Atmospheric Smart Climatology: Data, Methods, Products, & Operational Implementation Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postg

1. Atmospheric Smart Climatology: Data, Methods, Products, & Operational Implementation Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) murphree@nps.edu Brief Presented at Atmospheric Smart Climatology Working Group Meeting CNMOC, 25 January 2008 Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

2. Co-Authors • Tom Murphree, NPS • Mark LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF • Adam Stepanek, Capt, USAF • Damon Vorhees, Capt, USAF • Joel Feldmeier, LCDR, USN • Chris Hanson, Capt, USAF • Sarah Moss, Capt, USAF • David Meyer, (USN retired), NPS • Katherine Twigg, Lt, Royal Navy, FNMOC • Bob Tournay, Capt, USAF • Christi Montgomery, LT, USN • Allon Turek, LCDR, USN • Bruce Ford (USN retired), Clear Science, Inc. • Paul Frederickson, NPS • Dave Smarsh, Col, USAF • Karl Pfeiffer, Lt Col, USAF • Chuck Wash, NPS • Jeff Lerner, FNMOC • NPS climatology course students • In Coordination and Collaboration with: • AFCCC/14WS, FNMOC/FNMOD, NAVO, ASW Directorate, PDC, USAFE, AFRICOM • Civilian climate research & operational climatology organizations Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

3. NPS Smart Climatology Program The NPS Smart Climatology program has four main components: 1. Education 2. Basic and Applied Research 3. Prototype Operational Product Development 4. Product Transitioning Materials for the NPS Modern Climatology and Advanced Climatology courses are available for downloading at the course web sites. Contact Tom Murphree for access. R&D reports from 2000 to present are available at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/. Note: The NPS Smart Climatology program precedes, and is not part of, the NRL RTP smart climatology project. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

4. NPS Smart Climatology Program Reports All reports available for downloading at: NPS Smart Climatology Reports http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

5. Outline • What is smart climo? • How is smart climo different from traditional climo? • Why is smart climo important to the military? • Is there a requirement for smart climo? • Who benefits from smart climo? • Are there tactical level payoffs to doing smart climo? • What does it take to do smart climo? • How should CNMOC attempt to do smart climo? • What partnerships are needed to do smart climo well? • What are the key first steps in doing smart climo? • What timeline should we set for doing smart climo? • What funding and other resources will be needed to do smart climo? Answers provided in this brief using atmospheric smart climatology examples, plus relevant lessons learned from oceanic smart climatology. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

6. What is Smart Climatology? • Smart climatology: State-of-the-science basic and applied climatology that directly supports DoD operations • Smart climatology involves the use of state-of-the-science: • Data sets • Data access & visualization tools • Statistical & dynamical analysis • Climate modeling • Climate monitoring • Climate prediction • Climate scale decision analysis tools • for risk assessment, mitigation, & exploitation Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

7. Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology b a Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology as provided by FNMOD. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Evaporation Duct Heights Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and operationally useful products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

8. Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology b a Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology after plotting in map form by NPS. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Evaporation Duct Heights Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and operationally useful products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

9. Smart Climatology Existing Navy Climatology No corresponding Navy climatologies of sea surface height or surface currents exist. a b 20 cm/s Sea surface heights (cm) and surface currents (0-50 m; cm/s) for July in RIMPAC region: (a) smart climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology (no Navy climatologies exist for these variables). Smart climatology developed from existing civilian 47-year global ocean reanalysis. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Sea Surface Heights and Surface Currents Smart climo uses existing civilian smart climatology data sets to describe the many atmospheric and oceanic variables that are not represented in existing Navy climatologies (e.g., precip over ocean, deep convection, wind driven mixing, ocean currents). Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

10. a b How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Upper Ocean T Smart Climatology Existing Navy Climatology Long term mean ocean T (C) for August for VS07 region from: (a) smart climatology at 5 m; and (b) from GDEM at 4 m. Smart climatology developed from existing civilian 47-year global ocean reanalysis. Smart climo uses state-of-the-science methods to develop more accurate depictions of the environment than available from traditional methods used to create existing military climatologies. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

11. Smart Climatology T (oC) Traditional Climatology year Surface T (oC), Iraq, Jul-Sep, 1969-2006. Note pronounced interannual variations and long term positive trend. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Long Term Fluctuations and Trends – Surface T, Iraq, Jul-Sep Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution of the climate system, and updates climate statistics accordingly. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

12. Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology T (oC) year SST (oC), East China Sea, Jul-Sep, 1969-2006. Note pronounced interannual variations and long term positive trend. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Long Term Fluctuations and Trends – SST, East China Sea, Jul-Sep Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution of the climate system, and updates climate statistics accordingly. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

13. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Long Term Trends – SST and RH, Pacific, Jan-Mar Figures show average change per year in SST (C) and RH (%) during 1970-2006. Largest changes correspond to a net change of +1.6 C in SST (East China Sea) and +20% in RH (IO - tropical Pacific) over last 37 years. These are substantial changes that need to be accounted for in providing METOC support (e.g., surface radar range predictions). Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution of the climate system, and updates climate statistics accordingly. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: tropical cyclone and electromagnetic smart climatology research project. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

14. Evaporation duct height anomalies (m) for Aug-Oct during positive phase of Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM). Smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Evaporation Duct Heights – Climate Anomaly Patterns Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology Not available Smart climo analyzes dominant modes of climate variability, especially relatively predictable variations, and accounts for those modes in operational products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

15. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Tropical Cyclone Activity – Climate Anomaly Patterns Schematic representation of western North Pacific TC formation sites, steering flow, and tracks during El Nino and La Nina periods. El Nino Smart climo monitors and applies the results from climate R&D to improve long range planning products. La Nina Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by B. Ford, LCDR, USN. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

16. Near Surface Currents Long Term Mean La Nina Anomalies a b 1 cm/s 3 cm/s Surface currents in Gulf of Oman during Nov-Mar: (a) long term mean currents and (b) current anomalies during La Nina periods. Based on 47-year global ocean reanalysis. Note reversal of currents in Gulf of Oman. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Existing civilian smart climatology data sets allow development of conditional climatologies that account for operationally significant deviations from long term means. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

17. Days 1-15 Days 20-35 High precip Low precip precip rate (mm/d) low high How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Short Term* Climate Prediction, Korean Precip, Jun-Sep Low tropical precip (left) is a predictor of high Korean precip (right) at leads of 5-20 days with 78% probability of detection. Reverse also holds true. Dynamics involve Rossby wave trains along subtropical jet. Smart climo uses statistical and dynamical analyses to assess and exploit predictability in the climate system and to build climate prediction systems. * Short term = one week to one year Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by B. Tournay, Capt, USAF. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

18. TC Formation Probabilities for 01-07 Oct 2006 10% 25% 40% 55% 70% Verifying observations of TC formation sites during 01-07 Oct 2006 Results shown are from NPS hindcast. Experimental forecasts in development at NPS. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Short Term Climate Prediction, TC Formation, Western North Pacific Analyses of climate scale relationships between large scale environment and TCs leads to short term climate predictions of TC activity. Smart climo invests to develop climate prediction systems. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer. See details in notes section of this slide. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

19. Surface Radar Detection Ranges Surface Radar Cutoff Frequencies a b (a) Surface radar detection ranges (km) based on NPS smart climatology for September. Values shown are long term means for September,for a C-band radar at 30 ft and detection threshold of 150 dB. (b) Cutoff frequencies (GHz) for surface radar for September. Based on application of existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses, and existing sensor performance aids. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Smart Climatological Sensor Performance Products Smart climatology uses advanced data sets and impacts models to create climate scale sensor performance products in formats that meet end user needs. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

20. Typical:October–November is the “short rains” season in the Horn of Africa, characterized by extensive cloud decks, showers and isolated, afternoon thunderstorms. For typical years in the Addis Ababa area, moderate impacts to collections and RQ1B operations are assessed in October and early November, improving to mostly favorable after the mid-November end of the rainy season. RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier are assessed as favorable overall, with occasional impacts from afternoon crosswinds and extreme afternoon temperatures exceeding operational thresholds. El Nino:A strong El Nino event would tend to increase showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity in October-November. ISR impacts will tend to worse than in the typical year. Assessment for ISR is moderate to occasionally unfavorable. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. La Nina:A strong La Nina event would tend to suppress showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during Oct-Nov. ISR impacts will tend to general improvement over typical years. Assessment for ISR is the same as for the typical year, but expect thunderstorm and shower frequency to decrease. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? Smart Climatological Sensor Performance Products Smart climatology puts state-of-the-science planning products in the hands of METOC personnel and end users. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by M. LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF. Key: 1. Cloud cover, 2. Precipitation, 3. Winds, 4. Temperature Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

21. How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional Climo? El Nino and La Nina Impacts on Military Operations, Taiwan, October Smart climatology puts state-of-the-science planning products in the hands of METOC personnel and end users. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project See details in notes section of this slide. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

22. Precip Rate Anomaly, 1-15Feb05 Aerial View Precip Fig mm/d Smart Climo Case Study – Precip Extremes in Southwest Asia Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan & Pakistan, 1-15 Feb 2005 • Precip, temp, snowmelt, & runoff anomalies had large operational impacts. • Almost no DoD climo products available or suitable for explaining, monitoring, or forecasting these anomalies or operational impacts. • Problem with DoD climo products even worse for ocean. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by D. Vorhees, Capt, USAF. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

23. Smart Climo Case Study – Precip Extremes in Southwest Asia Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precip and Temp in SWA Above Normal Precip and Temp L Below Normal Tropical Convection H • Typical low level anomaly pattern during above normal precip & temp in SWA. • Caused by climate variations and teleconnections (specific phases of El Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and/or North Atlantic Oscillation). • Climate variation reversal oppositeanomalies in SWA. • Climate variations predictable  SWA precip and temp predictable • Led to: Climate monitoring indices and forecasting systems based on climate variation analyses. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by D. Vorhees, Capt, USAF. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

24. Forecast Analysis Smart Climo Case Study – Precip Extremes in Southwest Asia Short Term Climate Prediction, Iraq Precip, Oct-Dec Analyses of climate scale relationships (left) lead to short term climate predictions (right). Hindcast for Oct-Dec 2002, during moderate El Nino event, shows high (low) probability of above (below) normal precip. Lead time: six weeks.Verifying observed precip was 28% above normal. Conclusion from many such analyses and forecasts: Short term climate forecasts of T and precip in Southwest Asia have useful skill, especially compared to traditional climo. Smart climo develops, tests, and makes climate prediction systems operational. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by C. Hanson, Capt, USAF, and S. Moss, Capt, USAF. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

25. Smart Climo Case Study – Precip Extremes in Southwest Asia Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by D. Vorhees, Capt, USAF. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

26. TC Formation Probabilities for 25 Jun - 01Jul 2006 10% 25% 40% 55% 70% Verifying observations of TC formation sites during 25 Jun - 01 Jul 2006 Results shown are from NPS hindcast. Experimental forecasts in development at NPS. Smart Climo Emerging Directions: Climate Prediction Short Term Climate Prediction, Tropical Convection, North Pacific Method for predicting TC formations being adapted for use in predicting tropical convection (OLR in color inset). Also being adapted for generating long lead predictions of TC intensities and tracks. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

27. Who’s Doing State-of-the-Science Climatology? * Status determined by assessment of overall, routine, operational climate support provided by AF and Navy (e.g., AFCCC, FNMOD, FNMOC, NAVO, OWSs, etc.), and by civilian organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, European agencies, industry, etc.). Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

28. Smart Climatology - Major Findings • Smart climatology has the potential to substantially improve climate support for warfighters. • The potential to make large improvements through short term climate prediction is especially high. • However, smart climo is not being done by DoD. • Thus, warfighters are not being given state-of-the-science climate support. • We need a course correction. We need to start doing smart climatology. • Operational implementation of smart climatology is possible within the next several months. • Smart climatology can contribute to meeting several of the goals in the CO’s guidance for 2008 (e.g., climate change, marine mammals, uncertainty, IUSS, warfighting focus, and workforce development goals). Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

29. Tier 3 Decision Layer Smart climatology based decision surfaces Tier 2 Performance Layer Smart climatological performance surfaces Tier 1 Environment Layer Smart climatological analyses & forecasts Observations Smart climatology data sets Satellites Fleet Data Initial and Boundary Conditions Smart Climatology and Battlespace on Demand Data and methods for generating smart climo products at all three tiers already exist. Now we must commit resources to developing these products. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

30. Align and Streamline: Get the environment right Present / Forecast / Ensembles S&T Develop the performance surface Visualize / Animate R&D Couple with Operations Research Asset/Sensor allocation Maneuver / Quantify Risk Acquisition Operations Smart Climatology and Battlespace on Demand Use smart climatology to get the environment right at long lead times. Build smart climatological performance surfaces for atmosphere and ocean. Streamline by building on existing smart climatology data, methods, and products. Use smart climatology to develop long lead decision aids (e.g., uncertainty assessments, risk assessment, and guidance on risk management, asset allocation, strategy, and tactics. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

31. KNOWLEDGE-CENTRIC WARFIGHTING FOCUSED Effectiveness Readiness Anti-Submarine Warfare Smart climatology can support all warfighting areas, at all planning levels. Shaping Naval Special Warfare increased emphasis Mine Warfare ISR Navigation maintain excellence Precise Time and Astrometry Fleet Operations increased efficiency Maritime Operations Smart climatology should be the foundation for all reachback cell and mission support center products. Aviation Operations FNMOC NAVO USNO Smart Climatology and Naval Oceanography Enterprise Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

32. Smart Climatology - CNMOC Leadership Support • Make smart climatology a priority for Naval Oceanography Enterprise. • Get climate R&D experts and operational climatology experts together with climatology end users to map out the way ahead. • Be efficient. Build on existing resources, especially civilian climatology resources. • Take a joint Navy-Air Force approach. Consider creating a joint smart climatology reachback center. • Get off to a fast start: Focus first on direct operational implementation ofexisting smart climatology data and methods. • Teach smart climo at all levels, and then give military and civilian analysts and forecasters the tools to do smart climo themselves. Don’t leave smart climo up to just the climo R&D experts. • Provide funding. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

33. Smart Climatology – Operational Implementation * Transition status determined by assessing availability of (1) substantial existing R&D prototype products and (2) operational products in civilian sector. For all elements, there are substantial products ready for transitioning, and there are additional products for which some level of additional R&D is needed. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

34. Smart Climatology - Recommended Directions • Develop smart climatology data access, analysis, and visualizationtoolset for use in METOC production and support centers. • Apply smart climatology methods to improve METOC analyses and forecasts, including: • climatological versions of Tier 1-3 products • climatology based improvements in existing Tier 1-3 products • Conduct more in-depth and quantitative comparisons of civilian reanalysis data sets with Navy atmospheric, oceanic, EM, and acoustic climatologies. Assess potential of reanalyses and other smart climatology data and methods to improve Navy climatologies. • Use operational analysis and modeling to evaluate ability of smart climatology to improve operational outcomes. • Develop online learning center on smart climatology and its Navy applications. • Create a smart climatology steering committee to help develop a coordinated and collaborative approach for improving military climatology. The next three slides summarize six proposed projects based on these recommended directions. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

35. Smart Climatology - Project Proposal Summaries • Smart Climatology Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization Toolset - Develop and deploy an unclassified, web-based, global smart climatology data access, analysis, and display application. Toolset will provide users with ability to access, analyze, and displays of 4-D (time and space) atmospheric, oceanic, EM, and acoustic variables based on reanalysis data sets, and variables derviable from those data sets. Toolset moduarized to allow expansion to other data sets (e.g., MODAS climatology, GDEM, full suite of atmospheric fields, other data sets under development). Goal: Toolset that can rapidly generates graphical analyses and displays of a wide range of climatological information. Primary users: analysts and forecasters. • Smart Climatology Analyses and Forecasts - Develop smart climatology analyses and forecasts of basic atmospheric, oceanic, EM, and acoustic environment for RIMPAC 08 and other high priority cases (each case defined primarily by time of year, location, and types of operations). Includes analyses and forecasts based on major conditional climatologies. Goal: state-of-the-science analyses and long lead forecasts geared for use by production center and mission support analysts and forecasters, and deploying forecasters. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

36. Smart Climatology - Project Proposal Summaries • Smart Climatology Comparative Analyses - Develop in-depth, quantitative comparative analysis of atmospheric, oceanic, EM, and acoustic climatologies based on: (a) smart climatology data and methods; and (b) Navy climatologies. Include assessment of strengths and weaknesses of Navy climatologies, and recommendations for rapidly improving climatological support. Investigate several regions and times of year. Examine potential impacts of smart climatology on METOC product suite, and the product generation process. Goal: Report that summarizes current status of climatological products and maps out and prioritizes options for improving products. • Smart Climatology Operational Impacts - Develop initial assessments of the operational impacts of smart climatology using operational analysis and modeling. Emphasize impacts of smart climatology on operational planning at lead times of weeks to months and longer. Investigate several operational scenarios and types of support. Build on on-going operational analysis and modeling R&D. Goal: Report that assesses the potential for smart climatology methods and products to reduce uncertainty, assess and manage environmental risks, and improve operational decisions and outcomes. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

37. Smart Climatology - Project Proposal Summaries • Smart Climatology Learning Center - Develop an online learning center for educating METOC personnel on smart climatology. Introduce users to smart climatology concepts, data sets, and analysis methods, and basic methods for developing smart climatology products. Teach state-of-the-science operational climatology of atmosphere and ocean in the context of military scenarios. Composed of self-paced, multimedia rich. Build on existing NPS climatology educational materials. Develop in coordination / collaboration with CNMOC PDC. Best developed in tandem with display application (project 1). • Smart Climatology Steering Committee - Organize a smart climatology steering committee to advise METOC leadership on best options for improving climatological support. Potential members include Navy, AF, and civilian personnel from CNMOC, OPNAV/N84, FNMOC, FNMOD, AFCCC, AFWA, NPS, NRL, civilian operational climatology centers, and universities. Meet twice a year. Present biannual and annual briefs and reports to METOC leadership. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

38. First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology Proposed Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization Tools User selections • Data source • Time period • Location • Basic variables • Derived variables • Display type (e.g., map, cross • section, 3-D, time series) • Analysis type (e.g., mulit-variable, • composite, difference, correlation • Conditional climatology constraints • (e.g., high winds, high seas, low • precip, EN, LN, MJO phase) • Climate forecast (e.g., +NAO, -IOZM, • high TC formation probability) • Operation type Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

39. Surface radar ranges in East China Sea in January one day after cold surge events ≥ 25 kts Range (nautical mi) Years Used in Composite 1954 1966 1968 1971 1973 1977 1983 1988 1993 1998 2004 2007 latitude longitude First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology Proposed Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization Tools Sample Output Products • Conditional climatologies • for AOR • Teleconnections to AOR • Operational impacts • assessments • Mission planning tools Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

40. First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology Proposed Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization Tools Intended Users • Mission planners • Staff officers • Forecasters • Atmospheric and oceanic analysts and forecasters • EM and acoustic analysts and forecasters • METOC personnel involved in mission/exercise planning • NPS students • Researchers • C-school instructors • C-school students • Estimated C-school class time required to train forecasters in effective use of smart climo interface: 4-8 hours. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

41. First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology Smart Climatology Analysis and Forecasting Process To implement smart climatology, METOC personnel need hands-on education and training. Process outlined here for providing smart climatological supportwas developed and tested by Navy and AF METOC officers and NPS faculty. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS Advanced Climatology course projects and thesis research by M. LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

42. Generating Smart Climatology Products Smart Conditional Climatology Smart Climatology Prediction In Situ Data Dynamic MODAS Apply smart climo data sets, and analysis and prediction methods. Less realistic Less expensive Easier to know at long lead times More realistic More expensive Harder to know at long lead times • Smart climo is relatively inexpensive, in part because it does not have to • be repeated in full for every new operation. • Smart climo can help focus, and help reduce the need for, and costs of • collecting and assimilating, near real time observations. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

43. Generating Smart Climatology Products • Proposal --- Based on NPS Climate Support Process * • Well before mission planning begins, develop background smart climo products using smart climo data and methods **. • When mission planning begins, assess the current state of climate system. If indicated by current state, develop updated smart climo products by using smart climo data and methods to adjust pre-planning smart climo. • Assimilate near real time observations (remote and in situ) into planning smart climo, according to resource availability and operational priorities. • * See NPS Smart Climatology site, especially LaJoie (2006), at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/ • ** Examples of Smart Climo Data and Methods • Application of reanalysis and other advanced data sets • Statistical and dynamical analyses of data • Statistical and dynamical climate modeling • Climate system monitoring • Statistical and dynamical climate forecasting Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

44. Outline • What is smart climo? • How is smart climo different from traditional climo? • Why is smart climo important to the military? • Is there a requirement for smart climo? • Who benefits from smart climo? • Are there tactical level payoffs to doing smart climo? • What does it take to do smart climo? • How should DoD attempt to do smart climo? • What partnerships are needed to do smart climo well? • What are the key first steps in doing smart climo? • What timeline should we set for doing smart climo? • What funding and other resources will be needed to do smart climo? Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

45. Contact Information Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School 254 Root Hall 589 Dyer Road Monterey, CA 93943-5114 831-656-2723  commercial 312-756-2723  DSN 831-241-0561 cell 831-656-3061  fax murphree@nps.edu murphrjt@nps.navy.smil.mil Smart Climatology: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php METOC Metrics: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/metrics/metrics_reports.html Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

46. Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

47. Smart Climatology – Backup and Background Reading Slides Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08

48. Smart Climatology: Key Concepts • Smart climo is the application of state-of-the-science climatology to supporting DoD operations. • State-of-the-science climatology is routinely and successfully used by civilian operational climate centers in the U.S., Europe, and many other countries to support civilian operations. • Prior studies have shown that climo support provided by DoD is well below the level of the state-of-the-science support provided by civilian operational climo centers. • The big shortcomings in DoD climo stem form the failure to keep up with modern data sets and modern analysis and forecasting methods. • Compared to the climo products that are available in the civilian realm, many DoD climo products are very inadequate and out of date, or simply do not exist (e.g., subsurface ocean currents are available in the civilian climos but not in the Navy climos). • Studies by NPS have shown that smart climo has a very high potential to significantly improve METOC support to warfighters. Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree@nps.edu

49. Smart Climatology: Key Concepts • The improvements in METOC support provided by smart climo would occur at all planning levels, from strategic to tactical. The tactical benefits would come from the large role climo plays in developing short range forecasts (e.g., short range model parameterizations, ICs, BCs, nudging, model selection, model evaluation). Tactical benefits also would come from helping warfighters avoid the need to deal with short range environmental problems. Smart climo can help planners select times, locations, routes, pre-positioning of personnel and equipment, and tactics that minimize the risk of short term problems of operation (e.g., determining route for carrier group to minimize risk of low cig/vis; determining best locations to pre-position heavy equipment). • Smart climo involves accounting for climate variations (e.g., El Nino; high wind regimes over the ocean; long term trends; etc;). But there is much more to smart climo than that. One of the first steps in doing smart climo is to work with state-of-the-science data to create state-of-the-science long term means. Then move on to analyzing and forecasting the impacts of climate variations. • NPS studies have also shown that much of the improvement in climo support could happen quickly and at relatively little cost, by leveraging off of existing and freely available civilian data sets, methods, and applications. • Providing routine smart climo support can be a complex process (as is the case for all other types of state-of-the-science METOC support). We need to develop appropriate ways to deal with this complexity in METOC education and training (as we have for other types of METOC support). Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree@nps.edu

50. Smart Climatology: Key Concepts • Most METOC personnel need to understand the basics of climatology, because climo is fundamental for all types of METOC analysis and forecasting. • Analyzing and forecasting the large scale, low frequency variations of the environment are the first steps in analyzing and forecasting the smaller and shorter term variations. Thus, in any forecast process, the first step should be to assess the state of the climate system. For example, in doing an extratropical synoptic weather forecast, start by looking at the extratropical longwave pattern, a key feature of extratropical climate. • Some uniformed personnel need to be experts in climo, especially the operational applications of smart atmospheric and oceanic climo (and, ideally, smart land and space climo too). These experts need to be supported by DoD civilian climo experts. • Smart climo support fits well into the hub, production center, and reachback cell concepts. The military and civilian staffs at these centers should include at least one climo expert per center. • The uniformed and civilian climo experts need to be given routine professional development opportunities so that they can keep up with the state of the science (e.g., opportunities to take short courses, attend and present at civilian conferences, participate in DoD climo workshops, etc.). Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree@nps.edu