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W. Michael Robertson

W. Michael Robertson. 5120 Woodway Drive, Suite 9029 Contact: Peggy Tuck 713-624-4004 www.robertsonwealth.com “Securities offered through First Allied Securities, Inc.  Member: FINRA/SIPC”. ROBERTSON WEALTH MANAGEMENT.

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W. Michael Robertson

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  1. W. Michael Robertson

    5120 Woodway Drive, Suite 9029 Contact: Peggy Tuck 713-624-4004 www.robertsonwealth.com “Securities offered through First Allied Securities, Inc.  Member: FINRA/SIPC” ROBERTSON WEALTH MANAGEMENT
  2. “If you don’t understand what took the market up, you won’t understand what will take the market down.” Harry Dent
  3. Average Annual Family Spending by Age(5-year age groups) 40 50 60 70 80 30 20 Age 46-50
  4. Dow Average 1900-2012The last demographic trough was followed by a 20 fold return in stocks in 18 yearsDow Average soared from 600 to 12,000 1962Demographic Headwind starts 1937 1982DemographicTailwindStarts 1942Battle ofMidway
  5. The Spending Wave Births Lagged for Peak in Family Spending Dow Adjusted for Inflation Immigration-adjusted Births Lagged for Peak Spending
  6. S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points 6 GTM – U.S.
  7. Japan Nikkei Bubble From 1985-1995 Data Source: Bloomberg
  8. Change in Japanese Consumer Spending 1987 – 2007 Source: Japanese Family Income and Expenditure Survey
  9. Japanese Stocks vs. Consumer Spending 1987 – 2007 Nikkei Average Change in Consumer Spending Source: Japanese Family Income and Expenditure Survey
  10. The Only Chart You’ll Ever Need to ReadDemographics turn to tailwind in 2022, Peaks in the 46-50 Spending groupWorks in a 40 Year Cycle 2006Peak 2036Peak 2022 Trough 1966Peak From: “The Crash Ahead” by Harry S. Dent
  11. The Best House in a Bad Neighborhood *A global synchronized recession without the US*US Growing at 2%*Europe in recession*Japan in recession*China permanently slowing from 11% to 7%
  12. Implications of The Demographic Tailwind that Starts in 2022 *Labor Oversupply turns to a shortage*Unemployment rate falls to under 5%*Rising wages lead to consumer spending boom*Housing shortage leads to residential real estate boomno serious construction for 15 years*Soaring capital investment to meet this demand drives up interest rates*Inflation at long last returns*Both legal and illegal immigration accelerates*Subprime loans make a comeback
  13. Major Long Term Trends Reassert in the 2020’sbring back the “RISK ON” *The growth of the global population from 7 billion to 9 billion*The rise of the emerging market middle class, from 500 million to 2 billion*The scarcity of essential natural resources*Global food shortages accelerates *The rise of technology*Deflation ends, inflation resumes
  14. Population Changes 2010-2050 2 billion new peopleMore than half of the increase will be in Islamic countries.Islamic population growth from 1 to 2 billion Greatest growth in poorest countries The war against terrorism will not end in 4 yearsPopulation levels off in Latin America, Africa, ChinaChina’s one child policy has cut growth by 400 million China demographically turns into Japan in 20 yearsPopulation shrinks in Japan and levels off in EuropeUS population levels off at 400 million in 2050from the current 300 million The immigration advantage: Add 1%/year of GDP growth California jumps from 37 million to 50 millionsource: CIA Fact Book
  15. The 2020’s will be the “Risk On” Decade *Growing economy=“RISK ON”, buy:stocks, emerging marketscommoditiesprecious metals, especially silverforeign currenciesespecially the Australianand Canadian dollarscommercial real estate & multifamily dwellingssingle family homes*Avoid “RISK OFF” Assets, sell:US Treasury bondsCorporate bondsMuni bondsSovereign bonds
  16. The Only Chart You’ll Ever Need to ReadDemographics turn to tailwind in 2022, Peaks in the 46-50 Spending groupWorks in a 40 Year Cycle 2006Peak 2036Peak 2022 Trough 1966Peak From: “The Crash Ahead” by Harry S. Dent
  17. Long Term House Prices vs. Inflation Source: Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd Edition, Princeton University Press, 2005.

  18. 9/30/81

  19. CORPORATE BOND YIELDS MINUS STOCK EARNINGS YIELD Source: Bloomberg
  20. 3.63%
  21. ROBERTSON WEALTH MANAGEMENT Contact: Peggy Tuck 713-624-4004 ” Straight Talk Money 8-9am Business 1110 AM KTEK
  22. Do you have a strategy when your Taxes go up?
  23. 13% on amount over $ 20,000 and not exceeding $ 50,000 16% on amount over $ 50,000 and not exceeding $ 75,000 29% on amount over $ 75,000 and not exceeding $100,000 42% on amount over $100,000 and not exceeding $250,000 65% on amount over $250,000 and not exceeding $500,000 78% on amount over $500,000

    1915 tax form

  24. 1% on amount over $ 20,000 and not exceeding $ 50,000 2% on amount over $ 50,000 and not exceeding $ 75,000 3% on amount over $ 75,000 and not exceeding $100,000 4% on amount over $100,000 and not exceeding $250,000 5% on amount over $250,000 and not exceeding $500,000 6% on amount over $500,000

    1913 tax form

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