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Yinlong XU （ 许 吟隆 ） Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,

High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st Century and Applications in Impacts Assessments on Water Resources in China. Yinlong XU （ 许 吟隆 ） Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China

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Yinlong XU （ 许 吟隆 ） Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,

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  1. High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st Century and Applications in Impacts Assessments on Water Resources in China Yinlong XU （许 吟隆） Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn 24 Feb. 2008

  2. Content • Background of climate change research • Construction of high-resolution climate change scenarios with PRECIS • Climate change responses under SRES A2 & B2 GHGs emissions scenarios • Methodology to employ PRECIS outputs for impacts assessments • Some results of impacts assessments on Chinese natural ecosystems and water resources • Questions to discuss

  3. The warming is the most obvious in the mid- & high-latitudes The warming ratio in 1901－2000年） -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 ℃/decade

  4. The warming ratio in winter in 1976－2000 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 ℃/decade

  5. Annual mean temperature increase in past 50 years Warming Background The warming projection in IPCC AR4 There have been totally 22 warming winter already in China 近50年温度变化 Warming over China Data resources: Ding YH

  6. An introduction to downscaling GCMs Impacts Models Downscaling Horizontal resolution: ~110-600 km Local details

  7. Methods for downscaling • Simple interpolation • Statistical method • Regional climate model (RCM) • RCM + statistical

  8. A demo for RCM downscaling A demo for RCM downscaling HadAM3P PRECIS

  9. Downscaling with RCM GCM RCM Lateral Boundary Initial Conditions Other Forcings

  10. What is PRECIS? • PRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies • Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES climate scenarios over the world • Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacts assessments of climate change at the regional-level

  11. The climate change scenarios in China are developed based on SRES socio-economic assumptions SRES: IPCC 2000, Special Report on Emission Scenarios

  12. PRECIS Interface

  13. Job status of PRECIS • NCEP re-analysis data:1979-2003 • ECMWF re-analysis data:1957-2001 • ECMWF re-analysis data:1979-1993 • HadCM3（UK Met Office Hadley Centre） • Baseline (1961-1990):No1No2 No3 • A2 (2071-2100):No1 No2 No3 • B2 (2071-2100) :No1 only • A1B (1961-2100): No1 only • ECHAM4（Germany MPI） • A2 (1961-2100):No1 only • B2 (1961-2100) :No1 only

  14. Domain of PRECIS

  15. Terrain

  16. Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario—Maximum/minimum temperature

  17. Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario----precipitation

  18. Temperature precipitation Annual Annual Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under A2 scenario in 2080s relative to baseline (1961-1990) Winter Winter Summer Summer

  19. Temperature (C) and precipitation changes (%) in Southwest China and whole China（2071～2100 vs 1961～1990）

  20. Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1

  21. Extreme Climate Events Criteria-2

  22. Changes of Extreme Climate Events2071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES A2 • SU • b. CFD • c. GSL • d. R20mm • e. RX5day • f. SDII • (Unit: %)

  23. Changes of Extreme Climate Events2071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES B2 • SU • b. CFD • c. GSL • d. R20mm • e. RX5day • f. SDII • (Unit: %)

  24. Impacts Assessments of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture Weather Generator Daily Tmax/min, Pre, Srad Monthly T, P Crop Varities Crop Models HadCM2 ECHAM4 Soil Data Yield Changes; etc Management Data

  25. Impacts Assessments of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture Weather Generator ==>RCM Daily Tmax/min, Pre, Srad Crop models Crop Varities Soil Data Yield Changes, etc Management Data

  26. How to use future climate change scenariosfor impacts assessment Future scenarios Baseline Observation

  27. Impacts of CC on natural systems 2050s under B2 scenario 2080s under B2 scenario

  28. Changes of runoff in China A2与基准年 The drought would be enhanced along the Yellow River While the potential flooding risk along the Yangtze River would increase under SRES A2 scenario B2与基准年 Similar to A2 scenario, but amplitude is not so large as A2 scenario

  29. A2情景 不考虑气候变化 A2（2080S）与基准年 B2情景 气候变化对水资源的影响 全国径流深变化图 人均径流量变化图

  30. Questions to discuss • To generate higher-resolution climate scenarios • More research fields to expand • More analyses on CC I&V assessments • Case study on adaptation options • Addressing the uncertainties • Developing Provincial Strategies to Cope with CC

  31. China’s INC on CC &the1st Versionof National Assessment Report on CC Impacts

  32. Computer network to run PRECIS

  33. Thank you! Welcome you to visit Beijing!

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