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Requirements for the development of EGS. Session: How to improve exploitation and cost-effectiveness of geothermal energy and manage environmental and social impacts?. Content:. Status: what we know/need Identification of Obstacles R+D Requirements. Dr. Th. Mégel GEOWATT AG, CH-Zürich
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Requirements for the development of EGS Session: How to improve exploitation and cost-effectiveness of geothermal energy and manage environmental and social impacts? Content: • Status: what we know/need • Identification of Obstacles • R+D Requirements Dr. Th. Mégel GEOWATT AG, CH-Zürich ENGINE Launching Conference, 13-15 th February 06, F-Orléans
Status: what we know/need EGS-PMDA Chapters: Handbook developed under IEA-GIA, Annex III Project planning • Principal milestones • Data Matrix: Data requirement • Task Matrix: First point of data need • (EXCEL) Generic project Register of suppliers (EXCEL) Index of Suppliers Sources of Know-how Collected Experiences • Databases (ACCESS) • Information to project documents and data • Fenton Hill • Rosemanowes • Soultz-sous-Forêts EGS literature database (EndNote) Bibliography http://www.iea-gia.org/
Identification of Obstacles Fact 1: R+D activities for EGS since over 35 years. Fact 2: Still no commercial EGS power plant worldwide. Will we have commercial EGS power plants in 35 years? Obstacles: • Financially not attractive ?! • Too risky with regard to environmental andsocial impacts ?! R+D Requirements
Identification of Obstacles The economical rules are simple...: Production costs Market (Politics) Production Costs < + Investment costs + Operating costs < + € / year MWh / year € / MWh € / MWh Minimising Maximising Minimised until Maximised until R+D Requirements
Identification of Obstacles Phases of an EGS life cycle Concept Exploration Development Production Abandonment ? • General regional • planning: • technical • political • financial • environmental • Pilot borehole • Stimulation tests • Production modelling • Inj./Prod boreholes • Intensive stimulation • Production tests • Surface installations • Power/Heat production: • Maintenance If no re-investment for this site: Deconstruction Milestones Site selected Feasibility of EGS at site demonstrated Installations and reservoir ready for production Production lifetime reached
Identification of Obstacles Concept phase Data matrix (EGS-PMDA): Information and data required for each project phase Exploration phase Development/Production/Aban. phase
Identification of Obstacles R+D required for... C Exp D Production A Minimising Investment Maximising Production Site selected Feasibility evaluated
Identification of Obstacles C Exp D Production A Feasibility evaluated GO - NO GO ? Investment High risk phase Low risk phase Principal obstacle: High risk money is expensive The GO - NO GO decision must be taken as early as possible ! R+D required to minimise costs by ... • shortening of the high risk phase • reduction of the high risk investment • limiting impacts (social/ environ.)
R+D required to... • maximise production • guarantee production Identification of Obstacles C Exp D Production A Feasibility evaluated GO - NO GO ? Return of investment Principal need: Production must be stable on a sufficient level to cover all investments and operating costs
R+D Requirements Key task: • Technical productivity enhancement • Technical permeability enhancement near-borehole domain + reservoir domain ! ! Major problem so far: At all EGS R+D projects the success was always coupled on an expected productivity for future production. Hence the systematic development of stimulation techniques was difficult. But this is what is needed! Extended, systematic stimulation/enhancement R + D programme for different techiques: • mechanical • chemical • others...new...
R+D Requirements Extended, systematic stimulation/enhancement R + D programme Tasks: Methods: A Identification of physical/chemicalprocesses of permeability enhancement B Identification of leading parametersfor each stimulation method C Productivity as a function of leading parameters D What combination of subsurface parametersdo we find in Europe? E Which combination of parameters excludesuccessful enhancement? F Are there limits of permeability enhancementfor given subsurface conditions? G Can a limited seismic magnitude be guaranteedfor given conditions? H ... • I Stimulation R+D tests in existing boreholes,not necessarily deep! • II Stimulation R+D tests in new boreholes,not necessarily deep! • III Laboratory test • different rock types • different stress regimes • different methods (mechanical, chemical) • different fracture fillings • sites with no limits for massive tests ! • IV Professionally managed, firmly concerted • V ...
Conclusions If EGS power plants shall become commercial, then...: • Production must cover all capital costs • Either the production is such that an extended exploration phase- including a lot of failures - can be financed, or the production can be predicted early in a projects life cycle • Production must become predictable for conditions at a given site • Production is based on stimulation/enhancement techniques • Therefore: Enhanced permeability for given conditions and technique used must become predictable Extended, systematic stimulation/enhancement R + D programme