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Social Safety Nets and Productive Outcomes: Evidence and Implications for Bangladesh. Principal Investigator Ismat Ara Begum, PhD Department of Agricultural Economics BAU, Mymensingh-2202. Interim Report Prepared for Presentation at NFPCSP-FAO Workshop 28-29 November, 2012; Dhaka.
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Social Safety Nets and Productive Outcomes: Evidence and Implications for Bangladesh Principal Investigator Ismat Ara Begum, PhD Department of Agricultural Economics BAU, Mymensingh-2202 Interim Report Prepared for Presentation at NFPCSP-FAO Workshop 28-29 November, 2012; Dhaka
Introduction • Social safety net programs (SSNPs) are non-contributory transfer programs designed & implemented for the poor & the vulnerable groups • These groups are always a concern to the Bangladesh govt. • One of the main agenda of govt. is reduction of poverty. • Like many other developing countries, SSNPs can play a vital role to reduce poverty in Bangladesh. • Safety net spending is around 15% of the Bangladesh govt. expenditure & 24.57 % HHs received benefit from SSNPs (in 2010)
31.5 % of households in the country live in poverty • So, it remains unclear whether SSNPs only prevent entry into poverty or promoting exit from poverty or both • Studies investigated ONLY targeting, delivery mechanism, operational performance, alternative design etc. • However, evidence about the productive outcome impacts at household and community levels is scarce • This research will contribute to understand – • Whether selected SSNPs are generating productive outcomes & are contributing to households’ exit from poverty and food insecurity • What constraints or enabling factors are mediating these outcomes
Objectives • To document potential productive impacts of selected public safety nets at the household and community levels and the possible incentive framework behind those results at the two levels • To identify successful examples of government and NGO safety net interventions which foster productive outcomes • To draw implications for the design and implementation of SSN in Bangladesh and for complementarities among government agencies interventions
Goal Food Security Poverty reduction Credit accessibility Risk coping Preventing school drop-out Conceptual Framework • Household Level • Labor allocation (farm vs off farm, adults vs children) • Asset accumulation/protection • Change in use of inputs and techniques in crop production • Consumption/food security • Human capital accumulation • Investments • Risk coping strategies • Community Level • Goods and labour markets • Multiplier effects in local economy • Creation of community level assets/ infrastructure • Gender inequalities Impact • Alleviation of liquidity constraints • Certainty & predictability of income • Promoting child education • Optimal intrahousehold resource allocation Mechanism Pathways • Income effect • Productivity effect • Purchasing power effect Intervention Poor and Vulnerable People Social Safety net Programs Cash/Kind /Training
Hypothesis (Household level) Hypothesis: SSN interventions either cash or kind (conditional, unconditional, public works) may facilitate significant changes in income generating activities, labour allocation, accumulation of productive assets and productive investments of beneficiary household than non-beneficiary households. • Research Questions • What are the productive outcomes of selected public safety nets at the household level? • Methodology • For estimating impact we used propensity score matching (PSM) • We used HIES 2010 as a single cross section for identifying the treatment & control groups
Hypothesis (Local Economy Level) The community will benefit economically from social safety nets interventions through local goods & labour markets and multiplier effects • Research Questions • What are the productive outcomes of selected public safety nets at the community level? • Local goods (buying-selling activities, prices etc.) • Labour markets (new employment, employment diversification, wages etc.) • Multiplier effects (investment, employment, economic growth) • Methodology • HIES community dataset, FGD (30) and KII(20)
Study Phasing The study is designed to conduct into three phases • Phase 1 → Reviewing Literature, assess the productive impacts of selected SSNs at household level in Bangladesh (literature review and HIES data) • Phase 2→ presents the impact at community level and recent evidence and documents on the productive outcomes of the safety nets in Bangladesh & other countries (Field survey, HIES data & literature review) • Phase 3 → Deals with the issues of enhancing the productive outcomes of the SSNPs (Impact results, SSN-IMPACT matrix, FGDs & KIIs)
Phase 1: Literature review, estimating productive outcomes at household level • For estimating productive outcomes we considered - • Interventions with an explicit income-generation component • Old age allowance • Allowances for the widowed, destitute and deserted women • Agriculture rehabilitation • A combination of - • Cash for work, VGD, food for work & 100 days scheme • Interventions with no explicit income-generation component • Stipend for primary students • Stipend for secondary and higher secondary/female students
Table 1 : Number of beneficiary households of the selected SSNPs in HIES 2010
Table 2: Measurable productive outcome indicators at household level
Table 3 : Observable characteristics included as independent variables in the PSM
Conditional Independence Assumption Table 4: Average bias and test statistics, PSM Analysis
Common Support or overlap region Figure 1 : Common supports (Stipend for Primary Education Program) Figure 2 : Common supports (Agriculture Rehabilitation Program)
Table 5 : Impact of Old Age Allowance on productive outcomes 16
Table 7 : Impact of Agriculture Rehabilitation Program on productive outcomes • ARP is a promising means of safety net for the marginal & small farmers • This type of safety net for farming communities could contribute more to productive outcomes
Table 8 : Impact of Stipend for Primary Education Program on productive outcomes
Table 9 : Impact of Secondary & Higher Secondary Education Program
Phase 2: Outcomes at community level, evidence and documents on the productive outcomes RQ What are the productive outcomes of selected safety nets at the community level ? Is there any difference between the productive outcomes of male and female at community level? • FGD & KII • HIES community survey data collected
Phase 3: Enhancing the productive outcomes of the SSN Research Questions What are the successful examples of government & NGOs safety nets interventions which foster productive outcomes? What are the recommendations for adjustment and actions? What would be the alternative coordination/ integration mechanism at the local and central level? • For RQ (1) • International as well as regional programs similar to interventions has been reviewed • Particularly we aim to identify productive roles of widely cited safety net programs. • Program-impact matrix will be developed
Phase 3: Research question 2 & 3 • Based on the results in phase-I & 2, recommendations will be provided for adjustments & actions to be taken to maximize the productive outcomes • Recommendations will consider whether existing institutional & operational arrangements as well as policy frameworks can foster the changes recommended • Alternative coordination/integration mechanisms will also be explored