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An Observation and Analysis System to Support Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies

An Observation and Analysis System to Support Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies . 17 November 2009 James Butler NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. Outline. Global Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Today An Emerging Need – Emission Reduction

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An Observation and Analysis System to Support Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies

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  1. An Observation and Analysis System to Support Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies 17 November 2009 James Butler NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

  2. Outline • Global Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Today • An Emerging Need – Emission Reduction • Verifying the Outcome of Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies • Observing and Modeling Challenges

  3. Global Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Structure • Tools we have • WMO GAW framework • SAG, GAWSIS, GAWTEC • Experts’ Meetings • WDC, CCL, WCC for GHGs • 152 sites report GHG data to WDC • Products supported • WDC products & national network products (e.g., NOAA, CSIRO, EU) • WMO reports and pubs • GHG bulletin • CarbonTracker, CarbonTracker- Asia, CarbonTracker-EU, Other reanalyses • Customers • Scientists • IPCC • National Assessments • Educators • General public (e.g., NGOs, press, etc.)

  4. Data sets & Visual displays (variable) Global trends (monthly) Globalview, (annual) IADV (daily) AGGI (annual) CarbonTracker (annual) Stewardship Products Services DATA Creativity, Analysis

  5. An Emerging Global Challenge • Society is advancing efforts to manage and reduce emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases • Mitigation efforts will vary by nation, region, & emission sector (energy, industry, etc.), and will be diverse in their approach • Large-scale emission reduction approaches (e.g., international, national, state) require independent, scientific verification of the outcome of policies implemented • Stratospheric Ozone • Acid Rain • Air Quality • The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, the number and types of players, and the number of GHGs make this a significant challenge for GHG emission reduction

  6. How will Society Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emmissions?? We don’t know . . . but . . 100 Enhance System Maintain System Develop System Establish Baselines Percent of 2010 Emissions Critical Verif ication Period 50 Fine Grid, Robust Verification 20 Time

  7. Verification: Providing Objective, Science-based Information to Support Policy & Implementation International Agreements Reliable, trusted information will help guide policy decisions at the highest levels Will inform decisions regarding needs for adjustments or amendments to existing agreements Will provide the information necessary to ensure a globally successful effort National Laws National policies to balance GHG emission reduction efforts or offsets will require periodic verification of their outcome GHG information specific to regions and economic sectors can ensure continuance or expansion of strategies that are working and aid in adjusting those that are not Inventory Validation Reliable GHG information will help inform inventory reporting and measurements Can help improve national inventories Can help inform the design and evaluation of mitigation strategies GHG trading markets With or without trading, carbon and other GHGs will acquire considerable value Independent outcome verification would help investors be secure in their investments Would ensure that the goal of GHG trading would stay on target

  8. Carbon Crucible – The Future Demands New and Expanded Approaches • Increased Observations • Improved Transport Models • Enhanced Reanalysis

  9. Integration and Product Development (Reanalysis) Atmospheric Measurements “Land” exchange Oceanic Measurements Emission Inventories Surface Aircraft Satellite Mapping Satellite Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes Deep Ocean Surface Ocean

  10. Surface-based & In-situ Networks NOAA CarboEurope TCCON FluxNet WMO Global Atmospheric Watch

  11. Satellites FTIR Q-C Lasers Sampling, Analysis, Calibration Tall Towers Cooperative sampling In situ sampling World calibration scale Automated flask analysis Light Aircraft Portable flask packages

  12. Learning from Long Term Records • A call for sustained, continuous measurements of greenhouse gases • A warning of the importance of maintaining an on-going war on measurement bias

  13. For Regional Scale Resolution and Lower Uncertainty . . . • More Observations (x 10?) • Atmosphere • Ocean • Terrestrial • Satellites • Improved Instrumentation • Improved Modeling to Serve Smaller Footprints • Transport (÷ 10?) • Boundary Layer Understanding • Assimilation, Inversion, Diagnosis • Prediction • Enhanced Computing Capacity QA/QC, Data Management

  14. Questions? “Carbon Weather” January (net CO2emission) Long-term Observations July (net CO2 uptake) CarbonTrackerTM 14

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