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US COAL EXPORTS

US COAL EXPORTS. Andrew Whitehead SGH Martineau LLP London, Birmingham, Brussels. What I will cover…. US coal exports to : Europe India China including trends and prospects . The United States.

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US COAL EXPORTS

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  1. US COAL EXPORTS Andrew Whitehead SGH Martineau LLP London, Birmingham, Brussels

  2. What I will cover…. US coalexportsto: • Europe • India • China includingtrendsandprospects.

  3. The United States • Total US exports in 2011 c10% of production (up on 2000-2010 which averaged c5%): world’s 4th largest exporter (2/3 of which met coal) China & India Europe China & India http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3830

  4. Europe

  5. EU Coal Statistics

  6. Prospects For Coal In The EU Thermal coal • Coal accounts for c30% of power generation • Short term expansion (nuclear and mine closures), but reducing to 15% by 2030? • 2020 carbon reduction target • 2020 renewables target • Large Combustion Plant Directive – forced plant closures • EU ETS – full auctioning of permits from 2013 • Industrial Emissions Directive – removal of NOx from flue gases • Conversion of coal plant to biomass: fuel supply a key constraint but US/Canada a major supply source! • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – funding for pilot projects • UK policy – no new coal plant without CCS, and market support for CCS • Overall - markets remain weak. Met coal • Europe is destination for c50% US exports • Demand affected by recession • Steel production will recover, but difficult to predict when and with what vigour. Its re-emergence will be into a world of tight emissions controls and higher costs

  7. India

  8. Indian Coal Statistics

  9. Prospects For Coal In India Thermal coal • Coal accounts for c55% of power generation • World’s 3rd largest producer after China and US • Inefficient production – reliant on imports • Imports increasing – doubled since 2008 • Reduction of carbon emission intensity by 20-25% by 2020 • ‘India – Perform, Achieve and Trade System’        • National Action Plan on Climate Change Met coal • Long-term plan to expand steel industry • Vast domestic resource, but quality is poor and supply cannot keep up with demand • Imports predicted to more than double by 2015 • Most imports come from Australia

  10. China

  11. Chinese Coal Statistics

  12. Prospects For Coal In China Thermal coal • Coal accounts for c71% of power generation • World’s largest producer • 12th Five Year Plan: • 17% reduction in carbon intensity by 2012 • 9.5% or more of energy from renewable sources by 2015 • Costs of alternative energy sources falling (nuclear/wind/solar) • National carbon trading scheme expected by 2016 • Coal will remain dominant fuel source • Domestic supplies often used as a hedge against high international prices Met coal • Scarce domestic resource compared to thermal coal • 2012: projected 10% increase in imports over 2011

  13. Thank You Andrew Whitehead Senior Partner and Head of Energy and Climate Change T: + 44 (0)870 763 1528 M: + 44 (0)7831 160 753 E: andrew.whitehead@sghmartineau.com

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