Presented by: Steve Barker Policy, Research and Economic Analysis

1. Oklahoma Population Projections Through 2075 Presented by: Steve Barker Policy, Research and Economic Analysis

2. Today’s Topics of Discussion • Common projection methodology • Oklahoma’s population trends • Projections for Tulsa MSA counties • Questions and answers

3. Standard Projection Formula State level projections start with 2010 Decennial Census counts and follow forecasting routines developed by the US Census Bureau: + - + = + - + = -F- *Based on fertility rates and # of women of child bearing age -A- Population in the current year -B- Births in the current year -C- Deaths in the current year -D- Net migration -E- Population projection for the next year -E- Population projection for the year -F-Births in the next year* -G-Deaths in the next year -I- Population projection for the next year -H- Net migration

4. Who is included in projections? Everybody! • All civilian residents living within the state • US Armed Forces stationed within Oklahoma • Prisoners, including out of state prisoners held at private prisons located within the state

5. Projection of births and deaths Birth and death rates assumed to remain constant.

6. Oklahoma’s net migration history • 1970 to 1983: Oklahoma boomed • Peak annualgrowth of 3.6% in 1982 • Double digit annual percentage growth in some less populated counties • And then came the oil bust… • 1987: state’s annual population growth rate dropped to -1.3%.

7. Net migration: what’s the norm? • 1960 to 2011: Oklahoma’s population gain due to net migration averaged around 10,000 people annually • Swings from +80,500 in 1982 to -61,000 in 1987 • 1990 to today: Oklahoma’s average annual net migration gain just under 15,000

8. County projections handled differently • For 64 counties, used straight linear regression trendline formulas • Based on population patterns from 1960 to 2011 • For 13 counties, all in western Oklahoma, straight linear regression formulas gave unrealistic results • Alfalfa, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Grant, Greer, Harmon, Harper, Kiowa, Roger Mills, Tillman, Washita and Woods • For these 13 counties, a curved, or power, trendline was judged to be a better fit

9. Matching up two methodologies • Census Bureau population estimates based on birth, death and migration data • They have situations where sum of parts doesn’t equal the expected whole • They use a balancing figure that effectively serves as a “margin of error” • This report used similar approach • Between 2010 and 2075, the required adjustment averaged 0.2% of each year’s total population.

10. Oklahoma’s population trends

11. OK Population Concentration: 1910

12. OK Population Concentration: 2010

13. OK Population: Peak Decades

14. Population Growth: 1960 to 2010Totals Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs

15. Year Over Year Population Growth: 1960 to 2010 Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs

17. Projections by Age

18. Projections for Tulsa MSA counties

21. 71,916

23. 173,122

24. 934,215

25. 144,991

26. 1,503,330

27. Population Rankings 2012-2075

28. With all that said, predicting the future is a bit like this… So wish me luck!

29. For more information: www.okcommerce.gov/data Email: steve_barker@okcommerce.gov Twitter: @okdatacenter