Contribution to the development of a comprehensive framework of African Climate change Program: Economics of climate ad

1. Contribution to the development of a comprehensive framework of African Climate change Program:Economics of climate adaptation in Africa • Presented by • Musonda Mumba - UNEP • ***** • Youba Sokona, OSS • Thomas E Downing, SEI • Muyeye Chambwera, IIED • Paul Watkiss, SEI

2. The work • Kindly note that these are preliminary results of the UNEP AdapCost Project supported by NORAD, building on relevant studies supported by DFID, DANIDA & SIDA • This is therefore a join effort of: • Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) • Observatoire du Sahel et Sahara (OSS) • International Institute on Environment & Development (IIED) • AND • Others.

3. Work in relation to Comprehensive Framework • KINDLY note that its premature at this stage to complete the Comprehensive Framework that was called for in last year’s decision – as this needs to be a COLLECTIVE effort emanating from Africa. • HOWEVER, this work highlights some of the elements of the Comprehensive Framework.

4. Observations • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations; • Therefore adaptation to climate change is both a moral and survival imperative; • Adaptation is about development, but development under uncertainty, where capacity to manage risk determines progress; • Required is a new vision of how to do development under the pressure of new and increased risk.

5. Key messages (1) • Cost of climate adaptation in Africa is at least $1 billion now; • Economic assessments relate to different users and uses; • Reliable finance...for effective solutions; • Many entry points for adaptation; • Adaptation requires greater investment in generating and managing information and knowledge.

6. Key messages (2) • Adaptation planning should became a key imperative and not a marginal activity; • Surveillance is a prerequisite for planning; • Adaptation is contextual, should be driven by national agenda and no one size fits all; • New types of institutions or new institutional arrangements required; • Leadership for coordinated strategies.

7. African warming... • Observed warming is already more than can be explained without including greenhouse gases in global models; • Envelop of projectedwarming is veryserious

8. ...will have costly impacts... • Impacts of climate change in 2030could be 2.7% of GDP in Africa • Regional variations are significant • Source: initial results from a global integratedassessment model (FUND); UNEP AdaptCostand EC ClimateCost projects

9. ...that grow over time Source: Preliminary runs of FUND for the UNEP AdaptCost and EC ClimateCost projects

10. A sample of impacts in Africa

11. Water Resources25% of Africa’s population to experience water stress by 2020 (75-250 mil people) Areas of concern include: North Africa, Western Cape, Arid Lands of Kenya etc.

12. Loss of Ecosystem ServicesLoss of Corals and Bleaching – resulted in loss of tourism in KenyaBiodiversity Hotspots: Reduction of mammal species in National Parks up to 25-40 %

13. Oct 2006 Jan 74-déc 78 Lake Faguibine, in Mali has dried up due to diminished rainfall Une illustration : le Lac Faguibine (Mali) The situation will worsen if we fail to act now

14. Sea Level Rise Risk areas – Coast lines – case studies: Egypt, Benin, Kenya, Mozambique

15. Agriculture: Yield reduction of up to 50% - studies in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya…

16. Other examples of impacts in Africa • Cooling demand/Energy cost: Rising temps will increase cooling demand & energy costs – in Mediterranean for example; • Health, burden of disease: climate change already caused over 55,000 deaths/year due vector disease & diarrhoeal diseases; Already Malaria is spreading to high-altitude areas (Mt. Kenya, Rwenzori Mountain Region)

17. Updated Reasons for Concern EU 2°C-Guardrail (Smith et al. 2009 PNAS)

18. What do we know about the cost of climate change adaptation in Africa? • Estimates range from nearly a billion dollars now to over 50 billion dollars by 2030 • Low estimates for Africa are for present needs, lower bound of estimates based largely on global assessments; • High estimates for Africa are for 2020 to 2030 and the upper bound of estimates based largely on global assessments. • URGENTLY need to get national input.

19. Adaptation costs in Africa US$ billion; based on a variety of methods; SEI estimates are from report to AMCEN in 2008, see new estimates for AdaptCost project

20. Economic assessments of the cost of adaptation have different purposes • There is sufficient evidence for action: we should not wait until we know everything! • Project level: Screen each project for an opportunity to promote climate adaptation and reduce future impacts • Policy level: Establish a national and regional framework for action • Pathways: The most important strategic decisions are ones that enable a switch to a different pathway for development

21. Reliable finance leads to confidence in solutions and effective strategies • Some funding is on offer; little has been spent! • Green bars: existing adaptation funds, with a cumulative pledge (red line) at present of over $3 billion (global). Note the Adaptation Fund will have significant resources in the next few years. • Gold bars: expenditure by the funds, with a cumulative expenditure (purple line) of less than $300 million.

22. Adaptation initiatives in Africa • NAPAs for Least Developed Countries • Proliferation of Ad hoc projects and/or interventions (stocking exercise) • Supply driven and not consistent with NAPAs • Coherence and institutional issues • Ownership and alignment gaps

23. Adaptation initiatives in Africa • The Africa Adaptation Network – in better position to collate information on Adaptation across Africa. Countries need to know where information on specific issues can be found & WHO to approach in the first place.

24. Start with the urgent needs Understanding vulnerability and impacts Improving natural resource management Reducing disaster risks Build capacity; learn by doing Learn from pilot actions Scale up Strategic protection Anticipate migration Many entry points for adaptation

25. Types of Adaptation linked to: Vulnerability Assessments Capacity Piloting Adaptation Operational Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing

26. Example of URGENT Action: Awareness, Information, communication, early warning: Vulnerability Assessments: Build on NAPAs & existing platforms, link to multiple stressors e.g. desertification, health, pollution etc.; Capacity: Scale up existing organisations, networks, centres of excellence; Piloting Adaptation: Evaluate effect on poverty alleviation; Operational: Monitoring, learning from Actions. Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing

27. Example of Action required with 5-10 years: Crisis management, large scale migration: Vulnerability Assessments: Scoping potential “hot spots”, understand pathways in multiple stressor context; Capacity: Establish international capacity with national focal points. Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing

28. Example of Action required with 10-20 years – early preparation essential: Crisis management, large scale migration: Piloting Adaptation: Develop potential intervention models & approaches; Operational: Requires international strategies and Africa-wide Initiative. Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing

29. National leadership:coordinated, strategic approaches • National Adaptation Mechanism • National framework and funding • Building multi-stakeholder approaches • Sharing information and actions • Sustained over the coming decade • Confidence in coordinated action • Link to regional and global networks • Building the knowledge base • Reliable, timely funding • Pilot actions • Early, major investments for critical needs

30. Conclusions:Four key imperatives to consider • Scale: Match need and responses to the scale of growing numbers of people and ecosystems in danger • Speed: Waste no time because climate change is happening faster than predicted • Focus: Manage risk, build the resilience by reducing vulnerability • Integration: Consider at the same time risk reduction, adaptation, mitigation and human development goals

31. Thank you... For further information, see www.weADAPT.org Additional funding from DANIDA, DFID, NORAD, Sida (CforD)