CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVEN BY THE OCEAN – NOT HUMANS

1. CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVEN BY THE OCEAN – NOT HUMANS by William M. Gray Colorado State University

2. POLITICS • A great Anthropogenic (human-induced) Global Warming(AGW) hoax is being played on the people of the world. • Scientific objectivity on this topic has long ago been suspended. • IPCC has been politicized – it’s predictions are not believable.

3. SHOULD HAVE BEEN Government Funding AGW Advocates AGW Skeptics Debate and Synthesis (NO MEDIA) Balanced Statement to Media

4. WHAT HAPPENED TREMENDOUS FUNDING! Government Funding NO FUNDING! MEDIA AGW Skeptics AGW Advocates MEDIA Unrealistic Alarmism CAP & TRADE

5. Popular Textbooks ∆ Temperature from CO2 being doubled by the end of the 21st century

6. WHOLE TROPIC ENERGY BUDGET (W/m2) 30oN-30oS; 0-360 ANNUAL AVERAGE Net Alb Solar Net OLR OLR + Alb. Net Rad. 399 254 101 355 Top of Atmos. Atm. Alb (81) 318 44 IR Rain Net Atm. Excess 57 114 254 7 + 22 +83 Sfc. Alb 20 Atm. Rad. Loss IR IR 235 Net IR Rain 22 −114 Sfc. 215 402 459 57 114 Sen. Heat Solar Net Ocean Excess +22 158 (2 X CO2) − (1 X CO2) = 3.7 Net Rad.

7. “The Holy Grail for most scientists is not truth but research grants. And the global warming scare has produced a huge downpour of money for research. Any mystery why so many scientists claim some belief in global warming?” By John Ray (Ph.D. from Australia)

8. Washington Times – 20 July ‘09

9. TALK SUMMARY • GCMs give way too much global warming (none of them should be taken seriously) • Deep ocean circulation changes are the primary driver of climate change

10. CO2 GREENHOUSE HYPOTHESIS 2o GCMs 36o 0 1 x CO2 At most ~ 0.5oC warming – 0.5oC 2 x CO2 Reality 2 x CO2 3o 2o 1 x CO2 0 0 CO2 H2O

11. 2-3% (Models 5-6%) 2 x CO2 Rain CO2 Rain 2 x CO2 CO2 Global Models Reality INFLUENCE OF SMALL AMOUNT OF EXTRA RAIN Reduced Radiation Energy to Space Enhanced Radiation Energy to Space WARMING COOLING

12. 4o 3oC WHAT GLOBAL MODELS SAY 3o 2oC 2o Global Warming oC 1oC 1o ∆ Feedback (vapor + clouds) NET GLOBAL WARMING CO2 (Doubling) 0o 2o EXPECTED REALITY 1oC 1o CO2 (Doubling) 0.5oC Global Warming oC 0o AT MOST -1o 0.5oC -2o

13. HANSEN – early model Changes for a doubling of CO2 + 50% + 6% Pressure (hPa) Pressure (hPa) Δq ΔRH Change in specific humidity (%) Change in relative humidity (%)

14. 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 400 mb ( ~ 7.5 km altitude) Specific Humidity Yearly Average Standardized Anomalies for 90oN-90oS, 0-360

15. JAMES HANSEN

16. OLR 238 (W/m2) OPTICAL DEPTH 234 230 226 Emission Level q+ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Evap. +

17. Northern Hemisphere SUMMER Areas of Rain Extra Areas of Rain

18. WHOLE TROPIC ENERGY BUDGET (W/m2) 30oN-30oS; 0-360 ANNUAL AVERAGE Net Alb Solar Net OLR OLR + Alb. Net Rad. 399 254 +3.7 (257.3) 101 355 3.7 Top of Atmos. Atm. Alb (81) 2xCO2 318 44 IR Rain Net Atm. Excess 57 114 254 + 22 +83 Sfc. Alb 20 +1.1 (58.1) +2.2 (116.2) +0.4 Atm. Rad. Loss 235 Net IR Rain 22 −114 3.7 2xCO2 Sfc. 215 57 114 Sen. Heat Solar Net Ocean Excess +22 158 (2 X CO2) − (1 X CO2) = 3.7 Net Rad.

19. 3.7 1.3 70 78 78 148 ENERGY INVOLVED (Watts/m2) Daily water vapor replacementrate is over a million times faster than the rate of CO2 buildup ATMOSPHERIC CONDENSATION SFC EVAPORATION 2009 SFC RAINFALL CO2 (double) ATM. EVAP CO2 150 yrs 230 yrs

20. NIPCC (2009) Hansen Talk

21. NEW GLOBAL DATA SETS 1950 Reanalysis Data 2009 Albedo OLR 1984 2004 ISCCP Data Schwartz 2006-2009

22. Net Radiation Energy to Space Albedo IR IR (IR+Albedo) (IR+Albedo) Albedo Alb Alb Alb Alb IR IR IR MORE RAIN LESS RAIN Schwartz & Gray 2009

23. Net Radiation Energy to Space WHOLE TROPICS IR CHANGES FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION (IR+Albedo) Albedo

24. WHAT HAPPENED?

25. The Ascendancy of the Religion of Numerical Modeling and the loss of Meteorological Judgment and Reality.

26. EDUCATION OF GOVERNMENT FUNDERS OF RESEARCH GRANTS

28. OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION LATENT HEAT FLUX SENSIBLE HEAT AND POTENTIAL ENERGY FLUX ABSORBED SOLAR RADIATION NET ENERGY BALANCE SUBSURFACE HEAT STORAGE THERMAL INERTIA OCEAN HEAT FLUX TEMPERATURE Flow diagram for climate modeling, showing feedback loops. From Robock (1985).

29. NUMBERS VIRTUAL WORLD FORECASTERS REAL WORLD FORECASTERS

30. Funding Publication M M M Reality Barrier Real Climate World M M M M Public Downward Chaos & Alarmism

31. ANY SCIENTIST WHO WOULD BELIEVE A CLIMATE MODEL SHOULD HAVE THEIR HEAD EXAMINED!!

32. WHAT SHOULD BE DONE?

33. MULTI-MONTH STUDY GROUPS(Scientists-Engineers with NO Vested Interest in Global Warming) 25 Person Study Group 25 Person Study Group Talks and papers by both pro- and-con global warming specialists REPORT REPORT 25 Person Study Group 25 Person Study Group REPORT REPORT 25 Person Study Group 25 Person Study Group REPORT REPORT

34. What is the major cause of Global Temperature Change?

35. H H 3 1 2 X X Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)

36. Variations in the Global Deep Ocean Circulation Driven by Variation of Salinity (The Salt Oscillator)

37. SALINITY SURFACE SALINITY 500 METERS

38. 160oW 20oE HIGH SALT HIGH SALT

40. SINKING EVAP H EVAP SINKING

41. THC SAS SAS

42. DEEP OCEAN DRIVEN CLIMATE CHANGE SOLAR COOLING STRONG MOC Global Cooling (more upwelling plus more rain) S. Pole Eq. N. Pole SOLAR Less COOLING WEAK MOC Globe Warming (less upwelling and less rain) N. Pole S. Pole Eq.

43. I DISCOUNT: • Solar and/or sunspot changes • Volcanic activity • Cosmic rays • Aerosols • Other factors As primary causes of the last century global climate changes.

44. THC Strong THC Weak

45. SSTA SLPA

46. N. Atlantic SSTA THC STRONG STRONG WEAK WEAK

48. FAST SLOW FAST SLOW Thermohaline Circulation Rate of Salt Buildup from (E-P) - River = 0 Salt Anomaly (S1) (S1) (S1)

49. SINKING NORTH ATLANTIC and OFF-SHORE ANTARCTICA UPWELLING SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OCEAN WATER ~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~ Sfc. 1 km SINKING (0-3oC) 2 km 3 km 0 10oC 0 10oC 20oC 30oC

50. Global Oceans MOC THC SAS + = Meridional Overturning Circulation Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Surrounding Antarctic Subsidence