moderate-heavy precipitation events during a specific timeframe, looking at 6 hour totals (out to forecast: 60 hour) Compared to model indicated estimates Zach Henderson, Ian Luhm

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An Analysis of Weather Models During Winter Months at Duluth Minnesota

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  1. An Analysis of Weather Models During Winter Months at Duluth Minnesota • A look at moderate-heavy precipitation events during a specific timeframe, looking at 6 hour totals (out to forecast: 60 hour) Compared to model indicated estimates Zach Henderson, Ian Luhm Northern Plains Winter Storm Conference 2012

  2. Methodology • #5, #6, #8, # 11

  3. NAM GRID INTERPOLATIONS

  4. GFS GRID INTERPOLATIONS

  5. Primary Data Collectors • Justin Liles (03’) Created the Spreadsheet • Way to ‘standardize’ forecasting and visualize 7 day forecast period • Ben Dery (SCSU) • Charlene Malin (SCSU) • Adam Lorch • Ian Luhm (SCSU)

  6. Data Points • Over 6,800 Data Points of Usable Data Analyzed • Measured in 100th’s of an inch • Roughly 10% entered and usable • Focus on Larger Events of Precipitation >.04 • Winter Months November – March • 2009, 11/2011 – 3/2012

  7. Correlation of R Values R squared values relate much correspondence exist between the variables with a value “1” being perfect correlation

  8. Future Research • Analyze ALL precipitation events, including Traces • Fill In data for Summer months • Add every year dating back to 2006 • Analyze performance with changes in models • Scrutinize other variables: Wind • Apply information gathered to relevant parties • Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error • Not enough data points to make error values relevant

  9. Acknowledgements • Billings, Dr. Brian • Dery, Ben • Hansen, Dr. Tony • Liles, Justin • Schlumpberger, Debbie • Weisman, Dr. Robert • Texas A & M University • Wunderground

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