Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy

1. Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy

2. Ethiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025 GDP, billion USD Agriculture Industry Services 147 Key transitions ~10% p.a. 29% • Diminishing weight of agriculture from 42% to 29% of GDP • Migration from agriculture jobs to services and industry • Reaching of middle-income status before 2025 32% 51 30 39% 2010 2015 GTP 2025 projected Population mln (mid-year) 79 89 116 GDP/cap. In USD 378 565 1.271 Source: GoE GTP; EDRI

3. Why……? • Ethiopia will see further warming in all seasons of between 0.7°C and 2.3°C by the 2020s and of between 1.4°C and 2.9°C by the 2050s. This warming will be associated with heat waves and higher evapo-transpiration. • More regular heavy rainfall events are expected and this is likely to result in increased flooding. • Recent studies indicate, unless steps to build resilience are effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP growth by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year.

4. Why • Justifications for developing a green economy : • natural resource assets • global carbon finance • co-benefits (for health, wellbeing, economic growth and natural resource conservation) • Ethiopia is well positioned to become a regional and global leader in low carbon growth which will have a legacy and commercial benefit long into the future. • huge low carbon potential – (ex: rich in forests, hydro, solar, wind & geothermal energy

5. BAU emissions development Mt CO2e per year CAGR1 Percent t CO2e/capita Drivers and rationale If a typical development path were followed, emissions would increase from 150 Mt to 400 Mt (2010 to 2030) 3.0 • Livestock: Increase in cattle population and other species (doubling from 2010-30) • Soil: Increase in cultivated land (crops production) and synthetic fertilizer 400 185 4.4% • Average growth of cropland (estimated to reach 3.9% per year) • Increase in population leading to higher fuelwood consumption Agriculture +167% 1.8 • Switch of remaining fossil fuel capacity to 100% clean/renewable generation for on-grid (2014) 2.6% 90 Forestry 150 • Increase in passenger-km traveled projected based on elasticity to real GDP • Increase in ton-km of cargo transported based on elasticity to real GDP - Power 5 11.2% 40 Transport • Cement production (steep increase in GTP, thereafter approach to MIC-level) • Establishment and scale-up of industries in textile, steel, fertilizer, mining and others 15.7% 55 70 Industry 3.9% Buildings 5 10 5 • Buildings and solid/liquid waste emissions 2010 2030 – BAU 1 Compound average growth rate

6. Focus CRGE Green Economy Developing a green economy combines economic development and abatement • Combining eco-nomic growth with low GHG emissions, e.g. • Sustainable land use via efficient agriculture • Sequestration in forests • Expansion of renewable energy • Resource efficient advanced technologies Development Green Economy Resilience Abatement Green economy can help to avoid lock-in in old technology, unsustainable growth and land use Source: CRGE

7. Agriculture – Improving crop and livestock practices • Reduce defores-tation by agricul-tural intensification and irrigation of degraded land • Use lower-emitting techniques • Improve animal value chain • Shift animal mix • Mechanize draft power • Forestry – Protecting and growing forests as carbon stocks • Reduce demand for fuelwood via efficient stoves • Increase seques-tration by affores-tation/reforestation and forest mana-gement • Power – Deploying renewable and clean power generation • Build renewable power generation capacity and switch-off fossil fuel power generation • Export renewable power to substitute for fossil fuel power generation abroad • Industry, transport and buildings – Using advanced technologies • Improve industry energy efficiency • Improve produc-tion processes • Tighten fuel efficiency of cars • Construct electric rail network • Substitute fossil fuel by biofuels • Improve waste management The strategy for a green economy is based on four pillars Middle income country in 2025 Green economy strategy Source: CRGE

8. Agriculture Power Industry Forestry Transport Others The CRGE outlines how Ethiopia will reduce 255 mtCO2 per year while ensuring economic growth t CO2e/capita Emissions per year1, Mt CO2e 400 185 -64% Additional abatement potential of ~19 Mt CO2e from exporting green power to regional markets 130 10 150 90 20 5 5 40 145 55 70 5 10 5 Agri- culture Forestry Trans- port Industry Buil- dings Green Economy 2030 2010 2030 BAU 1.8 3.0 1.1 1 Rounded numbers 2 Currently estimated emissions form buildings and waste

9. Challenges  • MRV – of the activities outlined under the CRGE • MRV of financing the CRGE activities • Setting baselines for reducing emissions and vulnerability reductions

10. Thank you