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Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination from Shale Gas Fracturing: A Probabilistic Modelling Approach

Explore the risks to groundwater contamination from hydraulic fracturing for the UK shale gas industry using probabilistic modeling. Examining contaminant transport pathways, well integrity failures, and shale connections. Analysis of historical well integrity violations and improving data accuracy are discussed, with a focus on developing a numerical model to quantify violations and probabilities. The aim is to produce a comprehensive report on the impact of hydraulic fracturing on groundwater contamination risks.

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Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination from Shale Gas Fracturing: A Probabilistic Modelling Approach

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  1. A probabilistic modelling approach to assessing the risks to groundwater contamination from hydraulic fracturing for a UK shale gas industry Olivia Milton-Thompson

  2. Contaminant transport pathway Conventional abandoned oil well a Unconventional oil well b Permeable Rock Well integrity failure a Chalk Aquifer Infiltration b a Impermeable Rock Fracture propagation c Natural fracture connection d c e d Shale Connection with old oil well e www.wisecdt.org

  3. Well Integrity Casing Cement Formation SOURCE Hydrocarbon reservoir Permeable formations Coal seams Biogenic/thermogenic gases A D PATHWAYS A Through fractures in the cement B Between cement and casing C Through the cement D Between cement and formation E Through gaps in the cement B C E RECEPTOR Groundwater www.wisecdt.org

  4. Code Violations Highlighted all code violations linked to well integrity from the Pennsylvania database between 2009-2014 3.8% are violations (16,041 wells drilled) www.wisecdt.org

  5. Current and Future Work • Improve the data: • A more accurate search is needed to find all violations – needs to include key words from the comments section. • To analyse the data from 2015 to current (violation codes changed). • Create the model: • Develop a simple numerical model to quantify well violations to produce the probability distribution function. • Write the report: • Produce a report/paper on the development of Features, Events and Processes from hydraulic fracturing. www.wisecdt.org

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