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Simulation of Infectious Diseases Using Agent-Based Versus System Dynamics Models

Simulation of Infectious Diseases Using Agent-Based Versus System Dynamics Models. Omar Alam. Problem definition. People contract diseases. Infected people can can infect healthy people. How to study this infection dynamics?. Problem definition. People contract diseases.

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Simulation of Infectious Diseases Using Agent-Based Versus System Dynamics Models

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  1. Simulation of Infectious Diseases Using Agent-Based Versus System Dynamics Models Omar Alam

  2. Problem definition People contract diseases. Infected people can can infect healthy people. How to study this infection dynamics?

  3. Problem definition People contract diseases. Infected people can can infect healthy people. How to study this infection dynamics? Simulation of infection models

  4. Solution! AB: Statecharts FSD using CBD

  5. Epidemic models Source: Deterministic Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Theory and Models. Trottier et al.

  6. SIR model Source: Deterministic Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Theory and Models. Trottier et al.

  7. SIR model Kermack-Mckendric model Used to study plaque in London (1665-1666), and Bombay in 1906. Cholera in London 1865

  8. SIR model Source: http://blog.iseesystems.com/stella-ithink/limits-to-growth/

  9. SIR model Beta: infection rate Alpha: infection period Source: http://jsxgraph.uni-bayreuth.de/wiki/index.php/Epidemiology:_The_SIR_model

  10. SIR model

  11. SIR model Initial population SM1 SM2 SN S Initial infected I IA IN Infection rate RM Recovery rate R

  12. SIR model Population: 1000, Initial infection 4, Infection period: 3, infection rate 0.2

  13. Statecharts approach

  14. Statecharts approach: architecture

  15. Statecharts approach: architecture Controller

  16. Statecharts approach: architecture Creates, initializes, and changes status Controller

  17. Statecharts approach: architecture Creates, initializes, and changes status Controller Updates location

  18. Statecharts approach: results recovered susceptible infected Population: 1000, initial infection 4, infection period 3

  19. Statecharts approach: results Population: 500, initial infection 2, infection period 3

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