Looking Into the Crystal Ball CCS- Where are we in 2020?

1. Looking Into the Crystal BallCCS- Where are we in 2020? Nils A. Røkke, SINTEF British-Norwegian CCS workshop April 23, 2008, London

2. Outline • Technology • Potentials • Market drivers and boundary conditions • 2020 case • Transport and storage • Summary and conclusions

3. No option

4. CO2 capture, transport and storage – main routes

5. Net plant efficiencies of the natural gas-fired cycles BIGCO2 project TCCS4:Jordal 5

6. Net plant efficiencies of coal fired cycles

7. Status for capture technologies- potential

8. We need to do both efficiency improvements and smarter plants, natural gas case c€/kWh Investment € Billion

9. So where will we be in 2020?

10. Project mapping, capture technology vs storage

11. Project Timeline – R&D, Demo and Full Scale

12. CCS development so far All full scale plants before 2012 are gas separation/LNG Pilot/demo ramp-up 2005-2010 Full scale ramp-up from 2013-2015 R&D projects have paved the ground

13. CCS by 2020 and beyond High Likely to see 10’s of plants by 2020 in operation Likely to see 50-150 plants by 2030 Extrapolated Low

14. CCS as mitigation tool, how much do we need to manage by 2100?

15. CCS deployment – How many plants in the future? Based on IPCC- 1000 Gton by 2100 IEA-ETP 2005: 12Gt by 2030 More optimistic: 100 by 2020, 260 by 2030 Coal: 1000 MW

16. Order of Magnitude Investments in CCS by 2100 • Based on IEA og IPCC we will need: • ~5000 CCS plants for CO2 capture and storage • Order of magnitude investment estimate (CCS only – not power plant) : • 2300 Billion £ (+100%, -40%) • Imagine having a 1% share?

17. By 2004: Development pace - Chinese el power Ref. *** 3.000  1000.6 TWh pa over 10 years (1994-2004) Capacity growth: • 2000-2004: 127 GWe * • 2005: 63 GWe ** • 2006: 102 GWe *** • 2007: 95 GWe(UBS prognosis) *** • Up to 2020: Another 400-450 GW * Source: * Guodon Sun: “Advanced Coal Technolgies in a Sustainable Energy System. Preparing and Preserving the Appropriate Technological Options in China”, Workshop Report from Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 19-20 Sep 2005. ** Li Zheng, Tsinghua University, Beijing *** The Wall Street Journal, June 15-17, 2007

18. Infrastructure – transport of CO2 • Up to now limited experience except from US CO2 onshore flooding networks (Permian Basin) • Network in the Netherlands for greenhouse CO2 fertilisation (OCAP network) • 5600 km CO2 EOR pipeines in the US • Snøhvit (150 km pipeline to offshore storage) • By 2020 • Some large scale developments have taken place but mostly 1-1 or 2-1 solutions (source-sink) • Infrastructure has so far been provided in governmental led initiatives/funding (less EOR) • CO2 transport has become a more widespread commercial buisness • Widely acknowledged that CO2 transport has more to it than rules of thumb for humidity and hydrate formation, trace species influence on thermodynamic properties and heat transfer in well head/pipeline knowledge has been gained

19. Storage – the ultimate quest New EU directives proposal 2008 : positive for future developments; inclusion in quota system, access, etc. North Sea likely to have storage from power plant operations in place On-shore, critical issue acceptance, pilots in operation, some large scale experiences gained EOR operations will take place given the oil price interval we now have seen Overarching: Storage capacity worldwide and source-sink matching Crucial to find, evaluate and qualify secure storage possibilities in for instance Asia and India

20. Summary • CCS is crucial for achieving reduction targets of greenhouse gases • By 2020 we will see some 10’s of plants and likely to see 100’s by 2030 • Early movers within the area are all gas separation projects or EOR • Pilots are ramping up now • Full scale ramps-up from 2012 • The framework is underway and will be in place by 2010-12 to allow more robust investment decisions • Huge market- drivers are different than other products • R&DD instrumental in achieving lower costs and widespread deployment