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Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes

Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes. Guus Velders. Chapter 5: WMO/UNEP Ozone assessment: 2010. A focus on information and options for policymakers: Metrics: update of lifetimes, GWPs, ODPs New scenarios of ODSs from now-2100 Options for policymakers to reductions in ODSs

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Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes

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  1. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes Guus Velders

  2. Chapter 5: WMO/UNEP Ozone assessment: 2010 • A focus on information and options for policymakers: • Metrics: update of lifetimes, GWPs, ODPs • New scenarios of ODSs from now-2100 • Options for policymakers to reductions in ODSs • Impacts of other human activities • Scenarios of HFCs as ODS replacements • World avoided scenarios • Ozone impacts and climate impacts • Authors: John Daniel, Guus Velders (CLAa), Olaf Morgenstern, Darin Toohey, Tim Wallington, Donald Wuebbles (LA), and many others

  3. World avoided for ozone layer • Montreal Protocol is working • Large increases in mixing ratios prevented • Large ozone depletion prevented at poles, mid-latitudes and equator • Large increase in UV-B radiation prevented • Increase in adverse effects prevented

  4. World avoided for climate • Climate protection by Montreal Protocol • Large contribution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • ODSs potent greenhouse gases • By 2010, decrease in GWP-weighted emissions of 10 GtCO2-eq/yr • About 5 times Kyoto Protocol target for 2008-2012 • Reduction in radiative forcing of 0.23 W/m2 (13% of CO2) by 2010

  5. New scenarios constructed • Constraints for 1980-2008: • Observed mixing ratios 1980-2008 • Rate of change + lifetime  historic annual emissions • Bank per species for 2008 from TEAP (bottom up) • Production reported to UNEP for 1986-2008 • Assumptions for baseline 2009-2100: • Montreal Protocol limits • HCFCs extrapolation of historic growth in production • Annual release from bank = emission / bank • Options: • Zero production; emission; bank destruction

  6. Lifetimes of halocarbons • Revision: • CFC-114 from 300 to 190 yr • CFC-115 from 1700 to 1020 yr • HFC-23 from 270 to 222 yr • Only small changes to others HFCs and the HCFCs • Lifetimes affect: • GWPs, ODPs • Emissions derived from observations • Scenarios for future ODS concentrations and ozone layer • Closure of budget (bottom-up vs top-down) • CFC-11 (lifetime now 45 yr) important for all CFCs • CCl4 uncertainty in budget

  7. Future mixing ratios ODSs • Current baseline in black • Old (WMO, 2003, 2007) baselines in red • CFCs: • All mixing ratios decreasing • Small change cf 2003/2007 • CCl4 (carbon tetrachlorine) • Decreasing • Significant change cf 2003/2007 • CH3CCl3 (methyl chloroform) • Approaching zero

  8. Future mixing ratios ODSs • HCFCs: • Increasing use in developing countries • Increasing mixing ratios • Changes due to accelerated phase-out of 2007 • Halon 1211 decreasing • Halon 1301 still increasing (slightly)

  9. EESC: Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine • Metric for ozone layer depletion • EESC returns to 1980 levels by • 2046 for midlatitude • 2073 for Antarctic • Zero emissions past 2010 • 2033 (13 year earlier than baseline)

  10. Comparing ODS scenarios by different metrics • ODP-emissions - EESC • GWP-emissions - RF

  11. Impacts of new options • Success of the Montreal Protocol: • ODS options have less impact on future ozone than what has already been achieved • Other compounds and activities become relatively more important: • Climate changes through direct and indirect effects: CO2, CH4, N2O: temperature, dynamics, chemistry • Very-short lived species (VSLS) • Geoengineering by injection of sulphur in stratosphere • Emissions from rockets and aviations • Emissions related to biofuels

  12. Hypothetical cases for accelerating recovery Change EESC Change ozone Change emissions GtCO2-eq/yr 2010 Bank capture and destruction CFCs 11% 0.13% 7.9 Halons 14% 0.15% 0.4 HCFCs 4.8% 0.07% 4.9 Production stop after 2010 HCFCs 8.8% 0.15% 13.2 CH3Br for QPS 6.7% 0.09% 0.002 Emission stop after 2010 CCl4 7.6% 0.9 CH3CCl3 0.1% 0.004

  13. Hypothetical cases Change EESC Change ozone Change emissions GtCO2-eq/yr 2010 Bank capture and destruction CFCs 11% 0.13% 7.9 Halons 14% 0.15% 0.4 HCFCs 4.8% 0.07% 4.9 Production stop after 2010 HCFCs 8.8% 0.15% 13.2 CH3Br for QPS 6.7% 0.09% 0.002 Emission stop after 2010 CCl4 7.6% 0.9 CH3CCl3 0.1% 0.004 HFCs (more scenario 0% 0% up to 170 N2O dependent) 0.35% 130

  14. HFCs as ODS replacement • Global phase-out of CFCs and HCFCs  Much of application demand for refrigeration, air conditioning, heating and thermal-insulating foam production to be met by HFCs  Demand for HFCs increasing globally • New scenarios for HFC use through 2020 or 2050 • HFC growth expected especially in developing countries • HCFC phase-out 2013-2040

  15. HFC scenarios: emissions and radiative forcing • Scenarios: • Non-intervention (BAU) • Intervention through techn. developments, policy incentives • Climate benefits can be offset by projected increases in HFCs by 2050 • HFC emissions can reach 9-19% of CO2 by 2050

  16. Comparing emissions by different metrics • Emissions weighted by: • Mass • GWP • ODP

  17. CO2 Isobutane HFO-1234yf Mineral wool … Montreal Protocol initiated steps Thank you for your attention CFCs HCFCs HFCs ???

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