Motivation for the testbed: improving prediction of environmental processes Design of this testbed

1. A Super-Regional Modeling Testbed for Improving Forecasts of Environmental Processes for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico CoastsDon Wright, SURAPrincipal InvestigatorRich Signell, USGS Technical Advisory and Evaluation Group Chair

2. Outline • Motivation for the testbed: improving prediction of environmental processes • Design of this testbed • Year 1 products • Future work

3. IOOS Budget add-on (FY10) • “$4,000,000 is for a competitive extramural regional test bed… to understand, predict, and mitigate the consequences of both extreme events and chronic conditions in the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf regions.  Such a test bed should include no less than 20 academic partners and research institutions to guarantee it is multi-disciplinary and inclusive of community-modeling”

4. Improving Forecasts of Coastal Environmental Processes • Factors: open boundary conditions, surface and river forcing conditions, enhanced physics, adjustable parameters, data assimilation, numerics, amount of data assimilated, skill of modelers(!), vertical and horizontal resolution, coupling to wave and met models. • “Which model is better?” is not the right question. What factors in the simulation resulted in a better solution? How much better? At what cost?

5. Defining Improvement • To measure improvement for environmental processes, we need to define skill metrics for specific environmental processes and often for specific region • Inundation, search and rescue, deep oil spills, navigation, hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, diver operations, alternative energy siting, beach erosion, regional impact of climate change all require different skill metrics • Operational centers need community help in this process – too broad for the Federal Backbone!

6. A Common Cyberinfrastructure for Model Data The ocean community needs a common cyberinfrastructure to access, analyze and display data from the different models: each model currently has their own standards and toolsets Structured Grids Unstructured Grid 10 nodes 5x5 6x3 Variety of Stretched Vertical Coordinates

7. A Testbed Framework for Coastal Ocean Models • Build a common infrastructure to enable access, analysis and visualization of all coastal ocean model data produced by Federal Backbone & RAs • Develop skill metrics and assess models in three different regions and dynamical regimes, to ensure a robust and powerful infrastructure • Identify factors for transition to operations • Build stronger relationships between academia and operational centers through collaboration

8. IOOS Testbed Team Structure 8members 25 members Don Wright, SURA Rich Signell, USGS Doug Levin, NOAA/IOOS Liz Smith, SURA EoinHowlett, ASA 20 members 21 members 24 members Carl Friedrichs, VIMS John Harding, MSU Rick Luettich, UNC-CH

9. Data Interoperability Model

10. Curvilinear Horz., Stretched Vertical Grid Curvilinear orthogonal horizontal coordinates Stretched surface and terrain following vertical coordinates

11. Stovepiped Model Data Access The GoMOOS Nowcast/Forecast Circulation Model (University of Maine)

12. Comparing Models with Data in Matlab Model 1: UMASS-ECOM Model 2: UMAINE-POM Data: SST 2008-Sep-08 07:32

13. 14 Different Ocean Forecast Models Spanning CONUS Waters in IDV

14. Mapping services and browse application • Cyberinfrastructure (CI)All Regions – All Teams • Extending CI from OGC, Unidata and others (NOAA DMIT, USGS CDI) to support unstructured grids, and add functionality • Web Access via OpenDAP w/CF • Unidata Common Data Model/NetCDF Java Library API • Distributed search capability • Browser based map viewer (WMS) • Toolbox for scientific desktop analysis • All components standards-based! Search services Analyze in scientific desktop application

15. Inundation Extra-tropical – Gulf of MaineTropical – Gulf of Mexico- 4 models: 3 unstructured grid +1 structured grid- Coupled wave-storm surge-inundation (TWL)- Consistent forcing, validation and skill assessment using existing IMEDS tool • Extensive observational data sets for historical storms Ike, Rita and Gustav in standard formats • SURA has provided supercomputer resources Extratropical Grid Tropical Grids for Galveston Bay

16. Estuarine Hypoxia Chesapeake Bay 1. Estuary: – 5 Hydrodynamic models – 3 Biological (DO) models – 2004 data from 28 CBP stations – Comparing T, S, max (dS/dz), DO via target diagrams 2. Shelf: OBCs 5 hydrodynamic models Dissolved Oxygen Stratification (dS/Dz) Models doing better on oxygen than stratification!

17. Shelf Hypoxia Gulf of MexicoHydrodynamic & biogeochemical hindcastcomparisons of hypoxia model (stand alone) coupled to 3 different Gulf of Mexico hydrodynamics models Evaluation of two shelf hypoxia formulations (NOAA & EPA)

18. IOOS Testbed Web Site

19. Testbed Year 1 Products • Foundation of a cyberinfrastructure framework for search, access and display of all Federal Backbone & RA model data, via browser and scientific desktop application • Skill metrics and identification of key performance factors and cost for three important dynamical regimes and environmental issues • CONOPS for transition from research to operations • Improved communication between research and operations

20. Future Work for the Testbed • Find a way to sustain the testbed activities • Expand to more regions and problems • Examine more factors (e.g. data assimilation) • Build out the cyberinfrastructure • Conduct training in the community

21. Benefits to IOOS Regions • Improved infrastructure for comparing models and data • Framework for evaluating models • Clearer understanding of the pathway from research to operations • Better understanding of the benefits of regional modeling activities at the operational centers • Potential for testbed activity in yourregion