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AIB Mortgage Bank – Asset Covered Securities June 2007
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AIB Mortgage Bank – Asset Covered Securities June 2007 A number of statements we will be making in our presentation and in the accompanying slides will not be based on historical fact,but will be “forward-looking” statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and regional economic conditions, levels of market interest rates, credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, competitive and regulatory factors and technology change. Any ‘forward-looking’ statements made by or on behalf of the Group speak only as of the date they are made.
Contents Sections • AIB Mortgage Bank, Collateral Pool & Legislative Changes • Irish Housing Market • Performance of Irish Covered Bonds • AIB Group Funding Profile Appendices Irish Asset Covered Bond Legislation AIB Group Overview Republic of Ireland Economy
Section 1: AIB Mortgage Bank, Collateral Pool & Legislative Changes
Overview of AIB Mortgage Bank • Registered as a Designated Mortgage Credit Institution (DCI) • License granted by Regulator – Feb 2006 • Non-guaranteed, Public Unlimited Company wholly owned by AIB plc • 9 Directors, including 3 non-executive directors • Major activities outsourced to AIB (ROI) Division subject to terms of the Service Level Agreement • Mortgage Assets Total €16bn+ • Capital Exceeds 8.5%+ of RWA at €766m • €15bn EMTN programme launched in 2006 • 3 ACS Bond issues completed, total €5.5bn
AIB Group’s position in the Irish Mortgage Market • Total Irish mortgage market drawn balances are estimated at €100bn+ • AIB Bank market share 16%+ • AIB Bank presence in all major towns and cities via a network of 275 offices • 35%+ of the banked public have a primary account relationship with AIB Bank • 80%+ of branch sourced mortgages come from existing AIB Bank account holders • Mortgages are originated by AIB Bank and sold by AIB Mortgage Bank • AIB MB does not book mortgages introduced through intermediaries and only holds assets comprising residential mortgages
Credit Policy • AIB Bank’s marketing is focused on customer relationships – ‘we sell mortgages to customers we know’ • Priority measure is ‘ability to repay’ and then ‘asset quality’ • For owner occupied residential mortgages the Max Loan amount determined by Debt Service Ratio • (DSR) = the Proportion of Net Income that is prudent to allow for purposes of Mortgage Repayments • Buy to Let mortgages utilise cashflow assessment • DSR is stress tested to allow for increases in interest rates of 2% • Max LTV = 92% • Lenders have no sanctioning Targets/Quotas • Exceptions are approved by Senior Mortgage Lenders • Regular reporting to Regulator
Residential Mortgage Historic Data • New Business LTV Percentages
Residential Mortgage Portfolio Data • Indexed LTV Ranges of Collateral Pool Weighted average Indexed collateral LTV 54.4%
Residential Mortgage Portfolio Data • Origination by year • Weighted Averaging seasoning of pool = 28.6months • Average legal maturity is 20 years • Expected average life estimated between 5 to 7 years • Total aggregate indexed LTV = 38%
Residential Mortgage Portfolio Data • Geographic breakdown of Collateral Pool • Occupancy Breakdown of Collateral Pool
ACS: AIBMB Collateral Pool • No commercial mortgages, no arrears > 3 months included in pool, minimal interest rate risk
AIB Mortgage Bank Summary • AIB Mortgage Bank launched three bond issues in 2006 totalling €5.5bn • Mortgages are originated from the AIB Bank branch network in Ireland • Tight credit policies ensure credit quality • Portfolio data illustrates granularity, low LTVs, geographic diversity • ‘Interest only’ loans are primarily granted for periods of less than 5 years • Annuity effect on the portfolio contributes to reducing the LTV • Expected average life is between 5 & 7 years
Asset Covered Securities (Amendment) Act 2007 • The rationale for the amendments includes • Introduction of Capital Requirements Directive in 2007 • Ensuring Irish ACS legislation remains fully CRD compliant • ACS legislation requires Irish ACS issuers to be compliant with the CRD at all times resulting in transparency for investors and a 10% Basel II Risk Weighting • Enhancing investor protection • Completing legislative framework for a 3rd asset type - commercial mortgages • Changes ensure that Irish ACS are CRD compliant in terms of the definition of a Covered Bond, but the changes do not go as far as the CRD in terms of eligible assets ensuring that credit quality within the pools is maintained • The three key changes are • Quality of Eligible Assets • Risk Control • Monitoring & Compliance
Asset Covered Securities Legislation • The Irish Government has clearly demonstrated commitment to the growth of covered bond issuance in Ireland by updating the ACS legislation • The amended legislation has ensured ACS bonds are CRD compliant • Every effort has been made to provide transparency to investors • The result allows investors to compare the Irish ACS framework with leading covered bond competitors from Germany and France
Period of Adjustment for Housing Market • Adjustment in the housing market underway • Rate of price inflation falling • Forward looking indicators point to lower supply • Market had been in danger of overheating • Level of price rises was becoming unsustainable • Output at very high levels • Factors driving adjustment • High level of prices • Rising interest rates - leading to deteriorating affordability
Many Factors Underpinning Strong Housing Demand • Continued strong inward migration • Favourable demographic trends • Untapped demand: low headship rates in Ireland • Continuing demand for second homes • Strong growth of economy and employment • Easier financing: longer term mortgages, interest rates still low in historical context • Fiscal policy: mortgage interest relief for FTB, tax relief on rental income for investors, easing in stamp duty for FTB
But This Should Help Stabilise Deterioration in Housing Affordability
Functional Demand for Additional Housing(Year to April) Avg 1996 – 2002 Avg 2002 - 2006 2007 (e) 2008 (f) Indigenous Population Growth 12,550 17,300 17,300 17,400 Migration Flows 13,650 18,700 27,500 24,000 Headship 1,250 9,700 20,000 20,000 Second / Vacant Homes 10,800 19,600 16,000 10,000 Replacement of Obsolete Units 6,500 8,300 9,200 9,600 Completions 44,750 73,600 90,000 81,000
Robust Employment Growth and Low Unemployment Support Housing Demand
Risk Factors For Housing • Interest rates still have a bit to go • Deterioration in economic environment and labour market situation • Market falls further as urgency to purchase recedes with decline in house price inflation • Risk of undue pessimism … negative media reporting etc
Summary On Housing Market • Period of Adjustment Underway • Both prices and output adjusting downward • Market remains well underpinned • Good economic climate • Rapid employment growth • Untapped demand • Large influx of migrants • Market still heading for soft landing
Covered Bond Trading • Irish ACS account for 13.3% of total MTS traded volume – reflecting demand for the ACS product • Irish ACS account for 11.6% of all outstanding covered bonds • Eligibility for EuroMTS - - issuer must be Dutch, French, German, Irish, Italian, Spanish or UK - Collateral pool must be mortgage backed or public sector - Issue size €2bn or greater Euro Credit MTS / EUROMTS Q1 2007 % Traded Volume Listed Covered Bonds Q1 2007 % Outstanding by Region
Performance of AIB MB Issues AIB spread at launch MS-3 AIB current spread MS-9.7 HYPINT spread at launch MS-4 HYPINT current spread MS-11.8 Source: UBS
Performance of AIB MB Issues AIB spread at launch MS+1 CIFEUR spread at launch MS-1 AIB current spread MS-2.9 LBBW spread at launch MS-1 CIFEUR current spread MS-3.9 LBBW current spread MS-6.8 Source: UBS
Performance of AIB MB Issues AIB spread at launch MS-4 CFF current spread MS-9.2 CFF spread at launch MS-6.5 AIB current spread MS-10.0 Source: UBS
Performance of Irish Covered Bonds Summary • All benchmark issues from AIB MB are supported by active market makers • EuroMTS records substantial volumes of Irish ACS trading • Investment bank research suggests spreads should tighten • Amended Irish ACS legislation will assist in Irish ACS spreads tightening against German Pfandbrief and French mortgage bank issues
AIB’s Funding Programmes • Short Term Instruments • OTC Certificates of Deposit , €, STG, US$, Can$, A$ • US $10bn Commercial Paper Programme • US $10bn Yankee CD Programme • € 5bn French Certificate of Deposit Programme • Can $3bn Maple Commercial Paper Programme* • Long Term Instruments • AIB plc ( Aa2 / A+(p) / AA-) • € 30bn EMTN programme • $ 10bn US$ Extendible Note Programme • AIB Mortgage Bank (Aaa / AAA / AAA) • € 15bn covered bond EMTN programme
AIB Debt Distribution: 31 March 2007 AIB Debt Distribution AIB Debt Currency Mix Note: Step-up issues – adjusted to earliest step-up date
Funding Profile Summary • The Dublin based Global Treasury has suitable debt programmes available to support the AIB Group’s funding strategy • AIB Group’s issuance of AAA/Aaa/AAA bonds is limited to issuance from AIB MB • AIB MB represents c. 11% of AIB Group’s total Balance Sheet • 2007 forecast issuance includes c.€3b of ACS • AIB will continue to grow institutional investor base by focusing the majority of new transactions on € benchmark issues • AIB is committed to ensuring AIB’s securities trade at a realistic market level, by having a commercial approach to pricing, and by appointing experienced intermediaries with proven market making skills • Commited to Debt Investor Relations
Contacts AIB Web Site www.aib.ie/investor relations Contains AIB & AIB Mortgage Bank programmes, listing particulars and presentations AIB Group Investor Relations www.aibgroup.com/investorrelations GM Group Finance Alan Kelly T: + 353-1-641-2160 Manager Rose O’DonovanT: +353-1-641-4191 AIB Global Treasuryemail: bond.issues@aib.ie Treasurer Funding and Liquidity Gerry O’Connor T: +353-1-6417891 Chief Dealer, Capital and Debt IR Duncan Farquhar T :+353-1-6417811 Chief Dealer, Senior Debt & ACS Sean Cremen T: + 353-1-6417803
Asset Covered Securities Act 2001 • In Ireland the activity relating to asset covered securities is primarily governed by the legislation which delegates the operational regulation to the Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority (IFSRA) • Specialist bank principle - ACS can only be issued by a ‘Designated Credit Institution’ (DCI) • A DCI must • be approved by IFSRA • be owned by an IFSRA regulated bank • be separately capitalised • have non-executive Board membership • agree to be restricted to activities defined within the ACS legislation • Eligibility for asset classes to be held by a DCI • The Act restricts the asset classes, and requires IFSRA to issue a Regulatory Notice (RN) for each asset class • RNs have been issued for 2 asset classes - Public Sector and Residential Mortgages • RNs describe the procedures for valuing the collateral
Asset Covered Securities Act 2001 • Covered Asset Monitor (CAM) is an independent appointment, subject to approval by IFSRA. The CAM is responsible for monitoring the collateral pool • The DCI’s assets are divided between the pledged collateral pool and unpledged assets • The RN valuation methodology governs both pledged and unpledged assets, and requires • all mortgages to be indexed by reference to an IFSRA approved index, IL&P/ESRI Property Index • a Prudent Discount Factor (PDF) is used to discount upward movements of the index whilst all negative movements are taken in full, the result is the Prudent Market Value (PMV) • In the pledged collateral pool any one mortgage loan’s contribution to the collateral pool is limited to 75% of the PMV of the secured property • Loans may have high LTVs but the aggregate LTV of the entire mortgage loan portfolio of the DCI must not exceed 80% of the PMV of the properties
Asset Covered Securities Act 2001 • The combined effect of The Act and the RN ensures the quality of the residential mortgage collateral cannot be compromised by changes in property market prices; the restrictions extend to controlling both the aggregate collateral holding in the DCI and the actual collateral Pool • The ACS Bondholders are protected at all times, since • The Prudent Market Value of the Pool must be > the ACS principal outstanding • The interest receivable from the Pool must be > the interest payable on the ACS for any 12 month period • The weighted average maturity of the pool must be > the ACS maturity
Asset Covered Securities Act 2001 • Balance Sheet Interest rate sensitivity is subject to limits • Publication of statutory accounts, including report on collateral performance • In the Event of Default • National Treasury Management Agency (Govt. Agency) appointed • Pool exempt from bankruptcy proceedings • Bond holders prioritised
Asset Covered Securities (Amendment) Act 2007 • The rationale for the amendments includes • Introduction of Capital Requirements Directive in 2007 • Ensuring Irish ACS legislation remains fully CRD compliant • ACS legislation requires Irish ACS issuers to be compliant with the CRD at all times resulting in transparency for investors and a 10% Basel II Risk Weighting • Enhancing investor protection • Completing legislative framework for a 3rd asset type - commercial mortgages • Changes ensure that Irish ACS are CRD compliant in terms of the definition of a Covered Bond, but the changes do not go as far as the CRD in terms of eligible assets ensuring that credit quality within the pools is maintained • The three key changes are • Quality of Eligible Assets • Risk Control • Monitoring & Compliance
Asset Covered Securities (Amendment) Act 2007 Quality of Eligible Assets • Responds to investors and rating agencies desire to maintain high quality and well diversified Cover Pools. The changes have taken some of the CRD opportunities to enhance diversification but have maintained a focus on the eligibility of the highest quality credits • Residential Mortgages • Securitised mortgage collateral becomes eligible for the pool, enhancing the credit quality and most importantly the liquidity of the mortgage assets in the pool • To facilitate diversification, mortgages from highly rated countries outside the EU are now eligible (USA, Canada, Switzerland, Japan, New Zealand, Australia) • Commercial Mortgages • Are now eligible provided a separate covered pool is established • Public Sector • The 15% restriction on assets from the United States, Canada, Switzerland and Japan has been removed • In addition, New Zealand and Australia have become eligible countries (both AAA at S&P). Other non-Aaa non-EU countries are not eligible • Development Banks have now become eligible (only the EIB was eligible before)
Asset Covered Securities (Amendment) Act 2007 Risk Control • Legislative Over-collateralisation • Currently, all Irish ACS issuers are contracted with the rating agencies to 5% over-collateralisation • Now obligation to maintain 3% over-collateralisation by law for mortgage and public sector pools • New mandatory 10% over-collateralisation for commercial mortgage ACS required by law • The Regulator will continue to issue Regulatory Notices which govern the collateral pool valuation procedures • Collateral pools will continue to be valued by reporting to CAM’s on a weekly or monthly basis
Asset Covered Securities (Amendment) Act 2007 Risk Control • Pool Hedge Collateral • The amendment introduces a separate register of pool hedge collateral which will clarify the rights of hedge counterparties making it easier for issuers to enter into ISDA and CSA agreements for the direct benefit of the cover pool and bond holders • The amendments will ensure the transparent management of pool hedge collateral • Facilitates effective use of derivatives to manage interest rate and currency exposures allowing issuers to improve the matching in the pool for the benefit of bondholders • Changes in the duration gap calculation • Test has now been simplified to ensure transparency • Will assess the weighted average time to maturity of the assets and liabilities in the pool • Reduction in the volume of substitute assets • Compliant with the CRD, the volume of substitute assets under these amendments will go from 20% of pool assets to 15% of ACS issued
Asset Covered Securities (Amendment) Act 2007 Monitoring & Compliance • The ACS legislation is at the forefront of the market with regard to its monitoring and compliance • The weekly or monthly reporting (depending on the issuer) of the Cover Pools and DCI information and the real-time monitoring of that data by the Covered Asset Monitor mean that the ACS market retains the strongest oversight – hence very few amendments have been made here • The adjustments are limited to: • Ensuring the CAM has responsibility for monitoring the legislative over- collateralisation requirement as well as the existing contractual over-collateralisation requirements • Ensuring the CAM’s obligations to monitor ACS issuers now captures any Commercial Mortgage issuers that enter the market The role of the NTMA as the servicer of last resort has not been amended in the legislation remaining a cornerstone of the ACS framework
Asset Covered Securities Legislation Summary • The Irish Government has clearly demonstrated commitment to the growth of covered bond issuance in Ireland by updating the ACS legislation • The amended legislation has ensured ACS bonds are CRD compliant • Every effort has been made to provide transparency to investors • The result allows investors to compare the Irish ACS framework with leading covered bond competitors from Germany and France