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Chris Dodwell Knowledge Leader – International Climate & Energy

The Golden Age of Global Low Carbon Policy Making?. Chris Dodwell Knowledge Leader – International Climate & Energy UKELA – Climate Change and Energy Working Group Climate Change and Energy – Science, Law and Politics 24 April 2012. Leading Global Environmental Consultancy.

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Chris Dodwell Knowledge Leader – International Climate & Energy

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  1. The Golden Age of Global Low Carbon Policy Making? Chris Dodwell Knowledge Leader – International Climate & Energy UKELA – Climate Change and Energy Working Group Climate Change and Energy – Science, Law and Politics 24 April 2012

  2. Leading Global Environmental Consultancy AEA delivers over $120 million annually of energy, environmental, transportation, and climate policy support and program implementation services to: UK Government US Government European Commission International Institutions . …. energy efficiency, clean energy, transport, GHG inventories, air quality, carbon management, climate change strategies, adaptation, resource management ….

  3. OUTLINE • Global challenges: climate, energy, investment • Policy responses: economic signals & risk reduction mechanisms • Role of international climate regime • UK policy response • Application of lessons learned

  4. Inaction is not an option

  5. 2020 action: significant but not enough Implementing 2020 pledges is vital Action before 2020 must be strengthened Policy and investment groundwork for post-2020 reductions must be laid

  6. UNEP Bridging the Gap 2011

  7. IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

  8. Investment challenge: redirecting “investment as usual” • IEA ETP Baseline scenario requires investment between 2010 and 2050 of US$270 trillion • Total investment requirements under ambitious scenario increase by 17% to US$317 trillion • IEA: Annual investment in low carbon $750b by 2030, to £1.6t by 2050 • Bloomberg NEF: clean energy investment $263b in 2010 ($52b in 2004) but Q1 2012 lowest since 2009

  9. Policies for supporting low carbon technologies

  10. Combining policy and financial instruments effectively

  11. Economic signals – (a lot of) work in progress

  12. Reducing risks – international perspective Adapted from UNEP & partners/Vivid Economics 2009

  13. Reducing risks - blooming of many flowers

  14. Tracking climate finance & learning lessons • What contributions should be counted as “climate finance”? • How to tackle private sector flows? Measure • Distribution: where is climate finance going? • What forms of finance, data, format, methodologies, etc ? Report • Scale of support • Effectivenessof support • Cost-benefits of activities or wider benefits of investments Verify

  15. International negotiations: not all or nothing

  16. The Durban endgame: “the huddle to save the world” “a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force”

  17. Lessons learned: UK policy response Economic signals Reducing investment risk Long term perspective - both policy and investment

  18. Lessons learned: DECC 2050 Calculator – balancing energy and climate goals

  19. Lessons learned: UK Low Carbon Institutions • Climate Change Programme 2001 to deliver voluntary target 20% CO2 reductions by 2010 (tougher than UK’s Kyoto target) • Climate Change Program Review (CCPR) initiated in 2004 to put UK back on track but failed to achieve objectives • Political opportunity to strengthen low carbon institutions • NGO campaign + business community traction on climate change • Political competition – parties taking a strong stance on climate change • Reframing of climate change as an economic issue - Stern’s review for HMT of the Economics of Climate Change • Engaged political owner within government • Outcome: Office of Climate Change (2006) →Committee on Climate Change (2008) →formation of DECC (2008)

  20. Why a golden age for policy makers? • Countries across the world now facing up to the challenge of implementing their Copenhagen pledges • Loud, long, legal economic signals needed ... alongside new ways to crowd in private finance • Tailored to national circumstances ... supported by international sources • No need to wait for a global agreement – international action is already under way • Real potential to build effective policies using lessons learned from successes and failures to date

  21. AEA Chris Dodwell Knowledge Leader – International Climate Change & Energy AEA 6 New Street Square London EC4A 3BF United Kingdom E: chris.dodwell@aeat.co.uk W: www.aeat.com

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