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Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC

Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC. 2005 IHC Conference, Jacksonville, FL Robert Tuleya, Weixing Shen, S. Gopalkrishnan, N. Surgi, and H.Pan. JHT sponsored. Project Goals and Emphasis. EMC interested in upgrading the GFDL model through implementing GFS physics packages.

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Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC

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  1. Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC 2005 IHC Conference, Jacksonville, FL Robert Tuleya, Weixing Shen, S. Gopalkrishnan, N. Surgi, and H.Pan JHT sponsored

  2. Project Goals and Emphasis EMC interested in upgrading the GFDL model through implementing GFS physics packages. Establish baseline of skill for WRF development Begin transition of Hurricane model from GFDL to WRF EMC, GFDL and URI collaborate and rely on one another for their respective areas of expertise

  3. JHT tasks at EMC/NCEP • Implement NOAH Land Surface model • Install and Implement bulk microphysics packages into the GFDL model (Ferrier scheme) • Develop proto-type Hurricane WRF

  4. Coupled GFDL-LSM ran for ~30 historic cases and ~40 cases in 2004 with ocean couplingLSM coupled to GFDL leads to track degradation LSM worse

  5. Breakdown in ridge leads to increased anomalous northward movement of Jeanne in coupled GFDL-LSM heights too low GFDL moves Jeanne north!!

  6. Coupled GFDL-LSM appears to have more accurate thermal field ….but ??? Improvements with LSM

  7. Installation & evaluation of bulk microphysics • Code implemented with options for Ferrier or Lin schemes • Several cases run • Weaker storms • Track degradation?? • High computational overhead • Chose to increase GFDL resolution instead for 2005 • Run microphysics with new proposed high resolution model in parallel this season

  8. Development of the Hurricane WRF prototype System at EMC • Design of the prototype system for HWRF • 2004 preliminary HWRF forecasts • Future plans

  9. Hurricane Forecast System Storm information NHC storm message Position domain model initial & boundary conditions Wrf si Wrf real Wrf model Model integration Model hurricane output products Synoptic fields for many variables Create file for track, intensity, etc

  10. HWRF features • Uses WRF NMM dynamic core • Initial condition options • Current or historical cases • GFS or GFDL initial conditions • HWRF forecast/analysis cycle • Physics options • Eta model physics • Transitioning to GFDL(GFS) physics

  11. GFS…………..GFDL

  12. Additional HWRF features • Requires grib input of initial conditions • replaced by analysis cycle • Uses wrf binary and netcdf files • Rotated-E NMM grid … a bit awkward • WRF SI…a slow, big, generalized interpolator • Netcdf WRF output on native model grid • HWRF post • Uses EMC post utilities to interpolate to ‘A’ grid on pressure levels • Creates synoptic fields at ~ model resolution • EMC post output grids in grib format • Creates ‘atcf_unix’ file to track storm location, intensity, and extent • More output products to be developed • Tracker software to create storm temporal forecast information • May be part of model run or done in post in/out of house • ‘tracker’ becoming a misnomer since intensity and storm structure also analyzed • Usually requires temporal data near surface, 850mb and 500mb • Usually multi-variable analysis…vorticity, U, V, T, etc. • EMC uses scheme by Tim Marchok (GFDL)

  13. 2004 preliminary HWRF forecasts • Run at least one storm per day (00utc) • >120 uniform resolution cases • ~20km resolution with 42 GFDL levels • System found to be quite robust with few if any non-user failures • Started with eta-physics, GFS initial condition • A work in progress !!

  14. Preliminary HWRF results

  15. HWRF Track Verification

  16. HWRF Agenda • An active start for HWRF ! • Migrate to improved initial condition • Migrate to GFDL-type physics + microphysics • Begin forecast verification & analysis • Initiate moveable, nested HWRF • Upcoming season ..nested runs • Upcoming season … Forecast/analysis cycle

  17. HWRF idealized nested caseparent nested

  18. Additional HWRF products Sfc Wind & Rainfall Requires wrf output at shorter time intervalPuts strains on distributed software designNew products needed??

  19. Collaborate with GDFL and URI to upgrade GFDL physics… microphysics, lsm, surface layer Can physics upgrades be made without degrading track while improving intensity and structure ??? Upgrade and evaluate physics….surface layer, lsm, microphysics, radiation Continue parallel HWRF runs…. forecast/analysis cycle ….initiate moveable, nested HWRF Compare with GFDL and other models Summary & PlansGFDL…………..HWRF

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