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Sunny with a Chance. Elwynn Taylor Weather Impacts on Agriculture Urban- AgAcademy Ag-101. Geislers , 3 miles East. Prairie & Climate. The Wealth of the Earth Highest Productivity Known Highest Carbon Sequestration 35% Grass, 35% Legume, 30% other . 40% Corn, 30% Soybean.
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Sunny with a Chance Elwynn Taylor Weather Impacts on Agriculture Urban-AgAcademy Ag-101 Geislers, 3 miles East
Prairie & Climate The Wealth of the Earth Highest Productivity Known Highest Carbon Sequestration 35% Grass, 35% Legume, 30% other
Something like our 8N • Our food acres increased 50%
Reduction of farm land • Fuel market competes with feed market
of citrus’, sandwiches, & climates change In 1968 cooling was a major concern, so was population (Paul Ehrlich). “The greatest threat is our energy hunger, I ordered a lunch delivered, from 1400 miles away.” Dr. Hyrum Johnson
Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy Consumption and Income are Linked
Bio-Fuel Reduce Atmospheric Carbon? Convert coal to liquid fuel? Economy: Fuel or Food? Alternatives: Hydro, Wind, Solar, Nuclear
Grain or Fiber? • Improved yield • Maize U. S. yield 1960-2009 x3.0 • Rice World yield 1960-2009 x2.3 • Rice Philippines yield x3.1 • Rice U. S. yield x2.3 I S U
2030 200 BPA 1979 100 BPA 1956 50 BPA I S U
The Crop Trend Trends change Trend & Volatility Trend is Technology + Climate Change Volatility is Weather + Climate Cycles
Increased Stream Flow:Increased # of Flood-prone Years 2 4 7 1 3 6 9 8 5 10
COLD WARM Warm Winters Cold Winters
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/weekly-sst.phphttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/weekly-sst.php
La Niña Outlook 9Mar 2012 • 30% Chance La Niña persists into Summer • 60% Chance El Niño begins immediately • 10% Chance of Neutral ? ? • Minimal chance of Neutral SOI • 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $6.60 • 60% Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $5.00 • 10% Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15 • $ from Wisner 2/9/2012 • http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35 Based on the evolution of recent atmosphere-ocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from 50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña conditions into the upcoming summer. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a switch to El Niño by mid-2012. … (Klaus.Wolter@noaa.gov), (303) 497-6340 Today DEC corn $5.60 May corn $6.50
Madden-Julian • Contributing to the weather today • wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/
Outlook • Warm through Sat, then not as warm • Thunder storms possible • Then through 24 Mar:
Based on current atmosphere-ocean conditions, I believe the odds for this La Niña event to continue right through early summer (June-July 2012) are just about 50%. Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009 ended up as a three-year event, so I would put the odds for this to occur in 2012-13 at 40% right now. • http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/